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Don’t blame the game for low ratings

It's official: the four-game sweep by the Chicago White Sox over the Houston Astros produced the lowest TV ratings in World Series history.

We've heard the reasons. Nobody cares about the White Sox and Astros. The game is too sluggish. It ends too late. The players aren't accessible.

Aren't these factors that occur nearly every season? Not every World Series can feature the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox. which drew 30 percent more viewers. Not every player can be a media darling like Gary Carter. And hasn’t baseball always been slow, with prime time games running into the wee hours of the night?

A common misconception says viewers dwindle as the clock keeps ticking, that most people tune in for the first inning and gradually tune out as the game continues. Not so. According to USA Today, playoff ratings were 31 percent higher than ratings for action prior to 11, a figure that was also reflected on the East Coast.

In general, critics are quick to pick on baseball. They don't understand why the game stubbornly resists change while others have embraced it.

Call me old fashioned, but I blame something else.

I blame Fox.

Fox fancies itself a big three network. It’s not. Of the six broadcast networks, Fox is the best-looking ugly stepchild of the bunch; it’s not a beauty queen like CBS, but it’s not the ugliest ugly duckling, either. That would be UPN.

Unlike NBC, CBS and ABC, networks with more established broadcast affiliates, Fox has never quite caught up with the big three. Since its launch in 1986, the network has provided one less hour of programming to fewer people, while the big three run prime time schedules from 8 p.m. to 11 p.m.

Unless you’re into cartoons, “American Idol,” Paris Hilton, or “House” (I hear good things about “House,” actually), than Fox isn’t for you.

To secure some actual ratings among a cross-section of viewers, Fox has thrown a ton of money at sports, including Major League Baseball, the National Football League and NASCAR. Fox just completed the fifth year of a six-year, $2.5 billion contract to broadcast baseball, including both league championship series and the World Series.

As it turns out, the World Series still holds up very well because it generates higher ratings than most prime-time programs. The Series drew the highest ratings for Fox since last season’s “Idol” finale. No wonder Fox is looking to extend its deal with Major League Baseball beyond 2006. Aside from Simon Cowell, it’s all they’ve got.

Purists should be rooting against that from happening. There's got to be a better way to televise the World Series than the way Fox does it. This is my biggest beef - they way it is being presented to us. Starting with play-by-play man Joe Buck and color analyst Tim McCarver, the overstuffed presentation starts with the broadcast pair and ends with the most grating graphics and sound effects package on television.

For every bloop, bleep and whoosh that accompanies a visual overlay, I’m left wondering which demographic a cartoon explaining a fastball is supposed to appeal to. Kids?

Eat my shorts.

To Fox’s defense, other factors have contributed to the demise of baseball, including some of the same reasons why ticket sales are down at the box office. People have more choices for their entertainment. In addition, a four-game sweep is never good television. Not only does it waste ad revenue, but the number of viewers typically increases the longer the Series goes.

Still, Fox bears much of the burden for why the fall classic isn't what it used to be. Instead of enhancing the experience, it has somehow found a way to take something away from it.

Phillies getting closer to installing new GM

With the list reportedly narrowed to Pat Gillick, Gerry Hunsicker and the two in-house candidates, a report in today’s Daily News indicates a new GM could be installed by midweek.

Marcus Hayes reported about the possibility of Phillies president David Montgomery making his decision sooner rather than later since Gillick and Hunsicker have been courted by other teams.

The Dodgers received permission from the Mariners to interview Gillick for their vacant GM position, and Hunsicker has put the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on standby while talking with the Phils.

Beer Leaguer take
This wasn’t the wide, all-encompassing list I had originally hoped for. By my count, the manager’s “search” had twice the candidates, and a broader spectrum of choices.

However, with the list all but whittled down to the final four, I’m pulling for a quick finish. The GM meetings are scheduled for next week, and with free agency upon them, it’s time for the team to move forward.

Baring a bigger offer from the Rays, Husicker could be the choice. He would be my choice.

Hunsicker, whose stamp can be seen all over the NL champion Astros, is more than qualified to take the reigns of a comparable team with comparable resources. The 55-year-old Collegeville native resigned from the Astros two seasons ago citing differences with owner Drayton McLean.

Hunsicker, Monty discuss saber-whatnow?
Good news for well-reasoned purists and stat heads alike if Hunsicker is installed as the next GM. Monty sat down with the Inquirer’s Todd Zolecki and discussed the old vs. new school:

"If you're young, you're more into statistics," Montgomery said. "If you're older, you're more into the head and feel. I actually think that it's a hybrid of those two situations. Gerry and I talked at length about this. I don't think the needle should point all one way or the other. I think, shame on you in this day and age if you don't use statistics to evaluate. But shame on you if you don't take a look at a person and try to know everything you can about them before you sign them as an amateur or before you trade for them or whatever. I think there's great value in each. There are a lot of theories there."

May I take your order?

(Summarized from the AP) -- Boston Red Sox assistant general manager Josh Byrnes was hired Friday as general manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The 35-year-old Byrnes is known for his elaborate statistical analysis of the game and its players and had been assistant GM of the Red Sox since Theo Epstein was hired as general manager in 2002.

Beerleaguer: Unless they're working at Taco Bell, general managers don't have names like "Josh."

He's not the youngest GM as it turns out. That honor would go to 28-year-old Jon Daniels, who was promoted to the GM position in Texas.

Seriously, how deep must Daniels' resume be? Go three spots down on his list of references and there's probably some girl named Trisha listed from Old Navy.

"Sure. I remember Josh. What's that? Did he interact well with senior scouting officials? Not sure, but he did a super job folding cargo shorts."

Before Hunsicker, there was Arbuckle

Thoughts on Phillies GM candidate Mike Arbuckle.

The big news today is that former Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker has been interviewed by the Phillies in a meeting that went largely unadvertised by the front office. The 55-year-old Hunsicker met with team president David Montgomery Thursday at Citizen’s Bank Park.

The day before, Montgomery sat down with assistant general manager Mike Arbuckle, a meeting that was largely glossed over by the press.

Arbuckle, 55, heads scouting and development and has held his post since 2001. He actually began scouting with the Phillies in 1979 before accepting a job scouting for the Braves for the next 12 years.

As it stands, the Phillies have one of the weakest farm systems in baseball, with gaping holes at nearly every position. In particular, pitching has been a sore spot for years, decades even, but it isn't entirely the fault of Arbuckle.

The farm system was cut so thin this season in terms of pitching that the Reading Phillies, the team’s Double-A franchise, opened 2005 with a starting rotation of pitchers all drafted by other clubs. From top to bottom, Reading fielded a much older team than is typical of Double-A, and a fair number of prospects, including outfielder Chris Roberson, are a little long of tooth to be still groomed in the minors.

In the last few years, a number of prospects, including Marlon Byrd, Juan Richardson, Danny Gonzalez and Jorge Padilla went belly-up. Two of the three highest-ranked prospects from last season, Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels, both had major setbacks.

The other one, Ryan Howard, produced a monster season, and there have been many of those from Arbuckle's tenure. The farm system went through something of a golden era in the late 90s. Before then, the Phillies produced next to nothing from the mid-80s to the early 90s.

When Arbuckle took over, the list of major leaguers started to pile up, a roster that today includes Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell, Brett Myers, Carlos Silva, Scott Rolen, Johnny Estrada, Randy Wolf, Adam Eaton and Ryan Madson.

Since that class graduated from the system, the waters have grown tepid. There are several reasons, many of them out of Arbuckle's hands.

To compensate for the talent void, the Phils have signed an unheard of number of minor league free agents fill holes on the farm. Some of those players, including relievers Travis Minix and Brian Sanches, along with infielder Danny Sandoval, could end up with jobs in the major leagues some day, but who knows?

Arbuckle has been forced to make something out of nothing really. Wade rarely traded for prospects, something all teams must do to fortify the farm, and the team also surrendered a handful of top draft choices by signing free agents.

Again, I can only speak on what I see on the field and in the stat sheets. Baseball America, a magazine that ranked the farm system 30th this season - dead last – had every right to do so, and that’s a black mark on Wade and also on Arbuckle.

I'm not convinced the Phils are doing a great job scouting, nor do I believe they've hired the right staff to handle the farm teams. The Phils have always been weak in dipping into international waters for talent, a problem that still exists today. Those duties are also connected to Arbuckle.

But it’s certainly not all black on his resume, at least what from I can tell. Arbuckle has been handcuffed perhaps more than any other scouting and development director in the game. The current state of the farm system shouldn’t deny a number of pluses, including a home-grown infield that could send three players to the All-Star game next season. Few teams in baseball can say the same.

No such thing as momentum in baseball? Phooey!

The National League ran into a buzzsaw ... again.

En route to their first World Series in 88 years, the White Sox won their final eight games, tying the 2004 Red Sox for the longest winning streak in a single postseason.

They marched right past the can’t miss big three of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt, along with their sure-fire closer Brad Lidge.

Good pitching beats good hitting? Guess not. The White Sox got back-to-back game-winning home runs from Scott "The Slammer" Podsednik and Geoff "Home Run" Blum, who combined for one ding dong in the regular season.

As for home field advantage, Ozzie and company stuffed that back in their faces, too, patiently outlasting Oswalt in Game 3, which basically ended any chance the Astros had this series.

In a piece that appeared in the Daily News a few months back, veteran robotoid Paul Hagen wrote that in baseball, momentum is "way overrated."

Since it was published, I’ve been waiting patiently for an opportunity to revisit that column and prove him wrong. What better chance than now, on the heals of an improbable, emotional, stone-cold four-game sweep in the most important sporting even in the world?

Mr. Hagen, with all do respect, momentum this.

With Cashman out, search must shift to overdrive

Yankees GM Brian Cashman, believed to be Phillies president David Montgomery's first choice to replace Ed Wade, is expected to sign a contract extension to remain in New York.

Meanwhile, the candidate considered the front runner among fans, former Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker, had reportedly not been contacted for an interview, as reported in today’s Inquirer.

It has also been reported that Montgomery would prefer to hire from outside the organization, but one can’t help but think Ruben Amaro Jr. and Mike Arbuckle have moved higher up on the list of possibilities.

Amaro and Arbuckle are expected to interview this week, with Amaro already involved in offseason affairs, including the organizational meetings and negotiations with closer Billy Wagner.

To my knowledge, since Wade was fired Oct. 10, the Phils have not started on the interview process, nor have they revealed a list of candidates. Meanwhile, Cashman and former Mets GM Jim Duquette have moved off the big board, with Duquette becoming vice president in Baltimore.

Beerleaguer: If Montgomery intends to hire from outside, then what in the name of all that is holy is he waiting for?

With free agency and winter meetings fast approaching, it would be ideal to have a GM in place with enough time to draft a plan to acquire starting pitching. The most pressing task remains a postseason birth, with starting pitching as the key. Minor league development and restructuring are next on the list. And wouldn't it be nice to have an authority figure with enough clout to levy fines if Vicente Padilla throws one more pitch in Nicaragua?

The team did its part to give them something to build on this season. It was a good year, with a nucleus that should keep them in the mix in '06. Now it's time for the organization's leadership to step up to the plate, if that's even possible.

Let's be realistic. If I’m setting odds, I’m making Amaro a 5-2 favorite, with Hunsicker next at 7-2. It would be very consistent with the way the Phils do business – hire from the inside first, or go with the people’s choice, which is clearly Hunsicker, a Bucks County native.

Whatever the choice, it must be handled with more urgency.

What’s with all the coaching hoopla?

With former Phillies skipper Larry Bowa set to coach third base for the Yankees next season, I’m wondering; can you remember a time when coaches occupied so many headlines?

Bowa would become third base coach for the most significant team in the sport. Bowa spent last season as an analyst for ESPN and XM Radio and has been a third base coach before, with the Phils from 1988 to 1996, Anaheim from 1997 to 1999, and Seattle in 2000. He is, for our purposes, the Leo Mazzone of third base coaches.

And speaking of the most famous coach in baseball, Mazzone’s departure after 15 years as the Braves pitching coach signifies, to some, the end of their NL East dynasty.

Mazzone, considered the best pitching coach in baseball, signed on with Baltimore for $500,000. The move marks a return to his home state of Maryland and reunites him with his long-time friend Sam Perlozzo, elevated from interim to full-time manager two weeks ago.

Closer to home, rookie third base coach Billy Dancy became the focus of much fan angst for sending and holding runners in costly spots. Dancy, a company man of 30 years himself, replaced organizational mainstay John Vuckovich, who was moved into a front office position.

Coach role overblown?
Jeff Schultz, columnist for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, believes Mazzone’s role with the Braves was overstated:

"Notwithstanding the hysteria that seems to be surrounding the imminent departure of the Braves’ pitching coach, I’m going to tell you at least two things Leo Mazzone has never done in Atlanta:

1). Thrown a pitch.

2). Called a pitch.

This isn’t meant as a slap at Mazzone. Clearly, when a team has had only one pitching coach during a run of 14 division titles, it means something. There becomes an escalating belief that Mazzone has become one of the better pitching coaches in baseball.

But this feeling that the Braves are suddenly going to crumble like Pompeii or that Mazzone even remotely approaches the importance of Bobby Cox or John Schuerholz to the organization represents the height of absurdity.

He doesn’t pitch.

He doesn’t call the pitches.

He’s basically a shrink and an adviser. That’s what pitching coaches do. Yes, the Braves have had some wonderful reclamation projects through the years. But if you’re going to give Mazzone credit for Jaret Wright, you had better put him on the hook for Dan Kolb. Here’s a guy who went from a pretty decent closer to a complete basket case. So the teachings of Leo didn’t apply to the Braves’ bullpen this season?

John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine — they were going to be great, with or without Mazzone. Even Mazzone would tell you that. He also would tell you that when it comes to handling a pitching staff, Bobby Cox may go down as the greatest manager in baseball history. A lot of pitchers have come through here. When they leave, they all say the same thing: "I loved pitching for Bobby."

Beerleaguer take
It all comes back to the same thing for me: what do coaches really do? Managers are more hands on, pitching coaches are next in line, but the rest of the staff is used mostly in an advisory capacity.

On the manager front, today's headlines are monopolized by White Sox skipper Ozzie Guillen, a whole new breed of manager who hangs out with players in the clubhouse and cracks wise.

Manager labels, like "players manager" never stick, in terms of which type is preferred. After a year and a half of intense baseball refocusing because of this site, it’s clearthat bullies don’t work, and a new era of player-friendly skippers are having noted success.

The worst implosion of the season occurred in Florida where conservative senior Jack McKeon saw his team crumble around him in the midst of a Wild Card race.

The opposite occurred in the AL Central, which saw two new breeds, Eric Wedge of the Indians and Guillen of the White Sox, lead their clubs to in their push to the postseason. Last year, it was former Phils boss Terry Francona, run out of town for being a players’ manager, that led the Red Sox back to their first World Title in ages.

Here's my thinking: In order for managers like Guillen to fit, there must be good leaders within the team itself. The White Sox appear to have them, just as the Red Sox had them last year in the form of players like Jason Varitek.

With managers, it's not the style that counts. It's the fit.

Burrell, Lofton go under the knife

(From the AP) Phillies outfielders Pat Burrell and Kenny Lofton had surgery last week and are expected to be ready for spring training.

Burrell had surgery Saturday to remove a bone spur, the team said Monday. Lofton underwent an operation in Los Angeles Friday to remove tissue from his left knee.

Burrell and Lofton join catcher Mike Lieberthal as Phillies who have had surgery in the last week.

Beerleaguer: Get it done, get it over with, and come back healthy for next season. That's how you do it. All three are expected back at full strength by the time pitchers and catchers report, though doubts continue to swirl on whether Lofton will be back next season.

Urbina incident puts Latino fame in perspective

The headline: Phillies reliever Ugueth Urbina was briefly questioned by police and released early Sunday after accusations that he assaulted several men after a welcome home party at his family’s home in Venezuela.

Police said a dispute broke out between Urbina and two of his workers over the whereabouts of a firearm. Five workers were injured, one of them suffering back burns.

Beerleaguer: I won’t even pretend to know anything about Venezuela. All I know is the headlines we read here in the United States paint the picture of a real hell.

It flies in the face of the way our Venezuelan players – chiefly Bobby Abreu and Urbina – regard their native country. Both players are extremely nationalistic and proud, rushing home as soon as the season ends. A noted image from 2005 finds Abreu wrapping himself in the Venezuelan flag after winning the home run derby.

To me, Sunday’s incident sounds like a drunken good time gone horribly and inexcusably wrong. Officials brought Urbina in for questioning "under confusing circumstances," and was released shortly after. I’d wager that everyone involved was a sloppy mess: gas; fire; machetes. Inexcusable, and no doubt the result of one too many. If legal action is taken, and Urbina is found guilty by a court, then he should be punished as you or I or anyone else would.

There’s an unfair stigma, however, that trouble follows our Latino players wherever they go. Granted, Urbina has had three run-ins with the law since 2000, but newspaper headlines can spread those notions. La Prensa or El Nacional, reporting on Vicente Padilla or the Venezuelan players, respectively, are often harbingers of bad news when they're cited in America.

Ballplayers can represent their country’s biggest and richest icons. Urbina, Abreu and even Tomas Perez are treated as gods, making for potential volatile situations other players might not encounter. American players would go largely unnoticed in a club, where players like Abreu are constantly surrounded by an entourage of hired muscle.

This degree of stardom is something stateside fans will never fully appreciate. Last season, Urbina's mother was kidnapped and held for $6 million ransom by drug traffickers. She was eventually found alive in a mountainous area of the country.

Since the headline broke last week, I haven’t seen anything move over the wire, indicating the incident could blow over.

Urbina has stated he only wants to return to Philadelphia if he becomes a full-time closer, so we may have seen the last of Urbina in a Phillies uniform.

DH rule creates jobs in both leagues

A recent AOL-AP survey showed that 69 percent think the designated hitter rule should be expanded to both leagues or scrapped. American League fans were more likely than National League fans to favor the current system.

(Summarized from the AP) - The survey found 40 percent of fans think neither league should have the rule, while 29 percent say the National League should adopt it and 30 percent said things should stay as they are.

The American League designated hitter rule has been in effect since 1973. Many purists believe the DH takes away from the strategy of the game by not forcing a manager to decide when to pinch hit for a pitcher, among other things.

White Sox slugger Frank Thomas, a DH in his later years, believes the rule is a good idea.

"It's extended many careers. I think it should be universal - it would mean more jobs in baseball," he said. "Who wants to see pitchers hit? Nobody."

Beer Leaguer take
The “more jobs in baseball” and “extending careers” argument in favor of the DH is a little blind to how it impacts the National League. The rule extends and creates careers in both leagues, perhaps opening up more diverse opportunities in the NL.

Having no DH creates more chances for versatile specialists, like utility infielder Tomas Perez, who wouldn’t have the same opportunites at his age in the American League. Perez played for Toronto from 1995-2000, and has been with the Phils ever since.

If I had a vote, I'd elect for the DH to stay as it is. If American League fans want the DH rule to stay, then it should stay. I don’t watch the American League, so it isn’t my place to make the call.

The strategy involving pinch-hitting goes without saying. NL teams are also forced to make tougher choices with the 25-man roster, from bench to bullpen. Some teams will carry players specifically because they’re good at bunting (Pete Orr, Atlanta). Others, like the Phils, carry two or more utility infielders, like Perez and Ramon Martinez. Having Perez, a switch-hitter who can man all four infield positions, makes life a little easier for a NL manager.

Personally, I’d rather see a career extended for doing the little things right, rather than strict offense. That’s what’s happened with Perez, who did not commit an error in 206 chances last season, did not homer, and hit .233 with a futile .277 SLG.

He's one of the worst hitters in baseball, but he’ll almost certainly return next season ... and deserves to. Just as long as he lays off the high ones.

Umpires not so blind, fans say

(From the AP): Eight in 10 people think major league umpires are doing a good job, according to a recent AP-AOL poll.

The survey comes on the heals of the American League Championship Series controversy when home plate umpire Doug Eddings ruled a third strike had hit the dirt, allowing Chicago White Sox hitter A.J. Pierzynski to scamper to first base and eventually score the winning run.

Beerleaguer: Aside from Eddings, only one umpire comes to mind when I think of the worst officials in the league: CB Buckner. Buckner doesn’t need to be crouching behind the plate to make a bad call. He can blow it from third, second and first. Joe Brinkman receives dishonorable mention.

Still, Major League officials are Rhodes scholars compared to the hacks working Big Ten football.

WS umpire crew named
(From MLB.com) Cowboy Joe West will call the balls and strikes in Game One. West, working his third World Series and 13th post season series, will be joined by Derryl Cousins (3rd WS) in his 11th post season assignment, Jerry Layne (1st WS) in his eighth post season assignment, Angel Hernandez (2nd WS) in his 10th post season assignment, Gary Cederstrom (1st WS) in his sixth post season assignment, and Jeff Nelson (1st WS) also in his sixth post season assignment.

Young arm(s) for sale?

The Phils may be in position to shop young pitching, including 23-year-old Robinson Tejeda.

Much has been written about the Phils need for starting pitching and ways to get more of it. Free agency is an option, though choices are limited, and trading away existing stars may only yield prospects.

It may sound crazy, but the Phils could be in a good shape to trade young arms. In spring training, the Phils will have a potential logjam of young pitchers to fill limited spots in the rotation, and even less opportunity should the Phils acquire a veteran some other way.

The list of Phils who could be competing for a starting job include Gavin Floyd, Ryan Madson, Cole Hamels, Eude Brito and Robinson Tejeda – in addition to some other minor leaguers who may get a chance to compete in spring training.

The sudden surplus of borderline big-league arms could be tasty for small-market buyers looking to add a fifth starter. That means the Phils actually could have chips to trade that aren’t established veterans like Bobby Abreu.

The Phils can’t, and shouldn’t, try converting all the runners-up into relievers. Only one of them – Madson – has had anything close to consistent success in the bullpen.

Conversely, only one – Tejeda – has had success as a starter, yet his name is mentioned least when considering next year’s rotation.

It’s possible that a trade of someone like Tejeda - the pitcher I’d deal first - could net a young catcher or third baseman. Catcher and third base represent positions the Phils are years away from developing in the minors, a situation that may come to a head as early as next season.

The reason I’d deal Tejeda is that his "effective wild" style is something teams will learn to exploit the more they face him. He’s never been anything more than a moderate prospect in the system, even surrendering a league-worst 29 homers two seasons ago in Double-A Reading, where he went 8-14 with a 5.15 ERA.

Looking back, the opposition made it very easy on Tejeda on many occasions, who squeezed out of countless jams simply because batters weren’t smart enough to lay off fastballs well out of the zone. Likewise in his brief duty as starter, Brito had the same effect with his slider.

Shoppers might bite on Tejeda's 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA, with success as both a starter and reliever this season.

A quick look at Baseball America reveals a fairly weak lot of minor league catchers, but a moderate-to-strong class of third basemen.

Of course, any trade involving the young arms on this list need to wait to see how the bullpen shakes down, or whether the Phils decide to bring back Vicente Padilla. The last thing they need is to spread themselves too thin before the first pitch of the season.

Minix could be in mix in '06

Travis Minix has continued to dominate out of the bullpen for the Surprise Scorpions of the Arizona Fall League. The 28-year-old right-hander appears to be on the fast track for a spot in the Phillies' bullpen.

So far in five games and 7 2-3 innings with the Scorpions, Minix has a 1.17 ERA and has allowed only 1 earned run and 5 hits, striking out five and walking three.

At this pace, the 6-1 right-hander will finished with a sub 2.00 ERA in Double-A, Triple-A and in the AFL.

Reading (1.84 ERA, 58 2-3 innings, 7 saves, 55/15 strikeout/walk ratio)
Scranton (1.57 ERA, 17 2-3 innings)

Minix is another example of a player who won’t be picked up on Baseball America’s radar because of his age, but could find himself pitching in the majors very soon because of possible openings in the bullpen. With uncertainty surrounding Billy Wagner and Ugueth Urbina, along with the continued deterioration of Rheal Cormier, the Phils may need to fill two or more holes.

Minix was a solid producer in the Devil Rays organization for six seasons, pitching with Triple-A Durham in 2004, but was unexpectedly released on March 29. The Phillies signed him the very next day.

Originally selected in the 23rd round of the June '99 draft, Minix features a fastball, slider and changeup with 88-89 speed and sharp location. R-Phils pitching coach Tom Filer called his slider the best in the Eastern League back in June.

Four other Phillies are playing alongside Minix this fall, including center fielder Michael Bourn, starting pitcher Scott Mathieson, and relief pitchers Ryan Cameron and Brian Sanches.

Sanches is another promissing reliever who was picked up as a minor league free agent two seasons ago. So far, the right-handed Texan has a 1.29 ERA in 7 innings with the Scorpions. Sanches pitched the entire season with the Red Barons, going 5-3 with a 3.69 ERA in relief, compiling a very good 75/27 strkeout/walk ratio.

The Scorpions share players from the Astros, Royals, Phillies, Angels and Cardinals.

Of note, top prospect Jered Weaver is on the roster but has been bombed so far. In three games, the Angels' first-round pick in the 2004 draft is 0-2 with a 8.59 ERA. Meanwhile, Mathieson has dominated, striking out 22 batters in 11 2-3 innings for a 3.18 ERA.

Links
For more on Travis Minix: click here.
For updates on the five Phillies playing for the Scorpions: click here.
For Surprise Scorpions stats: click here.

No exit strategy

The Phillies have reportedly come close to matching Billy Wagner’s demand for a guaranteed three-year deal around $9-10 million a season.

Though he hasn’t entertained offers from other clubs, another potential long-term, locked-in contract, like the one being offered, is exactly what the Phils don’t need, especially involving a 34-year-old, 5-9 fireballer with a history of injuries, at a position where it often pays to be creative.

Unless there’s an endless mound of cash to afford all the other parts needed to build and maintain a champion - like starting pitching - the Phils will once again hold property rights to the best closer in the National League sitting at home watching the playoffs on his flat screen.

The GM-less Phils are wise in keeping the lines of communication open, but foolish in taking the bait on a contract through 2008 layered in trade protection and incentives. Keep in mind that a no-trade clause could prevent the Phils from ever shedding Jim Thome and the $42 million remaining on his contract.

While it’s likely he’ll receive comparable offers from teams that can afford the luxury, make no mistake: the Phils are one of few teams that can actually afford him.

I see the winter unfolding with Wagner following the money trail toward security for himself and his family, and road that could lead back to Citizen’s Bank Park.

I'm not sure what bothers me most: three more years of Wagner, or the way the process is being handled. This approach lacks style and grace. Like always, the Phils are tap dancing with two left feet, this time with a CEO playing the part of general manager with no idea what it takes to waltz out a championship team.

It's bad enough the previous general manager gambled by keeping Wagner at the deadline instead of cashing in to get a young catcher and third baseman to fortify the future.

Forget hindsight on that one. How about the foresight this site and many others saw - a team that wasn't good enough to make the post-season, and didn't. I loath looking at it that way – in cold, hard black and white. But it was clearly an all or nothing gamble, and the Phils lost.

I wonder what the odds are of Wagner being a lights-out closer in 2008. Personally, I take the odds of Vicente Padilla becoming a dominant closer over the odds of Wagner still being an effective, healthy closer in three years, maybe even in two years.

It’s very troubling. Here they are at the crossroads, and they’ve already veered off course. Either lock in, or get nothing but a comp draft choice.

Then again, that’s the way the entire organization is built – on security, loyalty -- surrendering an exit strategy should they fail.

Community stat exchange: Batting averages

A chance for readers to share interesting stats regarding the Phillies offense. Today, my contribution is mom-and-pop batting averages. Pour yourself a glass of milk and crack open the cookie jar.

Many of you chimed in yesterday with some excellent stats regarding the Phillies offense. I want to keep the discussion going today with a few things I’ve noticed looking over the final numbers.

It’s hard not to compare batting averages because I’ve been doing it since age three. I know batting average is yesterday's news, especially here in cyberspace, but it’s funny how lineups are still married to this age-old brand.

Batting average is like the Harry Kalas of stats: Simple and classic.

Looking at the final averages, the team separates into three distinct clumps.

At the top are the two center fielders, led by Kenny Lofton (.335), followed by Jason Michaels (.305). Throw in Placido Polanco (.316) and the best base hitters on the team all batted second this season.

The bulk of power hitting or dynamic regulars finished in the .290 to .280 range, which is really good: Chase Utley (.291); Jimmy Rollins (.290); Ryan Howard (.288); Bobby Abreu (.286); Pat Burrell (.281).

There’s a significant drop when we get to the players at the bottom of the order: Mike Lieberthal (.263); Todd Pratt (.253); David Bell (.248). That’s not too dreadful for seven and eight hitters, and the drop is what you would expect when you bury the worst hitters at the bottom .

The pinch hitters all finished near one another in futility. With the exception of Ramon Martinez (.286), who got a lot of good looks against left-handed pitching, Tomas Perez (.233), Michael Tucker (.222), Endy Chavez (.215) and Jose Offerman (.182) rounded out the light-hitting bench.

It’s funny how after all these years, batting average is still connected to lineup construction, almost like the numbers define the order and the order defines the numbers.

As for the pitchers, the Phillies hit .133, which ranked 11th in the National League. Brett Myers wasn't just the best hitting pitcher in his own mind. He hit .154, the best among the starters. But overall ... hey-hey! How about that Billy Wagner, who went 1-3 (.333).

The catchers
Todd Pratt and Mike Lieberthal contributed almost identical comparitive offense this season.

Pratt: 175 AB; .251 BA; .726 OPS; 7 HR; 23 RBI
Lieberthal: 392 AB; .263 BA; .755 OPS; 12 HR; 47 RBI

The only major difference I see it that Pratt strikes out at a phenominal clip – 50 times this season, compared to 35 for Lieby.

Taking a look at runs created per game, an advanced stat from the Hardball Times:

Pratt: 4.7 RC/G
Lieberthal: 4.6 RC/G

Can’t get much closer than that ... unless you’re Ramon "Muscles" Martinez:

Martinez: 4.7 RC/G

* Runs Created Per Game: Invented by Grand Puba nerd Bill James, RC is a very good measure of the number of runs a batter truly contributed to his team’s offense. The basic formula for RC is OBP*TB, but it has evolved into over fourteen different versions. Hardball Times use the most complicated version, which includes the impact of hitting well with runners in scoring position, and is adjusted for ballpark impact. RC/G refers to Runs Created Per Game, which Runs Created divided by the number of outs made by the batter, times 27.

Unreal

ESPN columnist Jayson Stark on the most unbelievable moment of the 2005 baseball season:

"It was only one swing of Albert Pujols' bat. It was only one baseball, heading for history. It was only one moment in the life of two franchises.

Down to their final out, Albert Pujols saved the Cardinals' season with a three-run homer to win Game 5.

But it was a swing, a baseball, a moment that seemed to change the world.

In an instant, in one click of a camera lens, in one quick gulp of air, in one flash of Albert Pujols' bat, victory dissolved into defeat. Euphoria transformed into disbelief. Ear-drum-rattling noise turned to how'd-that-happen silence.

And the Houston Astros' trip to the first World Series in the life of their franchise had just taken an unexpected detour -- back to a nearly defunct stadium in St. Louis that had been abruptly rescued from the implosion button for one more night of baseball. Or more.

What just happened? Did we really see what we just saw?

We could have sworn we saw the great Albert Pujols hit a season-saving three-run home run off the unhittable, untouchable, unbeatable Brad Lidge. With two outs in the ninth inning. But were we sure this was real?

Beerleaguer: I'm with Angelo Cataldi, who said this morning on WIP radio that he took great pleasure in seeing the stone cold looks on the faces of the Astros crowd. I was in that place just three days ago, watching a certain college football game that will never be spoken of again.

Believe it or not miscellaneous batting stats

The Phillies fielded a surprisingly efficient offense in 2005. Here are a few hard to believe stats, compiled from MLB.com and the Hardball Times.

• Myth: The Phillies are impatient hitters and don’t take enough pitches. Nope. The Phils saw 24,388 pitches this season, the highest in the National League. (See reader comments for a more appropriate stat.)
• The Phils were adept at knowing when to steal a base. A 81.1 percent stolen base percentage is the highest in the National League by a wide margin.
• Teams respected the Phils bats: 76 intentional walks represent the best total in the NL by a fairly wide margin.
• Myth: The Phillies offense wastes innings. That may be true in certain games, but it’s false overall: 6,345 plate appearances was the best in the NL.
• Myth: The Phils ground into too many double plays. Maybe David Bell does, but as a team, they only did it 107 times, second last in the league.
• Myth: The Phils don’t have a good Moneyball lineup. Actually, they have one of the best, with a .772 team OPS, second best in the NL behind the Reds.
• Also of note: 46 sacrifice flies were fourth best in the National League.
• Myth: As the Pennsylvania Dutchies would say here in Berks County, the Phils "make awwt" too much. Well, 4,182 outs is the fewest in the NL. Pretty meaningless, but fun.
• Myth: The Phils don't hit with runners in scoring position. Actually, .278 was second best in the NL.
• The Phils were creative at reaching base and advancing runners without getting hits. According to ESPN's Secondary Average stat - a way to look at a player's extra bases gained independent of batting average (TB - H + BB + SB - CS) / AB) - they were the second best team in the NL in this category with a .285 average.

Phillies could follow White Sox footsteps

The White Sox weren’t afraid to shake things up in the off-season, and neither should the Phillies.

It’s been extremely difficult to watch the Championship Series. For one, the Astros edged the Phils by one game in the Wild Card, and second, two of the four teams – the Padres and Braves – don’t have anything on our hometown nine.

It’s been even more difficult watching the White Sox charge to within one game of the World Series. Why? The Southsiders have essentially been the American League version of the Phillies for the past few seasons, and are now one step ahead in their quest for a championship.

In 2004, both squads finished second but out of the running for the pennant. The Phils went 86-76 and the White Sox went 83-79, both considered underachieving campaigns.

Like the Phils, the White Sox had assembled a core they believed they could not win without, including outfielder Magglio Ordonez, a lifetime .298 hitter, and Carlos Lee, coming off a year in which he hit .305, 99 RBIs and 31 homers. In addition, both teams have former superstar sluggers in Frank Thomas and Jim Thome, and it’s likely the Phils won’t be able to shake Thome free, just as Thomas has been lingering around Chicago forever.

Last winter, the White Sox cut ties with the free agent Ordonez by letting him walk to Detroit. They continued to gut their outfield by trading Lee to the Brewers for Scott Podsednik, coming off a sophomore slump in his second season with the Brewers.

The White Sox signed Jermaine Dye to fill out the outfield, Tadahito Iguchi for second base, and signed catcher A.J. Pierzynski to a cheap one-year deal.

The payoffs have been huge, especially in the outfield. Podsednik gave them just the speed presence they needed at the top of the lineup, and Dye matched Lee’s performance in 2004 with 31 homers in pull hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field.

Think about the White Sox pitching staff before the season. Was it much better than the Phils? Not really. Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, Jose Contreras and Orlando Hernandez represented a concern three through five. Indeed, like the White Sox, the Phils may be forced to bring back basically the same pitching staff next season due to a scarcity of arms on the market.

In the bullpen, they got creative when Shingo Takatsu flopped, all because they made a savvy signing with Dustin Hermanson, who was converted to closer in May and delivered 34 saves for the AL Central Champs (Vicente Padilla anyone?)

These weren’t necessarily moves to do anything other than shake things up a bit. Lee and Ordonez, like Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell, had become the face of underachieving and the team believed a change had to be made. They were also good economic moves that yielded great all-around production by making the initial sacrifice of high-priced offense.

Leave a memo on the desk of the vacant general manager’s office: the White Sox are worth emulating. 

No thanks to Steve Finley

Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make. Here's one Ed Wade got right.

A year ago, the name on everyone’s lips was Steve Finley, the 39-year-old center fielder who hit 36 home runs between Arizona and Los Angeles. The soon-to-be free agent was considered by some the most attainable marquee position player on the market that could fill a need area for the Phillies.

I remember posting Finley updates myself – whether or not he was open to playing on the east coast, whether the Phillies were in contact with him, etc. Finley was courted by several other teams, including the Giants, Padres and Tigers, all pursuing him harder than the Phils.

Eventually, he signed a two-year deal with Anaheim worth between $15 and $20 million.

Well, the Angels are in the ALCS, no thanks to Steve. So far, the pile of money has gone toward an oft-injured .222 hitter, who hit 12 home runs and lost his starting position in late August. He has one year remaining on the contract and already stated he has no intention of retiring.

So far in the postseason, Finley is 2-14 with no extra base hits and didn’t play in yesterday’s win.

Good FA pitcher passes: Eric Milton, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright. Players they could have had but did not pursue, and stank anyway: Paul Wilson, Russ Ortiz, Jose Lima, Al Leiter. Maybe could have helped, maybe not: David Wells, Brad Radke, Matt Clement, Derek Lowe. Missed opportunity on the cheap: Esteban Loaiza. Good short-term value, but fans would have had a fit: Paul Byrd, Kevin Millwood.

Allentown to house $34 million Triple-A stadium

Team officials are expected to secure a major league affiliation next year.

(Summarized from today's Reading Eagle) -- Allentown officials have announced that a 7,000-seat stadium will be built on the city’s east side, scheduled to house a Triple-A ballclub by 2008.

Grace Baseball Company, operated by Reading Phillies owner Craig Stein and Trenton Thunder president and managing partner Joe Finley, entered into a 29-year lease agreement with Lehigh County.

Construction will be funded with revenue from the county’s hotel tax, a bond issue and a $17 million state grant.

The independent Allentown Ambassadors were the last professional team to play in the city, but folded three weeks before the 2004 season.

Beerleaguer take
The Lehigh Valley, encompassing Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton and Phillipsburg, NJ, has been asking for legitimate professional baseball for an eternity. With Stein and Finley in charge, expect another minor league success story.

The new stadium will be built at the site of Allentown’s former Agere building on the east side of town, near the airport and accessible by Route 22.

The Lehigh Valley is starved for entertainment and rich with suburban families with serious dough. This is a slam dunk venture for Stein and Finley, and could work well as either a Phillies or Yankees franchise.

The region essentially splits allegiance between Philadelphia and New York, with more Yankees and Mets fans concentrated closer to the New Jersey boarder.

Life in the new Phillies era

Tom Goodman summarized the post-Ed Wade era this afternoon on Swing and a Miss:

"You have to hand it to Dave Montgomery and the rest of the Phils’ ownership.  First, they announce Charlie Manuel and his entire staff will be returning for 2006.  Then, about a week later, they fire the GM.  And finally, they announce the incoming GM will have the ultimate decision on who manages the team.

Not an auspicious beginning to the 'new era.' "

Beerleaguer: What we're seeing proves that the Phillies' problems extend far beyond the general manager. Hearing Phillies President David Montgomery justify his decision on WIP's morning show yesterday told me this team is operating without a plan and was unprepared for this firing. With Monty in charge, I am not optimistic that the right choice will be made regarding the GM position.

Wagner decision should be in hands of new GM

For the second morning in a row, Rich Hofmann of the Daily News has the most intelligent things to say in the post-Ed Wade era.

Hofmann is bothered that David Montgomery is meeting with Billy Wagner today to discuss a possible resigning, a decision that should be in the hands of the new GM:

"The first mistake of the post-Wade era is about to be committed by the Phillies. David Montgomery, Ruben Amaro Jr., and whoever else makes up the merry band of wise men in charge of the organization are scheduled to visit Billy Wagner and his agent today in an attempt to work out a new contract with their closer.

They should cancel the meeting instead.

This has nothing to do with the merits of re-signing or not re-signing Wagner. This has everything to do with respecting the next general manager, whoever he is.

A decision this big should be his decision, not theirs. The commitment of the franchise's last big chunk of dollars for 2006 should be his decision, not theirs.

And they should have enough humility at this point to recognize that fact."

Beerleaguer take
Wagner is seeking upwards of $27 million over the next three years, a chunk of money that will be wasted if they can’t afford better starters to help bridge the gap to the ninth inning. Without better arms, the Phillies will once again have the best closer in the National League sitting home watching the NLCS on television.

They've had Wags for a couple seasons now. This plan of collecting No. 3-5 starters in front of him hasn’t worked and needs to be scrapped.

Signing Wagner this quickly certainly seems like just another poorly conceived fix to prove that they're "committed to winning." The only positive is it appears they have some money to spend, but if that's all they have, use it, instead, for starting pitching, then deal with the closer situation. Realize that $8-10 million is more money than some teams pay their highest-paid player.

First and foremost, they need a new GM, and he needs to be brilliant. That's No. 1. Innovative thinking is what the Phillies need, not this, and it needs to come from an experienced replacement.

Come on, gang. Get with it.

General manager's main objective still pitching

Long after the Phillies select a new general manager, Ed Wade’s John Hancock will remain etched in stone.

Thanks to Wade, the Phillies have $77.75 million locked in with 11 players next season, a figure many of us have committed to memory. Several of those players, namely the older veterans, have no-trade clauses, and the highest-paid pitcher, Randy Wolf, could miss the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The new GM inherits a pretty good Phillies team on the verge of being a great one, but also takes over tough issues regarding Jim Thome and Billy Wagner, along with an unpopular manager entering the second year of his contract.

But the most pressing issue is the same as it was a day ago: they need better starting pitching. It’s the easiest fix to get them closer to the postseason. That’s the primary goal, and it will take serious baseball smarts to make a maneuver to get some.

Drastic change, organization-wide, could be years away, but know this: the Phillies played good baseball down the stretch and outperformed expectations under first-year manager Charlie Manuel. They got younger and more dynamic at second base and first base, and got some unexpected production from replacement-level pitchers in the starting rotation.

Wade assembled a squad that was good, but not good enough. Better pitching to consistently guide them through seven innings or more - arms to keep the bullpen fresh - was the biggest deficiency this season. Address that area, and they’ll be division favorites, regardless of manager.

Is it necessary to change managers?
I don’t fully understand why beginning the season with Manuel is out of the question. Ideally, you want to start hot, and the team played confident, clutch baseball down the stretch. A new manager means yet another spring adjustment period. I don't want another April like the last one. The team that ended 2005 is one that I trust, at least on offense. I liked the way they played in September, and enjoyed watching players like Utley, Howard and Rollins carry the team on their young backs. They’ll all be back, and so should Manuel – provided he takes a winter course in tactical managing.

Who shouldn’t return?
Jim Thome, but it’s clear that a corner outfielder must be shopped to land some additional pitching. I see two gaping holes in the starting rotation next season: one from the absence of Wolf, and the other from the potential non-tender of Vicente Padilla. That leaves Jon Lieber, Cory Lidle, Brett Myers, and a handful of unproven candidates.

The balance between position players and pitchers is too skewed toward the bats, and both Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu have reached an age when their production has probably topped off. Even Abreu, who has been steady throughout his career, will begin to drop next season. That's not unexpected for a player with speed turning 32. His lack of power down the stretch was also a disturbing trend.

I’ve gone back and forth on which corner outfielder would be better to trade, and after his production disappeared after the all-star break, Abreu is probably the best candidate to change settings. He’ll fetch a better price than Burrell and should be easier to move, and if the Phils are going full-scale PR overhaul, why not put another unpopular body on the chopping block?

Still, shop them both. Out with old thinking, and in with the new. No more untouchables. No more "championship caliber."

With Wade gone, Monty must think outside box

A list of potential general manager candidates has been posted on Philly.com, including a surprising number of young poindexters. Unfortunately, Beerleaguer is not listed.

If you're hoping for a youth movement, the chances are slim if team president David Montgomery selects a popular choice. The loudest voice in radio, Howard Eskin, is already calling for Jim Duquette or Montgomery County product Gerry Hunsicker. Along with Yankees GM Brian Cashman, these are the names I hear and read most often.

My gut tells me Montgomery will indeed side with the majority and select the "Jim Thome" of candidates, a veteran with a name, either Duquette, Hunsicker or Cashman. Theo Epstein is also coming up on the end of his contract, though re-negotiations are already in the works.

That's not to say I disagree with those choices, but I'm very apprehensive of settling for "the people's choice." Like Thome, they sound comfortable at first, but could turn into albatrosses in the end.

I said it once and I'll say it again: the Phillies don't think outside the box and too often take cues from their fans. Though today's decision to fire Ed Wade was a long-time coming, rest assured it was fueled by fandom. 

To prep for this decision, Montgomery should cancel his subscription to the paper and turn off his radio. Instead, he should listen to what the top minds in baseball have to say, and they're not in Philadelphia. Call Peter Gammons. Call Billy Beane. Call the Indians. Call the Blue Jays. Call all the teams that aren't National League rivals, and then take John Schuerholz to dinner at a far off location.

Monty's list of candidates must be extensive, wide ranging, and the decision should not be hasty.

Best quote on today's firing
Tom Goyne of Balls Sticks & Stuff: "Firing Wade is a waste of time if you aren't going to replace him with someone better."

ED WADE FIRED, PRESS CONFERENCE AT 4PM ET

The Phillies have fired Ed Wade after eight years as general manager. A press conference is set for 4 p.m. this afternoon.

Today's news represents the most significant Phillies shake-up in years, as the team has decided to take the organization in a drastically new direction. Fans starving for a change can look forward to a major overhaul from top to bottom.

Under Wade, the Phils had the longest playoff drought under the same GM in baseball, and a farm system that currently ranks last according to Baseball America. In addition, attendance and revenue have fallen off significantly in only the second season at Citizen's Bank Park.

Beerleaguer take
Justified, overdue and smart, the Phillies have taken the first step in mending a broken relationship with fans by finding a new captain for this ship. Though the team made progress under Wade, including an 88-74 record this season - the best record since 1993 - his record is shadowed by no playoff appearances in eight seasons at the helm.

In terms of placating fans, the move couldn't be better PR, as season ticket holders and casual fans alike have been grumbling for his head for years. 

In terms of baseball, Wade will be remembered by some as an overmatched GM who squandered resources and alienated fans. To others, he'll be the man responsible for making them competitive, and for building a nucleus of home-grown talent.

To me, he just wasn't good enough, and the decision to replace him should have come sooner. I'll remember Wade for his over-reaching, overly-loyal contracts that made the team too inflexible, and for being too passive with offseason free agency and at the deadline.

Today's announcement means the job is only half over for team president David Montgomery, charged with finding the right person capable of making Philadelphia an elite baseball town. Meanwhile, Phillies nation will wait to see who stays and who goes.

Just as the next GM must be aggressive, Montgomery must be uncompromising in his pursuit of Wade's replacement. The fans are starved and will settle for nothing less than the best. A replacement within the organization means drawing from a losing organization, and that will not fly.

Preferably, the next GM will have a proven history of running a successful franchise, past or present. A first-time GM, should Montgomery go that direction, should be well-versed in the new science of baseball management.

But no matter which school they hail from, they must come in with a plan. The replacement will inheret a team on the cusp of being a playoff contender, put together entirely by Wade.

Until then, the announcement comes as a sign that the ownership is open to change and tired of the past. It also means our Phillies could look very different next season.

Another early exit for Atlanta

Crippled by a substandard bullpen, the Braves got bounced in the first round of the playoffs for the fourth-straight season. Where do they go from here, and was their season a success?

If you listen to the conspiracy theorists, the Braves should have finished the tank job in the four-game series against the Phillies back on Sept. 15.

Rumor has it the Braves played soft against the Phils to better their chances of facing the Padres in the Divisional Series. The Braves won the final game for posterity, and as it turned out, one game was all it would have taken to force a one-game playoff between the Phils and Astros.

I don’t buy it. After all, the Braves flattened the Astros in the season series and lost their series with the Padres. Managers like Bobby Cox don’t ask alpha competitors to tank ballgames. They want to prove themselves against the best.

The problem is, the Braves were pretenders all along. They barely scraped by in a season decimated by injury, and didn’t play sharp, meaningful baseball late in the season. The result was another uninspired sleepwalk into October, only this time, they were an easy first-round draw.

The biggest problem in the regular season transferred into their biggest issue in the postseason. Atlanta’s bullpen was substandard since April and it came back to bite them hard in the Wild Card. The Braves charged out to a five-run lead yesterday only to watch the bullpen blow it, resulting in their fourth-straight first round exit.

For all the John Schuerholz worship on in this space, the celebrated GM made some questionable choices this season and should be blamed for the poor bullpen. He signed Danny Kolb to replace John Smoltz as closer, and when that flopped, he traded for Kyle Farnsworth, who flopped yesterday. Farnsworth gave up two homers in relief, including the tying shot to Brad Ausmus.

Fourteen-straight division titles is nothing to scoff at, but it never seems like the Braves have the proper parts to win in October. Plus, moving Smoltz back to starter may have sacrificed too much.

Still, the Braves should be back next season. They have one of the best farm systems in baseball, and a slew of emerging talent lead by outfielder Jeff Francouer. They’ll be dealing with only two free agents, a big one in shortstop Rafael Furcal and a minor one in Farnsworth. They also have an option on starting pitcher John Thomson.

Beerleaguer take
It’s funny how the Phillies and Braves find themselves in the same boat. The Phillies had a good season, but once again fell short of the playoffs. The Braves made the playoffs, but lost in the first round again. Both teams have a veteran core that tends to fade away in big games.

Somehow, this gets my wheels turning about closer Billy Wagner and the idea of bringing him back next season. I’ve been opposed to the idea since the trade deadline, but watching playoff baseball always casts decisions like these in a different light.

Wagner finished as the premier closer in the National League and is someone you definitely want for the postseason. It’s likely the Phillies will be knocking on the door yet again in 2006 with a good chance to break in. There’s no way the Braves will land anything better than Wagner unless the Phils let him walk.

Ed Wade said resigning Wagner is his number one priority, even though his asking price is enormous. After watching the Braves series unfold, look for Wade to the raise the counter-offer.

Wagner's yapping about playing for a competitor and in front of positive fans is a recognizable ruse. Money talks, and he'll bite at the best offer.

Saturday notes: Fight on, State

Coming Monday: Part two of my look at Charlie Manuel, focusing on the tactical lessons learned in his inaugural Phillies season. Plus, my thoughts on the MLB playoffs. Go White Sox! How bout that!

Tonight, I'll be in Happy Valley for a prime time battle between my 16th-ranked Nittany Lions (5-0) and the 6th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1). Tune in to hear 100,000 strong boo a giant nut. It’s going to be pandemonium.

AP Primer: After several losing seasons and relentless criticism, legendary coach Joe Paterno has Penn State one win away from thrusting itself back onto the national spotlight.

The 16th-ranked Nittany Lions are out to prove they're again worthy of being considered among the nation's elite programs when they host Big Ten rival Ohio State at Beaver Stadium on Saturday.

Coming off four losing seasons in the last five years, Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) jumped into the AP top-25 with an impressive 44-14 win over then-No. 18 Minnesota at State College, Pa., on Saturday.

Penn State is back into the rankings for the first time since the final media poll of the 2002 season. With seven straight wins dating to last year, the Nittany Lions have the third-longest winning streak in the nation, behind top-ranked USC (26) and No. 2 Texas (11).

With a win over sixth-ranked Ohio State (3-1, 1-0), the Nittany Lions could emerge as the surprise favorite for the Big Ten title and the conference's BCS bid.

All bad news in 'Baseball America' report

Gavin Floyd, left, and Cole Hamels have something in common with the rest of the pitchers in the Phillies’ minor league system.

Baseball America recently published its list of the top 20 prospects, and the news wasn't promising.

The most glaring part of the report is the Phils didn’t have a single pitcher crack the top 20 in any league, including Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels, once fixtures atop this list.

Is it any surprise? Floyd had a disasterous 2005 campaign, and Hamels, once again, couldn't stay healthy for an entire season.

Floyd, in particular, is back to square one after falling flat in both Philadelphia and triple-A Scranton. The 22-year-old represents four years of wasted development and untouchable trade status. He appears far from major-league ready, gaining a wide, cross-organization reputation as a pitcher who wilts under pressure. As for Hamels, his health issues date back to his sophomore year in high school.

Young pitching is a major concern and should be addressed this offseason. Fixing the minor leagues, on a broader scale, is an even bigger undertaking, and the result of years of neglect, flawed strategy in terms of the draft, and poor leadership. It can't be fixed overnight.

Minor upsides
If there is a silver lining, you wouldn’t know it from reading Baseball America. In terms of supplying the big club with viable backups, the team can still plug some bodies into gaps in case of injury.

Prospect ratings can be a little misleading anyway. Baseball America doesn’t like players who’ve stuck around the minors a while. The Phils had a bunch of veterans in Scranton and Reading this season who could still produce in the bigs.

Shane Victorino, somewhat of a prospect even though he spent time with the Pads and Phils, doesn’t show up on the list, even though it appears the International League MVP will compete for an outfield job this spring. The coaches love him, and he's still only 24.

Carlos Ruiz could also challenge for a backup catcher spot. He didn’t get a mention, either. Good-hitting infielder Danny Sandoval could also contribute, depending on whether the Phils keep him around, and in terms of pitching, Paul Owen’s winner Robinson Tejeda and Eude Brito were also eligible for this list, but were not included.

The highest-rated minor leaguer was, in fact, Ryan Howard, rated fourth in the International League, even though he graduated to the bigs months ago.

Eastern League MVP Chris Roberson didn’t even crack the top 20 of the Eastern League. He broke the Reading franchise record for hits in a season, yet Michael Bourn, who had a so-so year, ranked 18th in the EL. Bourn is four years Roberson’s junior.

The reason why I say Baseball America is misleading can be demonstrated in centerfield, where I’d put Victorino first, followed by Roberson, and then Bourn in terms of prospects. Baseball America would rank them the opposite way.

Any hope for Floyd and Hamels?
Call me crazy, but I’m still holding on to hope for Hamels. Imagine if Hamels shows up this spring completely healthy. He would automatically have the inside track at making the starting rotation as the lone left-hander.

I'll keep dreaming.

Cholly: Taking the good with the bad (Part 1)

The Phillies’ coaching staff will return next season, General Manager Ed Wade announced Monday. It also signifies the return of manager Charlie Manuel, who is under contract through next season.

Before I explain why I’m giving Charlie Manuel my endorsement, let me preface this piece by saying that Cholly’s bad tactical managing was the biggest cloud hanging over the team this season.

Weird, isn’t it, to take the good with the bad and not paint an issue with a broad stroke?

Why Cholly deserves credit
The good is obvious.

Under Manuel, the team improved over 2004 and had their best record since 1993, finishing 88-74, a higher mark than most people anticipated. They played confident, clutch and relaxed baseball at the end. In doing so, they overcame injuries to their highest-paid player and highest-paid starting pitcher.

Simply put, Manuel is a nice fit for these players, the previous manager was not. He milked solid production from veterans and got more from unheralded rookies and journeyman nobodies than anyone could have expected. Under Manuel, there was no unexpected collapse, unless you count Jim Thome, who was injured.

Manuel’s least recognized achievement is that he kept the focus on the field. Off-the-field situations and clubhouse spats never crossed his lips. The focus stayed on the diamond, and Manuel quietly took every bullet shot his way, handling a lose-lose situation with humility. Manuel also symbolized a long-overdue break from the 1980 Phillies, something players and younger fans like myself had been barking for.

If I’m Ed Wade, I’m not worried when I hear season ticket holders grumble because Manuel is coming back. When the smoke clears in a couple months, fans will look up and see Chase Utley’s face on the home page of ESPN.com and the title will say "Phillies poised for a playoff push."

If the Phils add a marquee pitcher, they'll be the early favorites to win the NL East. The part I’m looking forward to most is there should be no spring adjustment period. Did you like the way they played in September? I did. Keeping personnel as-is is the best way to maintain that. I’m expecting a hot start and a good spring.

The toughest challenge will be unloading Jim Thome. It’s going to be difficult. The urgency to dump Thome is two-fold. First, they would shed long-term salary to free up money for a need area like long-term starting pitching. Second, remember the weird uncertainty surrounding the club last season because Placido Polanco was hanging around? Keeping Thome would be even worse. Unloading him means they have a stable nucleus on offense, one year older, and wiser ...

... Manuel needs to be wiser, too. More on that tomorrow:

Here’s a bulleted list of things Cholly got right:

• Playing Placido Polanco enough to make him attractive to other teams. In 43 games, he batted .316 and hit better against left-handers than Chase Utley. (More on the negative side of this tomorrow.)
• Easing Ryan Howard into the big leagues by shielding him from too many mismatches against left-handed pitching. Howard never slumped this season, an incredible feat for a power-hitting rookie with his strikeout rate. Manuel used him exactly the right way.
• The center field platoon of Kenny Lofton and Jason Michaels resulted in some of the best offensive production in baseball from that position. Manuel recognized that Lofton and Michaels were better strictly part-time, and he was 100 percent correct.
• Not giving up on Vicente Padilla mid-season, and not giving in to calls for Ryan Madson in the starting rotation. Padilla became the club's best pitcher in July, along with rookie Robinson Tejeda.
• Keeping focus on the field, and not on personal issues or clubhouse problems.
• Manuel’s mid-season move to shift Chase Utley into the No. 3 hole. And in the end, J-Roll batting leadoff wasn’t too shabby, either. For all the nonsense debate that went on this season about the lineup (including on this space), the reason the offense slumped mid-season was because the entire team wasn't generating extra base hits, not because J-Roll was the leadoff hitter.
• After taking Tim Worrell and Terry Adams out to pasture, Manuel established solid bullpen roles to allow pitchers to get comfortable in their spots. Pitchers like Aaron Fultz and Geoff Geary thrived knowing when they were going to be used. (More on the negative side of this tomorrow.)
• Under Manuel, the team didn’t fold in a tough September against Wild Card contenders.
• The biggest positive: results. 88-74 record is an improvement over last season and represents the team's best mark since 1993.

NL East Review: Braves do it again

Time to toot my own horn.

I did pretty well picking the NL East this season. I’m not proud of picking the Mets over the Phillies as Wild Card contenders, but I’m very proud of going against the grain and picking the Marlins fourth.

Here’s how they finished:
1. Braves (90-72, .556)
2. Phillies (88-74, .543)
3. Mets (83-79, .512)
3. Marlins (83-79, .512)
5. Nationals (81-81, .500)

Beer Leaguer predictions
1. Braves
2. Mets (WC)
3. Phillies
4. Marlins
5. Nationals

After the Fish signed Carlos Delgado, they were the chic pick to win the pennant. Very few pundits were able to see what I saw – a thin back-end rotation and bullpen. I didn’t like the dexterity of so-called "ace" pitchers Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett, either, and it came as no surprise that by September, they were fried.

No one, however, could have predicted Florida's clubhouse collapse and Jack McKeon fallout. I was also dead wrong with my prediction of Dontrelle Willis. I thought hitters had figured out the unorthodox southpaw. Apparently not. I'd vote D-Train for NL Cy Young actually. The Marlins also lucked out with grizzled closer Todd Jones after the Guillermo Mota experiment failed, as predicted.

The Mets didn’t get the breakout season from Kaz Matsui I wrote about, but Cliff Floyd proved he still had a little gas left in his tank. Somehow, they made it through OK with that motley crew in the bullpen. Pedro was obviously the man, but they got good ending ERAs from Tom Glavine, Jae Seo, Kris Benson and even Victor Zambrano. Who knew? David Wright had a breakout season, but a lot of people thought that. I didn’t buy the Carlos Beltran hype as much as most people, so his belly-up NY debut wasn't a huge surprise.

Here’s an interesting line:

Beltran: .266 BA, 16 HR, 17 SB, .744 OPS
Utley: .291 BA, 28 HR, 16 SB, .915 OPS

As for the Braves, only a fool would pick against them. This was yet another pennant decided in mid-season, this time by Andruw Jones and the rookies who turned it on when the rotation got dinged.

My pick wasn’t scientific, going on history alone, and you know what? I’ll probably pick the Braves again next season.

Washington's hot start - moving to a town with actual fans - wasn't a surprise, but neither was their second-half collapse. The Nationals had a weak offense that couldn't score runs playing in a pitcher’s park. At one point, I looked at their lineup and saw Carlos Baerga batting cleanup, and said "They’re finished," and soon after, they were.

Each team finished .500 or better. No surprise to anyone, really. They scratched and clawed as predicted, each team staying in contention through September. Even the prediction that the Wild Card winner would have fewer than 90 wins game true. Houston had 89.

Here's what I said in April: "Deepest division in the National League, yet it’s the easiest pick for division winner. History, talent and best GM in baseball on Braves side as they look to break through to the NLCS. Mets are uncommon choice for postseason, but free agent gems Martinez and Beltran, along with a handful of players destined to improve, are too good to ignore. Phillies enter 2005 as a darkhorse instead of favorite. That’s a better place for them, and a good climate for new manager Charlie Manuel to ease back into baseball. Marlins have a text-book offense, but back of rotation and bullpen could be a disaster. Expos improve as Nationals, but merely competitive cellar-dwellers in tough division."

NL Award Predictions
I’m equally proud of picking Andruw Jones as my preseason pick for NL MVP. He changed his batting stance in spring training to add more pop, plus, he was reaching an age when he was likely to peak. I didn’t see anyone else pick Andruw. Albert Pujols probably deserves the MVP, but Andruw will get a fair number of votes.

John Smoltz won’t win the Cy Young, but I’m still happy with making this "statement" pick. As for Andy Marte, my pick for National League Rookie of the Year, I don’t believe he stuck around the majors for more than a few weeks this season .

What I really meant to say was "Ryan Howard."

Playoff dream must wait for 2006

The Phillies took care of business in the regular season finale, beating the Nationals in a convincing 9-3 rout. However, their season officially ended moments later as the Astros held on to beat the Cubs 6-4 to clinch the NL Wildcard.

With nothing to play for but pride, the Cubs had their chances to score, but with two outs and two men on in the ninth, Jose Macias squashed the Phils’ hopes by lining out to second to end the ballgame.

For the Phils, they can hang their heads high after a fine season. They finished 88-74, their best record since 1993, playing some of their best baseball when it mattered most.

The Phils will carry many more positives than negatives forward into next season, including a 36-game hitting streak from Jimmy Rollins, three returning players with over 100 RBIs in Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu and Chase Utley, and a possible rookie of the year in Ryan Howard.

As for the pitching staff, they’ll get another year from their two best, Jon Lieber and Brett Myers, and will look to retain all-star closer Billy Wagner.

Beer Leaguer take:
The result can be mapped back on several roads, but the biggest leads to a season sweep at the hands of Houston. The Phils finished 0-6 against the Wild Card winners, including a devastating sweep at home at the beginning of September. The season will also be remembered for a number of games when Manuel made questionable choices that may have cost them some games, some bullpen meltdowns in the early going, and times when the Phillies offense couldn't produce.

When it’s all said and done however, the Phillies are the best team in the National League that won't be playing baseball in October. They have winning records against all the division winners, and I honestly believe they can hang with any of them, even the Astros.

If only, right? 

If only we could see the team we saw this month play in the postseason. If only fans didn't have to wait 12 long seasons to see it.

During the stretch, the Phils demonstrated uncanny perseverance, making for the most enjoyable September in years. Unfortunately, close only counts in horseshoes, and the ride ended this afternoon.

So my thoughts immediately turn to next season, where things are looking promising - very promising - regardless of the personnel choices made this offseason. Go out and get some pitching and try to get younger at catcher and third. Do those things and the Phils should be in great shape. Thanks to an emerging generation and a solid veteran core, this is a team I still trust.

Site note
Even though the Phils are finished, Beer Leaguer is just getting started. I have a boatload of projects in the pipeline to take you through to next season, including a season recap beginning next week and some interspersed thoughts on baseball and the Philadelphia sports scene. Also, stay tuned for details on my upcoming print annual.

No. 162

A recent conversation on talk radio got me thinking how much better baseball was as a kid.

The topic focused on whether morning show personality Rhea Hughes should renew her season tickets next season. Her answer depended on whether Ed Wade returned as general manager.

She’s not alone in that sentiment, but it’s not something a kid would ever consider.

When I was a kid, I came up with a plan to live inside a janitor’s closet in Veterans Stadium so I could go to games whenever I wanted. Of course, the adult in me now says “You would be eaten to death by rats if you did that.”

It's just another example why adults never get it. I used to get it, and at some point, I lost it.

Earlier in the year, I e-mailed a group of bloggers about getting together for a game and suggested taking in a Reading Phillies game next April. The kids would still be at school and they couldn’t interfere with the purity of the sport, I said.

“Kids,” I said “ruin baseball.”

It's the opposite, though, isn't it? It's us loud-mouthed adults who don't get it.

By saying “kids ruin baseball,” I was missing the point. Baseball is better as fantasy, and it always has been. You don’t need to be 10-years-old to view it that way, and I’m constantly trying to figure out ways to rekindle that naiveté – to view it, once again, as escapism. 

Baseball is also better when you believe in it, when you buy into the illusion that the Phillies are playing for your honor. After writing Beer Leaguer for over a year now - purely as a hobby and exercise in writing - I still get the most enjoyment out of writing players as characters in an epic saga.

As the calendar rolls over to October, it’s fitting the season I dubbed “the year of the veteran players” comes down to the final game, with nine men fighting to keep their playoff dreams alive.

Since April, chapters have been ripped up and replaced. Old favorites were replaced by new ones, and  new protagonists were created to carry this story forward into a sequel.

Today, the 162nd game of the year, represents baseball at its purest form – nine men in white against nine men in black, pushing toward the last page. Only after the final page is turned will there be a question whether the author made the right choices. For now, the author is invisible and only champions exist. 

Phils 4, Nats 3: A developing situation

Led by first baseman Ryan Howard and pitcher Cory Lidle, the Phillies held on to beat Washington 4-3 Friday night. Meanwhile in Houston, closer Brad Lidge blew a save for Andy Pettitte in the ninth inning as the Astros fell to the Cubs 4-3.

Scoreboard: With the win, the Phillies pulled to one game back of Houston in the National League Wild Card race.

What an incredible turn of events! On Thursday morning, the Phils looked as good as dead with Houston grasping to a commanding lead in the Wild Card race. Since then, the defending Wild Card winners dropped two straight games, this one at home to the lame-duck Cubbies with Pettitte on the hill.

Meanwhile, the never-say-die Phils eeked out another ninth-inning nail-biter, with closer Billy Wagner barely crossing the finish line with the tying run on third base.

The Phils have battled through extreme pressure this month. I don't know how they're doing it. My stomach can barely survive another second of this drama.

You want pressure? How about Cory Lidle? He was outstanding, going 6 2-3 and allowing only one earned run.

You want confidence? How about rookie Ryan Howard getting the Phils on the board in the second inning with a deep jack to right? That's his 21st of the season, and it always seems like his shots either get them started or drive the nail in the coffin of the opposition.

You want endurance? How about the September Jimmy Rollins and Kenny Lofton have had? J-Roll extended his hitting streak to 34 games, while Lofton went 2-5 with an RBI. Not to be outdone by his buddy, K-Lo has an OPS of 1.023 in September, while J-Roll has an OPS of 1.103. They're undoubtedly the best leadoff men in the game right now.

If I’ve learned anything about baseball this year, it's that the season is a long marathon to October. Anything can happen, and just when I thought I had everything figured out, the tables are turned once again.

Myers vs. Patterson ...

Williams vs. Clemens ...

Let's go Phillies...

Let's go Cubs...

Beat that son-of-a-bitch.