Fielding the Phillies

When it comes to evaluating the Phillies' defense, I trust my eyes.

In the past 24 hours, I’ve heard the Phillies' defense described as “very good” at least twice because of league-best .987 fielding percentage and league-low 66 errors. But are these numbers good indicators of team defense?

Fielding percentage is a muddled indicator because it’s based on assists, putouts and errors. In order to make a play, a player must first be in position to make a play. The pitcher has a hand in everything else, as do teammates, the hitter, the ballpark, etc. As for errors, it’s a judgment call from a schmuck in a booth.

Fielding continues to be the hardest aspect of the game to jam into a bar graph and read in USA Today, so I’ll break Moneyball rule No. 1 and trust my eyes for my official observation of Phillies defense before they begin their critical series in New York. This is numbers-free observation for those put off by my math-heavy Michael Tucker report (1 comment, 2 hours work).

David Bell is a much better third baseman than fans give him credit for and outperforms most of his peers in the National League. He’s agile, strong and accurate when he throws off-balance. He gets over anxious at times, which leads to some fumbles, but it’s a small tradeoff for the everyday leather he provides at the corner.

On the other side, Ryan Howard has actually made some spectacular plays, hasn’t he? You know what else? He’s got a serious wing span. He covers twice the ground J-Roll does just standing there. I see average motion otherwise. Overall, he’s an asset as his position because he can knock down bullets targeted for the wall, and isn’t afraid to hit the dirt.

As for the middle infield, Jimmy Rollins doesn’t commit errors, which is easy to overlook because we’ve come to expect such quality. He often misjudges the quickest path to the ball. I see J-Roll as a good shortstop getting lost in the shuffle more and more each year as younger, better talent starts infiltrating the NL. I hope he realizes his contract was as much a result of a poor farm system as it was his performance.

I hesitate in calling Chase Utley a nice surprise because I’m really not sure. He’s not as swift as Placido Polanco and doesn’t have the same quick punch on the double play. He doesn’t get much zest on his throws, the reason Polanco had always been the preferred second baseman and Utley was never considered an option for third. I think a simple expression for Chase could be “good speed, bad arm.”

Jason Michaels plays a competent centerfield, but the rest of the outfield is awfully weak. Pat Burrell isn’t there for his glove obviously, but Kenny Lofton is, in a way. All the preseason warnings turned out true. He breaks to the ball about a second late, getting by purely on speed. It’s never a nice, easy glide with Kenny. As for Bobby Abreu, he’s having the worst season of his career. Lofton and Abreu play their positions with fear.

As for the pitchers, they’re very poor. Remember Jon Lieber’s brief mental block throwing out runners to first earlier this season? Vicente Padilla is always good for an adventure. They say John Smoltz, Mike Hampton and Tim Hudson are good athletes on the mound. What do they say about Lieber, Lidle and Myers, other than "Have another doughnut."

At catcher, I’ve been so preoccupied thinking about Mike Lieberthal’s handling of the pitching staff that I’ve been missing a serviceable defensive season behind the plate. He ranks in the middle of almost all stats among NL regulars. Todd Pratt doesn’t have an error this season. He’s what I’d call “serviceable,” too. 

What about the managers? It’s hard to say, but has anyone noticed how often the Phils are in the right spots to make plays? Even Tomas Perez coming off the bench at any position seems to be in the perfect spot. That’s no coincidence. It’s a credit to the manager, and specifically, field general Gary Varsho.

Because of Sunday night’s brutal display, the Phils actually dropped to second in the National League with a .986 fielding percentage, putting them in a tie with St. Louis.

Does anyone think the Phils are on the same level as the Cardinals? I didn’t think so.

I mentioned on this space before I’m a big fan of Jim Edmonds and would trade just about anybody for his services.

Edmonds is like the Tom Brady of baseball. He may not be the best fantasy player, but he’s spotless.

Everyone says it’s important to have an ace pitcher. What about an ace defender, someone that won’t let you down in a big situation? Imagine what Edmonds would bring to the Phillies. A pennant, maybe more.

Conclusion: I hadn’t given much thought to team defense before this piece. This isn’t a scientific study, but I hope my thoughts make sense. Feel free to dispute my descriptions with rock-hard numbers.

When it comes to sabermetrics, I'm all "Tuckered" out. Get it? He's a "professional hitter" you know.

The Phils don’t have the best defense in the NL, as some numbers like fielding percentage indicate. They have a very good infield, a weak outfield, weak pitchers and serviceable catchers. They don't have a defensive star that can pick up the slack.

Defense isn't a team strength. I'm talking to you Joe Morgan.

Comments

[Casey]

I remember watching Buddy Bell play third for the Rangers and Astros, and I love watching David Bell work there for the Phils. His best move is going to the line and making a strong offbalance throw to first. Chase sort of reminds me of a David Wright playing second. He pulls off some pretty sick plays every once in a while. Rollins... bleh. His glove and arm seem pretty good, but his head isn't in it all the time. Just like at the plate.

[Jeff Martin]

I think I'm soured on Bell a bit because I was at that game earlier this year when he committed three errors, one of which was incorrectly attributed to Howard by the "schmuck in the booth." But you're right; he's certainly not Scott Rolen in either half of the inning, but he's a good defender in a position that needs it.

[Billy Mac]

I agree that David Bell is underrated defensively by the majority of fans I speak with who would rate him as poor to below average. I also think he is overrated by the stat heads, who will bring out subjective stats like Zone Factor. Bell commits way too many errors (24 last season, 15 this season), and has merely an average arm. He makes up for this with a quick release and good accuracy. Bell is also not good at barehanders. He is a good but not great fielder.

[Tom G]

Jason (or anyone else for that matter), what do you think of fielding win shares?

[J. Weitzel]

Win Shares are a great for comparing players. It's a bit of a different approach than fielding percentage because it assigns more value to positions like shortstop and catcher. Don't get me wrong, F.PCT has merit, too, as do errors. For some reason, I rely on my power of observation more when evaluating defense.

[Deanna]

Hey, Jason, did you go fill out Tangotiger's "do NOT look at the numbers, just tell us what you see" fan scouting report? If not, you should. This is pretty much the exact sort of data he's looking for.

http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/index.html

[Tom G]

I end up taking my eyes and the numbers into consideration...There is a website that you can go to and input your observations on a player and he averages them out. Sort of an interesting excersise.
http://www.tangotiger.net/

[Tom G]

I guess Deanna types (or thinks) just a tad quicker than me.

[enrico]

David Bell: I got it, I got it. Um, No I don't.

That was pathetic.

[Brian Michael]

Bell shoulda let Rollins handle that one. Dont forget Lofton's hands are pretty suspect in the field. He's been bobbling some balls lately and letting a few slip by.

[George S]

I think the Phillies’ defense is a case of the total defense being greater than the sum of it’s parts. In that sense, it truly is a team defense. Unfortunately in my opinion what makes the Phillies team defense so good does not show up in the stats. For example:
Smart positioning. This includes pitchers putting the ball where they are supposed to as well as good scouting. Because of this, the Phillies seldom need to make ‘spectacular’ fielding plays.
Hitting the cutoff man, which Phillies outfielders do extremely well. And the cutoff man is almost always in the proper position.
Throwing to the right base. With runners on 1st and 2nd, Burrell threw to 3B the other night vs Ariz on a long fly ball when he had little chance to get the tagging runner. This allowed the runner at first to go to 2B and took away a GIDP situation. This type of mistake is fortunately infrequent.
Holding trailing runners from taking extra bases. This is directly related to hitting the cutoff man and throwing to the right base.
Almost always getting an out when they should. This includes sacrifice bunts, where the team usually gets an out. They do not try to get the lead runner when there is little chance, leading to a fielder’s choice and nobody out. They seldom screw up the front end of a DP.
Communicating on popups and fly balls. There are few collisions and the person in the best position to throw usually catches it. There are not many “Who’s got it?” bloop hits.
Not throwing the ball around too much. This is a big one with me and is never something that is recorded. This includes catchers trying to pick off baserunners and outfielders throwing to home plate on shallow fly balls when the runner is not going anywhere. Tonight’s game with NY gave a perfect example of a poor percentage throw that shouldn’t have been made.
Utley on 1st and Burrell lines out to Beltran in medium CF. Beltran decides to try to double up Utley by throwing to 1B. The throw is a one-hopper that is at least 10 ft up the RF line and goes past the stretching first baseman. (The comment by the announcer was classic: “You can see Beltran has a strong arm” Huh??) Anyway, should that errant throw go into the dugout or stands, Utley’s now at 2B. The chances of getting him at 1B were not good, even though Utley was a little lackadaisical getting back.
I have seen this ‘vanity’ throw many times and every once in a while it will get by the backup man and end up giving the other team free bases. That happens much more often than does nailing a runner.

All of these things are basic fundamental baseball. Do them competently and your defense will be very good. And you usually won’t win Gold Gloves doing it.

Bell might be the one fielder who seems to be out of position much of the time. He stands too far from the line, sometimes comes in too close. I don’t know if he is being told where to position himself or if he does it on his own.
He also has a lot of trouble coming in on a ball hit in front of him. Of all the Phillies, he has been the greatest beneficiary of offical scorers awarding hits on balls he’s butchered, usually when trying to get the ball from his glove to his throwing hand, or when bare-handing a ball. (Lofton is a close second on generous scoring).

[J. Weitzel]

George:

Tell us again why the smartest mind in Phillies baseball is in Vietnam?

Your points on team defense are brilliant, and I stand corrected.

[Ankit]

Excellent notes George S, as usual. Its always a good day when you post. Far better analysis than any of the paid writers in town here. And I completely agree with your points on Bell.

[Tom G]

Hopefully this thread has not been forgotten...After reading George S, I have a hypothesis: Does anyont think that Bell plays in to far or too far from the line because in his younger days, he used to be able to get away with that, but now that he is older and less mobile, he can't and has yet to adjust?