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Sunday, August 07, 2005

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Comments

i think i'm going to pick up ohka in fantasy leagues for everytime he plays the phils.

I agree that Bell, Lieberthal, pitcher makes for three easy outs, but I really don't think using Perez more at third is the answer...Did you see any of his at-bat today? Carbon copy of the other day: six-year old blindfolded chasing a pinata.

Hey Jason, good luck with that! Our brilliant team leader has no clue. Can you see those guys with their big fat contracts being part timers? Ain't happening dude. But I agree with you 100%!! Forget Perez, he's a bench defense guy at best. He can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag. Any pitcher with good stuff can get him out no problemo. Hard stuff on his hands. Of course, Elmer doesn't see it that way. What a moron he is. At least he is playing Pratt more, that guy has fire in his belly. He's gonna be a good manager when he is done playing in my opinion. Ya know, the bitch is even if we make the wild card (Long shot) we aren't going far, this team doesn't do the little things it takes to win consistently. Plus they just play stupid ball, too many mistakes. Just another year, hell we all should be used to it by now. Like Jack Nicholson in 'A Few Good Men' said - the bosses can't handle the truth!! Naysayers get fired, butt kissers get hired.
Lord, what is Jimmy Leyland doing I wonder. I figure Elmer must have cost us 5 games easy singlehandedly by now!! Probably a conservative estimate at that.

You're right fellas ... Perez is no gem either, and I was a little fired up when I wrote that in the sixth. I guess my point is they can't keep throwing Bell, Lieberthal, pitcher out there two games in a series against RHP.

In terms of Bell, I say an extra day per week with Perez or Martinez or whomever, just to break up the bottom of the order and give Bell a break, is all I would ask. Bell is the lesser of two evils because he still helps them defensively and hits lefties well, but he's batting about .200 against RHP. Perez is at .227 against RHP with no power to speak of, but at the very least, he's fresh. Lieberthal is the one that should be replaced more often. The last two weeks have been terrible.

In general, I see two broken down players that are no longer starters at the major league level. My gut tells me they're both walking wounded.

I saw the Black Hole in June, and I have tracked it ever since. Here is the data after today's game. (apologies for the formatting)
Neither=Neither Bell or Lieberthal start.
Either=One or the other starts.
Split=They both start, but do not bat consecutively in the batting order.
BHole=They both start and bat consecutively in the order.

Here are the results, which includes W-L record and RPG:

Neither (5-0) (6.60 RPG)
Either (19-14) (5.06 RPG)
Split (15-11) (5.27 RPG)
BHole (19-29) (3.75 RPG)

Team (58-54) (4.62 RPG)

I think it's pretty clear. The Phillies are 10 games under .500 when the BH is present. They score 1.5 fewer runs with the BH lineup. You have to wonder about CM, since he must know this.

But here's something I found even more interesting and puzzling. How do Bell and Lieberthal do individually in the above situations? I only used three categories: The BHole lineup and the batting average of the two of them combined; When they are split up, using the BA of the two of them combined; and when one of them plays, using the BA of whichever of them played. Here's what you get:

BHole (combined .197 BA)
Split (combined .262 BA)
Either (combined .302 BA)

Both players play much better when they are separated or when one of them sits!
I can only speculate on the reasons for these results. Bell maybe gets better pitches to hit when someone other than Lieberthal follows him the order. Lieberthal possibly leads off innings more, and bats with RISP less when Bell is in front of him.
Anyone's guess is as good as mine.

So, what to do?

You sit Bell down, and platoon him at 3B with Perez. Bell plays only against LHP. If the above data is correct, that alone will improve Lieberthal's performance.
Many will say that Perez is no answer, and they might be right. But 1) can he do worse than Bell (.201 vs RHP) at bat and in the field? I say no. 2) Why do people assume Perez cannot do the job? Based on PH? Does anyone really think that's a good indicator of a player's ability to play regularly? How many good players would look bad if they faced the other team's closer every time they batted? Has he ever been given a chance to play everyday and been told that he would play everyday? I think the Phillies should find out and not assume anything, especially when what you have now is NOT working.
Perez might fail, but at least we will know.

George S - Way to hustle and give it 110%. Those are some astonishing numbers.

George S: I agree about Tomas and said so this AM. Pinch-hitting is NO basis on which to judge him or anyone else unless they are the exceptional player who can pinch hit regularly and well.

ARGHHHHH!! How much more of the Black Hole can we take..its amazing how much money these 2 guys are getting to basically kill the team.

I am not one to hate the players..i really beleive that lieberthal and bell are working their butts off and lieberthal is on a very cranky knee, i am having trouble sticking with mgmt and for first time ever seriously considering not re-upping my 4 tickets (16 game plan) sec 135 because i cant bear to give my $$ to mongtomery and co..

Good News: The above data seems to indicate that a simple change to the batting order would greatly improve the offense, even keeping both Bell and Lieberthal in the lineup.
Bad News: CM is usually dead set against change.

I agree with you Ken. David Bell and Mike Lieberthal are giving all they got. They are both true professionals in that regard.
If they are killing the team, it's because they are being asked to do what they are no longer capable of doing, and not being used properly. And whose responsibility is that?

Just wait till end of august all of us lucky season tix holders will get the playoff package!!!!

Hey guys we're one of ten teams only 5 out of wild card race!!!!

If all of our players stay healthy and play like they should, we're in it!!!! So pony up a couple thousand and don't worry, if we dont make it this year, we can credit the $$ towards next yrs tickets!!!!!! WOO HOO!!
{sarcasm off}

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