Flawless win outdone by football Sunday

The Phillies wait until the first Sunday of the NFL season to notch their most well-rounded victory of 2005, blasting Florida 11-1 to win the series in textbook fashion. Or were you watching football?

While the eyes of the sports world focused on an oblong pigskin in cities across the country, the Phils performed they way they were designed to perform, getting doubles and triples from the top, while the thumpers in the middle drove them home.

Meanwhile, the guy that was supposed to carry the load, Jon Lieber, had one of his best starts as a Phillie, allowing four hits and one run over seven solid innings.

His mates gave him plenty of run support this time, sticking runners on the bases all afternoon. Before it was over, the Phils drew eight walks and 14 hits, five of them for extra-bases. Like cornbread - ain’t nothing wrong with that.

With the win, the team avoided that old baseball adage that spans generations: "Good teams don’t lose in their home park to Ismael Valdez in September." Casey Stengel said that.

Pat Burrell made sure of it, blasting a tape-measure three-run shot to left off Valdez in the third inning, giving the Phils a 6-1 edge.

Before it was over, even  L’il Endy Chavez got an RBI, though it came on a fielder’s choice. And Charlie Manuel also thought to coast was clear enough to bring in Rheal Cormier for some charity work in ninth. I started to sweat, but Cormier managed not to squander the 11-1 lead.

The Phils could have used a lot more of this against the Astros last week, racking up 29 total runs this series.

Specifically, Burrell is seeing the ball better than ever, reminding me of the Bat that won player of the week honors twice in April and May. I’d also say Jimmy Rollins is showing signs of “getting it,” demonstrating a little more patience at the dish. And just when some phans were ready to throw in the towel on Kenny Lofton, he had two nice games this series, including four RBIs. The center field platoon of Kenny Lofton and Jason Michaels may very well be Manuel's crowning achievement.

Andruw Jones and Win Shares
The Phils get set to face Andruw Jones and the Braves tomorrow. Jones broke the Braves’ record for home runs Sunday, overtaking the franchise record of 47 shared by Hall of Famers Hank Aaron (1971) and Eddie Mathews (1953). He belted two jacks to improve to a league-best 49 on the season.

Despite his outstanding totals, Jones is just the 30th-best player in baseball according Hardball Times Win Shares. Here’s how THT columnist Dave Studeman defended the number:

"We've gotten a lot of Win Shares questions lately. In particular, folks want to know why Andruw Jones only has 22 Win Shares, third on the team behind Marcus Giles (24) and Rafael Furcal (23). The answer is relatively easy: Andruw has not batted well with runners on base.

"Overall, Jones is batting .270, but he's batting only .213 with runners in scoring position (RISP). What's more, only 38% of his home runs have come with runners on base, even though 51% of his at-bats have been with runners on. So even though he may wind up with 50 home runs and well over 300 total bases, he hasn't had the impact many players with his stats have."

Jones is actually behind three Phillies: Abreu (10), Burrell (26) and Utley (29).

Horse-patootie! I awarded Jones my first-half NL East MVP in my midseason report card, and the argument has only gotten stronger. If you go by Win Shares, the best contributor in the NL East is Abreu. Bah!

As for the league MVP, I’ll go with the Win Shares and take Albert Pujols, with close consideration also going to Beerleaguer favorite Jim Edmonds. He plays center field with the grace of a G.I Joe ballerina (pictured right).

I'd trade any player in town for Edmonds, without question, and without concern for age.

Comments

[enrico]

Maybe the Phillies play better when no one is paying attention? Or maybe they just play better when it is too late.

Won't Edmonds be 36 next season? Seems a little old to me to trade *anyone* for him.

[pawnking]

Question for the day:

What would this Phillies team have looked like if - 1) Jim Thome had been healthy this year, and 2) We had this guy instead of this guy at third base?

[J. Weitzel]

Two months ago, I would have agreed that a healthy Thome would be better than Howard, but since then Howard is making a drastic charge up VORP, so I'm not sure a drop off even exists. On one hand, you have a 35-year-old on a drastic downslop, and in the other, a 26-year-old close to prime.

Think about some of the pitchers he's tagged lately: Pedro, Oswalt, Burnett, Cordero. Against left-handers like Pettitte, sure, I'd take the experience of Thome. Then again, Thome looked pretty "inexperienced" this season.

Next year, Howard must stay. They'd be completely nuts to get rid of a ROTY candidate and keep a banged up body like Thome at the price of $13 million.

From what I hear, the Phils brass - above Wade - has no desire to get rid of Howard. That was two months ago, BEFORE he established himself as a bona fide ML slugger.

[pawnking]

Howard is and will continue to be a mojor league hitter, and a good one. But he's not going to ever be as good as Thome. Here is Howard's line this year. His EQA is .290, which is really good. When Thome was his age, however, he was putting up a .350 EQA. Last year, Thome was putting up a nifty .312 EQA.

Arguably, Thome is on the downslope of his carreer, however since he was 21, he every season he had outhit what Howard has done this year, exeept this injury-filled one. If Thome can come back from his injury, he will likely outplay Howard again, and again the following year, and again the year after that.

Of course, there is certainly a chance that he will not come back, so I am all for keeping Howard. He's certainly inexpensive insurance at this point. But Howard barely outperformed Julio Franco this year. I'm not looking at a future all-star when I see Howard. I'm looking at a strong hitting first baseman with limited trade value. Useful, but hardly irreplaceable.

But what do I know, anyway? I picked the Phils to win 95 games this year :-(

[Tom Goodman]

pawnking: To predict Howard will never be as productive as Thome doesn't require statistical training or fluency; it requires a crystal ball, and I doubt you have one that good or reliable. I'd wait for at least one complete season before making the above claims, and, then, if you are correct, I will be glad to applaud you. You might want to keep in mind that Howard's initial callup, albeit brief, skewed the numbers for this year insofar as he was inappropriately used at times and was clearly under the gun to perform in Thome's absence. Even since July 1, he has steadily found his feet as he has become more secure in at his position, on the field and in the dugout.

[pawnking]

Tom, All I can say is that to my knowledge, never has a player of Howard's age become as productive as Thome has been. Howard's minor league carreer, though very good, had "above average major leaguer" written all over it, not "Major League Superstar" that Thome had. I think, THINK, that Thome will come back and be a productive hitter. Thome even at the decline of his carreer will most likely be a much more productive hitter than Howard will ever be. If Thome doesn't come back, so be it. Howard is very inexpensive, really only costing a roster spot, and provides some pop off the bench at worst. At best, he can play every day if Thome is unable to continue, as we have seen this year.

Howard has had a good month so far this September, but Thome has had entire years much better than Howard's few ABs in September, including when he was Howard's age, where he had an OPS of 1.026 for the ENTIRE YEAR!!!

If your point was that Howard might be more productive from here on out than Thome from here on out, you may be right, and certainly have a good arguement. But to say that Howard will ever be the hitter that Thome has been over his carreer is total nonsense. 25 year olds just don't suddenly become that much more productive.

Howard might someday make an All Star team. Thome will (if he returns healthy for the next few years) be mentioned as a HOF candidate. I cannot see Howard getting any serious consideration on that score.

[Tom Goodman]

I don't see anything in my comment suggesting the "nonsense" that Howard will "ever be the hitter Thome has been over his career." I said it is too early to tell what kind of hitter he will be. Try and stick to what I wrote.