So you're telling me there's a chance ...

What were the odds of David Bell hitting a game-winning two home run Friday night against the Reds? Very slim, and so are the Phils chances to make the postseason.

From David Cohen of The Good Phight, here are the scenarios:

If the Astros win 3 or more of their remaining 5 games: Phils cannot make the playoffs.
If the Phils win 0 or 1 of their remaining 4 games: Phils cannot make the playoffs.
If the Phils go 2-2: They force a one-game playoff with the Astros only if the Astros lose all 5 remaining games.
If the Phils go 3-1: They make the playoffs outright only if the Astros go winless in the remaining five; they force a one-game playoff if the Astros go 1-4.
If the Phils sweep their remaining games and go 4-0: They make the playoffs if the Astros go 0-5 or 1-4; they force a one-game playoff if the Astros go 2-3.

Baseball Prospectus puts the Phils odds at making the playoffs at 5.7 percent.

Sad but true
For all this talk about how much heart the team had in September, they still just went 13-12, as gr pointed out in the comments section of Shallow Center. Hpfh.

Thanks ...
to Sports Illustrated for putting the Phillies on their cover last week. And McNabb, who could be headed for surgery. Thanks for hexing our teams and players, SI.

Comments

[gr]

maybe its not the curse of philly beingon the ocver, but the curse of yao!

thanks for the nod. doesn't seem like 13-12, does it? they took 5 of 7 from the braves, anyway.

[Tom G]

13-12 is a real shocker. I'd have guessed 16-9 or 17-8.

[Mike Cunningham]

It is kind of shocking, but don't forget they lost 5 straight in the first seven days of the month. Forget what happened against the Mets Monday and Tuesday night, it was those 5 games that sealed the Pennant chase.

On another note... watching Bobby Abreu hobble around all month, why wouldn't Elmer BeFuddled give Shane Victorino some starts in Center moving Michaels to Right on non-Lofton nights, just to give Bobby a night or two off. Same for Chase who could have used a night off earlier this month.

Both of those guys needed breathers this month and Manuel failed to recognize it.