No exit strategy

The Phillies have reportedly come close to matching Billy Wagner’s demand for a guaranteed three-year deal around $9-10 million a season.

Though he hasn’t entertained offers from other clubs, another potential long-term, locked-in contract, like the one being offered, is exactly what the Phils don’t need, especially involving a 34-year-old, 5-9 fireballer with a history of injuries, at a position where it often pays to be creative.

Unless there’s an endless mound of cash to afford all the other parts needed to build and maintain a champion - like starting pitching - the Phils will once again hold property rights to the best closer in the National League sitting at home watching the playoffs on his flat screen.

The GM-less Phils are wise in keeping the lines of communication open, but foolish in taking the bait on a contract through 2008 layered in trade protection and incentives. Keep in mind that a no-trade clause could prevent the Phils from ever shedding Jim Thome and the $42 million remaining on his contract.

While it’s likely he’ll receive comparable offers from teams that can afford the luxury, make no mistake: the Phils are one of few teams that can actually afford him.

I see the winter unfolding with Wagner following the money trail toward security for himself and his family, and road that could lead back to Citizen’s Bank Park.

I'm not sure what bothers me most: three more years of Wagner, or the way the process is being handled. This approach lacks style and grace. Like always, the Phils are tap dancing with two left feet, this time with a CEO playing the part of general manager with no idea what it takes to waltz out a championship team.

It's bad enough the previous general manager gambled by keeping Wagner at the deadline instead of cashing in to get a young catcher and third baseman to fortify the future.

Forget hindsight on that one. How about the foresight this site and many others saw - a team that wasn't good enough to make the post-season, and didn't. I loath looking at it that way – in cold, hard black and white. But it was clearly an all or nothing gamble, and the Phils lost.

I wonder what the odds are of Wagner being a lights-out closer in 2008. Personally, I take the odds of Vicente Padilla becoming a dominant closer over the odds of Wagner still being an effective, healthy closer in three years, maybe even in two years.

It’s very troubling. Here they are at the crossroads, and they’ve already veered off course. Either lock in, or get nothing but a comp draft choice.

Then again, that’s the way the entire organization is built – on security, loyalty -- surrendering an exit strategy should they fail.

Comments

[Tom G]

I agree wholeheartedly J. Very frustrating.

[gr]

I agree as well and today did a breakdown of what closers are paid on my new, crude blog. he might be going to boston for nothing (to us) when we could have gotten something for him.

[Deanna]

It makes sense to me. Billy wants to be a closer for a team going to the postseason. The teams going to the postseason usually are the ones with huge payrolls. If he ups his offer, only a really rich (thus probably playoff-bound) team will be able to afford him.

While I'd love to see Billy get his 300th save in a Phillies uniform, he simply isn't worth $30m/3yr. No reliever is.

[ae]

what could we realistically have gotten for wagner? i know the sox wanted him, but they wouldn't have given up any pitching to get him (not that they really have any). their top trading-block prospect is a middle infielder, which does us no good. who else would he have gone to, keeping in mind that it would have had to be a contender?

and the padilla-as-closer scenario really scares me. maybe i'm the only one, but i just don't see it.

[enrico]

We could have gotten Youk and Shopach at least; The exact 2 positions we are weakest at. You probably could have moved Hanley to third, maybe?

The whole Owner/CEO acting as GM is what pisses me off the most.

[ae]

the impression i got was that shoppach was off-limits, with mirabelli already like 35 or something and varitek no spring chicken either. youkilis would instantly become a starter, but if he took over at 3B it would preclude moving ramirez there (has hanley ever played 3B?).

which gets down to my sticking point: shouldn't wagner be worth more in this admittedly retrospective hypothetical situation?

[MPN]

They could always try to non-tender Vicente and bring him back in the hopes of making him the set-up guy.

I'd really like to see them try to exploit this Derek Lowe situation in LA. Make an NBA-style trade of Lieberthal (their stud catcher is Russ Martin at AA) and prospects and take on the remainder of Lowe's commitment.... Lieby's salary and Lowe's would almost even out for next year and Randy's contract comes off the books at the end of next year. Lowe's GB/FB ratio was 2.78:1 last year....

After that, try to move Thome and Bell and Abreu... A lot of Peter Gammons' "Ifs" to be sure, but if Konerko leaves the Sox for greener ($) pastures and if the Phillies pick up a portion of the remainding financial load then maybe we could wrestle away someone like McCarthy or Marte or Crede and some prospects.

Sorry, rambling....

[J. Weitzel]

gr: The link to your site has been posted. Good stuff. Keep it going.

MPN: I'd jump on Lowe too, brother.

[Casey]

The whole Owner/CEO acting as GM is what pisses me off the most.

Me too, but I certainly wouldn't want Wade meeting with Wagner. So far so good, as nobody's made a move. Hopefully it can be put off until the new GM steps in.

Also, I don't think this is Monty playing GM, it's Amaro's trial by fire.

[Tom Durso]

If Wags signs elsewhere do we get compensatory draft picks? That would be reason alone to let him walk, never mind the chance to spend the money better elsewhere.

[J. Weitzel]

I believe they get one pick for it. About 75 percent certain of that though.

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