Phillies need 2B better with XBHs

The Phillies’ woes can be traced to a lack of extra-base hits, including a league-worst 200 doubles.

For all intents and purposes, Noah Lowry tossed a complete-game shutout last night, holding the Phils to five hits and only one extra-base hit, leading the Giants to a disgusting 5-0 victory.

Will the loss, the offense hit rock bottom. It’s time to get to the root problem in order to build this team back up for the stretch run.

The strikeouts are becoming an issue, with the heart of the order, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell and Chase Utley, combining for four of them last night. Abreu and Burrell are among the league leaders in that category, and Utley isn’t far behind with fewer at bats. However, as a team they’re seventh in the National League in whiffs. It’s a significant issue of late, but not the core problem some critics think it is.

Certainly, David Bell isn’t helping the cause, grounding into his 21st double play of the season last night, second most in baseball. I watched that in disgust as the funeral Bell tolled once again with men on, striking last night at midnight.

I’ve been more patient with Jimmy Rollins than most fans, simply because he can be a disruptive presence on the base paths others can’t.

If only he got on base.

With a dismal OBP of .304, after another hitless, walkless night at the plate, it’s time to make a change, using Jason Michaels in the top spot against left-handers (awesome .468 OBP against LHP). That would be a nice start for Charlie Manuel.

Setting the table is critical, but I wouldn’t say that’s the biggest problem, either. Neither is hitting with runners in scoring position, which has been a serious concern in the past. The team is batting .271, fifth in the NL, with 424 RBIs, which is third best. Pretty good.

Over the past two weeks, the problem has become clear. They don’t deliver extra base hits. They’re dead last in baseball with only 340 of them. That’s 118 XBHs less than the best team, Texas. Ouch!

Getting on base isn’t a problem for the Phils, but who cares about league-leading .342 OBP if they never make it past second, pecking away with walks and singles? That's a game too often being played.

As a team, they rank near the bottom in homers (116 is sixth-worst in the NL), but the most significant drought is a dearth of doubles. For the season, they have a ridiculously low 200, 63 less than the league-leading Reds.

As the stats reveal, when you hit lots of doubles, you score lots of runs. In the NL, Cincinnati has the most doubles (263) and also the most runs (646). Over in the American League, Boston has the most doubles (261) and also the most runs (696).

Here’s a team that’s played most of their games in the "offense-friendly" Citizen’s Bank Park, yet they have a league worst 340 XBHs. Part of the problem is that Citizen’s Bank Park isn’t necessarily an easy place to get a two-bagger. In fact, the tight angles make it difficult. According to ESPN’s Park Factors, CBP is the seventh-hardest place to double.

Abreu and Utley are tied for the team lead with 26, but that’s well off the pace of the league leader, Derrek Lee, with 39.

The biggest crime is that a player with speed like J-Roll is just sixth on his team with 19 doubles. Perhaps it’s another good argument to get him out of the leadoff spot, because J-Mike, with less than half the at bats, has 12.

Comments

[Mike Cunningham]

Last year the Phillies were 3rd in Total Runs scored in the NL and 7th in Doubles last year.

144 of their doubles were hit in the Cit last year, while 159 of their Doubles were hit away (3rd in the NL). Last year the Phillies were 4th in runs scored at home while 3rd Away.

This is virtually the same team right?

This year the Phillies are 3rd in runs scored at home, while 15th AWAY!!! What changed? What is different from last year to this year? They played statisically the same virtually home and away last year as far as runs scored.

But your doubles scenario is right on target, as the Phillies are 15th in doubles away, while 8th at home.

Why are they scoring runs at home? They are third in HRs at home (76), while they have hit only 40 home runs this away, making them dead last. Last year the Phillies were 4th in Away Home Runs, while 2nd at home.

It seems to me that this significant dropoff of offense Away, should indicate a much worse record away. It does. The Phillies have the 2nd worst record in the NL on the Road. Last year the Phillies had the 7th best NL Record away from the Cit.

I can't explain why there is SUCH a drop off. Perhaps these effects are MORE psychological than anything? Shouldn't this be the time where Charlie Manuel should be asking In N Out burgers to change their signs to Pat's Steaks?

[theragtopguy]

I would say that not having Thome contributes signifigantly. Other than that, GIDP (Bell) is really having a poor year compared to last.

[George S]

The drop off in doubles is almost exclusively due to drop offs at 1B and at SS.
The Thome/Howard combo projects out to about 8 2Bs lower than 2004. This is understandable with Thome ailing and Howard a rookie.

JR, on the other hand, has no eecuse. He projects out to hit 18 fewer doubles than last year. I have no idea what the cause might be, except perhaps the conscious effort to hit ground balls more often. Even if it’s Tony Gwynn, messing with someone’s swing has unforeseen consequences, not least of which is comfort and confidence at the plate.

While Abreu is also down, the OF as a whole is about even, as Burrell is up and Lofton/Michaels offsets Byrd/Ledee from last year.

David Bell, despite a terrible season at the plate overall, is on pace to match his 2Bs from last year (33). Lieberthal is only slightly down in 2Bs.

The home/away discrepancy in overall offensive performance is real enough, but at least in terms of 2Bs, it seems to simply change the distribution rather than the total number. The total number is basically a drop off by Rollins and Thome.

[kuff6]

I am convinced that the Phils would be better off if they instructed Bell to strike out on purpose any time he comes up with multiple runners on base and less than 2 out. I have never seen such an automatic DP (or at least not since the days of Lance Parrish). He just sucks the soul out of the entire offense: they know he's going to hit into the DP, he knows he's going to hit into the DP, we all know he's going to hit into the DP. And sure enough, time and time again, he hits into the DP.