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Tuesday, August 23, 2005


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Last year the Phillies were 3rd in Total Runs scored in the NL and 7th in Doubles last year.

144 of their doubles were hit in the Cit last year, while 159 of their Doubles were hit away (3rd in the NL). Last year the Phillies were 4th in runs scored at home while 3rd Away.

This is virtually the same team right?

This year the Phillies are 3rd in runs scored at home, while 15th AWAY!!! What changed? What is different from last year to this year? They played statisically the same virtually home and away last year as far as runs scored.

But your doubles scenario is right on target, as the Phillies are 15th in doubles away, while 8th at home.

Why are they scoring runs at home? They are third in HRs at home (76), while they have hit only 40 home runs this away, making them dead last. Last year the Phillies were 4th in Away Home Runs, while 2nd at home.

It seems to me that this significant dropoff of offense Away, should indicate a much worse record away. It does. The Phillies have the 2nd worst record in the NL on the Road. Last year the Phillies had the 7th best NL Record away from the Cit.

I can't explain why there is SUCH a drop off. Perhaps these effects are MORE psychological than anything? Shouldn't this be the time where Charlie Manuel should be asking In N Out burgers to change their signs to Pat's Steaks?

I would say that not having Thome contributes signifigantly. Other than that, GIDP (Bell) is really having a poor year compared to last.

The drop off in doubles is almost exclusively due to drop offs at 1B and at SS.
The Thome/Howard combo projects out to about 8 2Bs lower than 2004. This is understandable with Thome ailing and Howard a rookie.

JR, on the other hand, has no eecuse. He projects out to hit 18 fewer doubles than last year. I have no idea what the cause might be, except perhaps the conscious effort to hit ground balls more often. Even if it’s Tony Gwynn, messing with someone’s swing has unforeseen consequences, not least of which is comfort and confidence at the plate.

While Abreu is also down, the OF as a whole is about even, as Burrell is up and Lofton/Michaels offsets Byrd/Ledee from last year.

David Bell, despite a terrible season at the plate overall, is on pace to match his 2Bs from last year (33). Lieberthal is only slightly down in 2Bs.

The home/away discrepancy in overall offensive performance is real enough, but at least in terms of 2Bs, it seems to simply change the distribution rather than the total number. The total number is basically a drop off by Rollins and Thome.

I am convinced that the Phils would be better off if they instructed Bell to strike out on purpose any time he comes up with multiple runners on base and less than 2 out. I have never seen such an automatic DP (or at least not since the days of Lance Parrish). He just sucks the soul out of the entire offense: they know he's going to hit into the DP, he knows he's going to hit into the DP, we all know he's going to hit into the DP. And sure enough, time and time again, he hits into the DP.

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EST. 2005

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