Beerleaguer - Phillies Blog, Baseball News, Trade Rumors & Spirits

No easy answers as deadline draws near

The Phillies’ most tradable commodity, Billy Wagner, has also been their best pitcher lately. Are the Phillies willing to trade him for prospects like Boston's Kelly Shoppach now that they're just 2.5 games out in the wild card hunt?

Before the All-Star break, I believed the Phils closer had been good, not great in earning his fourth career all-star bid. But since that time, Wagner has been lights out, including three near spotless saves this series alone. 

With the exception of one bad appearance-in which he was overworked for 43 pitches against the Dodgers-Wags has been virtually unhittable since July 10, including a key save last night to preserve the 8-7 win against the Rockies.

I’d label Wagner the best closer in the NL right now and he's probably the best chip on the market next to Boston slugger Manny Ramirez. NBC-10 reported this morning the White Sox are making a late push for the closer, but multiple sources have indicated the Phils aren’t selling. They’re sitting just 2.5 back of Houston in the wild card race, with Atlanta starting to pull away in the NL East with a five-game lead over the fast-falling Nationals.

The Phils are competing with about six other legitimate contenders for that final playoff birth and have just as good a chance as any of them in my estimation, with Houston still earning my vote as the front-runner. The number of teams still in the hunt certainly reflects the lack of significant trades that have happened so far.

Yesterday, Eric Byrnes of Colorado was traded for essentially the same type of outfielder in Baltimore’s Larry Bigbie, smacking of a deal just for the sake of making one.

The Padres finally unloaded first baseman Phil Nevin on the Rangers, but had to settle for pitcher Chan-Ho Park in a tradeoff of overpaid players.

And Seattle outfielder Randy Winn was dealt to the Giants for a young catcher and a pitching prospect in a move between teams that are out of the hunt. What I like about this deal is the Mariners received a young catcher, but then again, they got catcher Miguel Olivo in the Freddy Garcia deal to Chicago last season and he turned into a disappointment. Olivo, in turn, was also dealt yesterday to the Padres for a catching and pitching prospect, making that two young catchers Seattle received in one day.

Young catching remains a problem area for the Phils, with the biggest available prize in the Red Sox organization in the shape of Kelly Shoppach. Shoppach is batting .260 with 21 homers and a .525 SLG in Triple-A Pawtucket. From everything I've read, he's an excellent defender and a natural leader, a product of the outstanding Baylor program.

Boston is in desperate need of a closer and their interest in Wagner is no secret. However, the Ramirez situation throws a wrench into that plan. Though Jayson Stark has reported that talks between the Red Sox, Mets and Devil Rays have cooled on a three-way deal that would send Ramirez to New York, Boston would have to send a number of prospects Tampa Bay’s way, which could include Shoppach and third baseman Kevin Youkilis, players rumored to be headed to Philadelphia. The Red Sox would be receiving Aubry Huff in the deal, which would also bring Mets outfielder Mike Cameron to town. Rays closer Danys Baez is also involved, but I can’t remember whether he’d go the Mets or Red Sox.

It’s all so confusing, but that’s been the story of the deadline season – in particular with the Phillies. In fact, the Phils may have received the best available reliever on the market in the form of Ugueth Urbina, only they made the move a month and a half ago. The idea that Danys Baez is getting this much attention is beyond ludicrous.

With speculation surrounding the seriousness of Jim Thome's elbow tendonitus, reports say Ryan Howard isn’t going anywhere. And with the turnaround of pitcher Vicente Padilla, and the three wins in Colorado aided by red-hot Billy Wagner, the Phils could stick with the team they already have.

Beerleaguer take
Can the Phillies wrangle at least one young catcher or third base prospect in exchange for a player like Endy Chavez? If so, make the deal and I’d be mildly satisfied. I’d still make teams beg for the services of the best closer in the National League. I’d ask two prospects and a proven pitcher for Wagner at this point. After last night, there's no doubting his value to a World Series-bound team like the Red Sox. Urbina is also not out of the question and could fetch a hefty price. I also maintain that no starter, aside from Jason Schmidt or A.J. Burnett, would make a significant enough impact for a playoff push.

Remeber, the biggest question remains: Are they contenders or pretenders? All this series has proven to me is they can beat the worst team in baseball.

4:00 deadline update
Nothing of any significance has moved over the wire just yet as the trade deadline passes. However, I want to pass along this bit of information for those that missed it:

SUNDAY - The Washington Nationals optioned outfielder Marlon Byrd to Triple-A New Orleans on Sunday, replacing him on the roster with outfielder Matt Cepicky.

Prospect retrospective: Johnny Estrada

The last in a series of collectible Reading Phillies posters, available Tuesday in the Reading Eagle and written by yours truly. (With a little extra goodness for the blog version).

Johnny Estrada is remembered as the one that slipped away, but when the backup catcher was first traded to Atlanta for established starter Kevin Millwood, many believed the Phils finally robbed their hated foe blind.

Instead, the deal worked out better for Atlanta, as most deals often do: Estrada has become the Braves' starting catcher, while Millwood never panned out the way the Phils had hoped.

Reading, 2000: Estrada was part of the Gary Varsho 2000 team that finished with the best record in Double-A (85-57). It was something of a breakout season for the 23-year-old, a lightly regarded late round pick out of the College of the Sequoias in California. He hit .295 and set a career high in homers with 12 while splitting time behind the plate with converted catcher Andy Dominique.

Estrada's offense had always been something the organization was willing to take or leave, but his ability to handle the pitching staff — in addition to his breakout season with the lumber — established his reputation as the best all-around catcher in the league.

Today: There are plenty of misconceptions surrounding both Estrada and Millwood.

Millwood is better than fans give him credit for. He's among the unluckiest pitchers in baseball, plagued by nagging injuries, bad run support and ill-omened hits. Despite his record of 4-9 this season, he has pitched very well for the Indians (3.39 ERA).

As for Estrada, the opposite is true to some degree. As soon as the Braves acquired him, his numbers made an incredible, magical jump, which is nothing new for mythic Bravos.

Before the trade: 2338 PA, .274 BA, .332 OBP, .332 SLG
After the trade: 958 PA, .319 BA, .383 OBP, .474 SLG
Source: Baseball Prospectus Annual 2005

Since his breakout season in 2004 - paced by a brilliant first half - he's come down to earth big time offensively. He's having an average season for a catcher, batting .261 with only three homers. His job appears secure for the time being, with heavy-hitting 21-year-old Brian McCann seeing limited time with the big club.

As he did in the minors, Estrada makes up for those deficiencies with good defense and the ability to handle a pitching staff. For those reasons, he’s considered one of the game's most dependable backstops.

Phillies 8, Rockies 5 game notes

Beerleaguer's streak of picking games has ended, but so has the Phils’ three-game skid. They beat the Rockies 8-5 last night behind more strong hitting from Chase Utley.

Utley hit a two-run, towering job in the fifth and added a two-run double in the ninth in a 3-5 night at the plate with a career-high five RBIs. Tomas Perez had the game-winning RBI in the ninth, scoring pinch runner Matt Kata.

Starter Robinson Tejeda was destined to struggle, but proved me wrong once again.

Tejeda struggled with his control a bit and allowed the lead-off man to reach four times, but hung in there in the thin Denver air, lasting 5 1-3 innings, giving up two earned runs, three walks while striking out four.

I keep waiting for a meltdown with Tejeda, but it’s only happened maybe twice all year. He’ll give up his walks and singles (1.40 WHIP), but rarely has the kind of inning his opponent, Byung-Hyun Kim, had in the fifth.

After holding the Phils to one run over four, the little twerp finally got wild – including two wild pitches, a key Kenny Lofton two-run single, and the Utley homer.

It looked like it was going to be another night when Phillies hitters would be neutralized by the Crain Technique. They tend to struggle -- at least in the early innings -- against pitchers from the far east. Remember the game against Jae Seo earlier in the season when he shutout the Phils over seven innings, but the next day was sent down to Triple-A Norfolk? Typical Phillies.

Guys like Pat Burrell and David Bell still don’t have a lifetime hit off the Korean sub-mariner, but Utley and the rest of the crew exposed him for what he really is -- a terrible pitcher overstaying his welcome in Major League Baseball.

Other notes:

• Pat Burrell has one hit on this road trip and is now hitting about .230 away from Citizen’s Bank Park.
• Endy Chavez added another pinch hit last night. L’il Endy is hitting .267, while his arch rival, Marlon Byrd, is at .245. I’d love to see Endy flash his speed, but the guys hitting behind him keep tapping into double plays or a fielder’s choice. He also provides a nice l'il defensive sub late in games.
• Over the last few nights, it’s obvious the Phils are seeing what they got in the bullpen. It wasn’t a great night for Ugueth Urbina, making me a little nervous they’ll hold on to Billy Wagner.
• It was good to see Kenny Lofton finally drive in some RBIs. For the month, he only has three of them. If I was manager Charlie Manuel, I would have started Jason Michaels last night. Lofton has been used like a full-timer lately because they haven’t seen many left-handers. Both players appear to perform better on a strictly part-time basis.
• It's not likely I'll pick the Rockies the rest of this series. They are a bunch of no-names. I've never even heard of their catcher.

Thome headed for Tommy John?

There's a lot to discuss, so I'll start with the obvious.

From a note I received via e-mail from a member of the Philadelphia media: There’s speculation Jim Thome could be headed for Tommy John surgery.

If it’s true, Ryan Howard isn’t going anywhere (but stranger things have happened).

At once, I’m breathing a sigh of relief and letting out a gasp that Thome’s future is in serious doubt.

Pitchers bounce back from Tommy John and actually add velocity, but what about someone like Thome, a power hitter with an ailing back? I’m not so sure. I assumed he’d be shot by 2008, but the Indians guessed right with 2005.

If Tommy John is needed, the future is now for RyHo, his job in Philadelphia looks secure through at least next season. The 25-year-old has delivered big hits in his brief time with the Phils, and appears ready to play at this level.

I’m saddened about Thome, even though I’ve never been much of a fan. He’s a tremendous over-swinger who’s easily stumped, but a healthy Thome would still be an improvement over the inexperienced Howard, especially against tough, savvy pitchers like the big three of Houston.

Next issue: Bobby Abreu and the vanished post. I wrote a scathing indictment of Abreu’s lack of hustle last night in the second, lazing after a fly ball and letting it drop for a hit. The run scored on an RBI double the next play.

The post was juiced with a lot of caffeine and venom, bashing the right-fielder to play the game like the game’s elite would play it – with fire, passion and urgency. For the reader comments, check below.

Why’d I delete it, you ask?

Meh.

It wasn’t my style.

Plus, the entire offense deserves blame for being swept, not just Abreu. One homer and four XBH all series. They had chances, but froze. Tom Goodman has a good take on Swing and a Miss.

Berks County Karnack
I’ve been called a lot of things, but Berks County Karnack was never one of them.

Tom Goyne at Balls Sticks & Stuff has taken notice of my recent hot streak of predictions, including the sweep of the Padres and sweep at the hands of the Astros. Currently, my pick to win the division – Atlanta – is sitting in first and starting to distance themselves from the pack. When it comes to the Bravos, it's always an easy pick.

I don’t want to get in the habit of picking Phils games, but for one more, here’s my take on tonight’s contest with the Rockies:

You know you're a bad team if you have Byung-Hyun Kim in the starting rotation. He’s 2-8 with a 5.28 ERA. I thought he would be more of a home run guy with his goofy submarine garbage, but he’s not all that bad – and actually hasn’t been over his career.

It's easy to think the Phils should roll, but Tejeda could get bombed just as easily – maybe easier – in that pitcher hell. Is anyone surprised at these numbers against Kim:

Lifetime vs. Kim
Burrell (0-8)
Bell (0-4)
Lieberthal (0-6)
Abreu (2-4, 1 HR)
Rollins (3-10, 1 2B)

There’s something about Kim that reminds me of the type of pitchers the Phils tend to struggle against. Kaz Ishii is one of those guys. And Jae Seo. I can’t put my finger on it.

I’m picking the Rockies in a high-scoring heartbreaker, with Tejeda getting rocked by the Rox.

If this comes true, I’m heading down to Philadelphia Park.

Mets, Phillies born from same petry dish?

Has anyone noticed the Mets and Phillies are playing like clones lately?

For starters, they have almost identical records (Phils 52-49, Mets 51-49) and they’re both good at home and terrible on the road (Phils 33-22 home, 19-27 road; Mets 32-21 home, 19-28 road).

The Mets are coming off a 7-3 homestand that included a sweep of the Padres. The Phillies are coming off a 9-4 homestand that included a sweep of the Padres.

Both teams have recently embarked on a west coast swing and stumbled out of the gate 0-2.

The similarities don’t stop there. They have first-year managers who’ve faced harsh criticism this season. They have veterans who are under-performing and inconsistencies from game to game. Even their payrolls are in the same ballpark (Mets $101 million; Phils $95 million) And as the deadline draws near, nobody can figure out whether these teams are buyers or sellers, including their own GMs.

Statistically, they have the same kind of middle-of-the-pack slugging offense (Phils .415 SLG; Mets .414 SLG). The Phils have one more home run than the Mets (103 to 102). They split with OBP (the Phils are third in baseball, the Mets are second last), but they make up the difference in ERA (Mets 3.89, Phils 4.47).

I get the feeling by the end of the season, they’ll finish .500, tied for third, with equally pissed fans.

The only thing seperating them now is a half game, the baseball equivalent of a mild cloning abnormality, like webbed toes.

Skip it: Phils unwatchable on the road

Fans have the luxury of skipping games like last night. The Phillies wish they could do the same.

For the first time since the Boston series, I missed back-to-back games. With Boston, I had an excuse. I was out of town attending a wedding.

This time, it was completely intentional.

Before this series, I gave the Phils no shot at winning, and after two, they’re 0-2, scoring a total of two runs.

So I traded Phillies for chores. I caught up on laundry, cleaned the litter box, started to assemble a NordicTrak, and even had time to watch the Kevin Costner and Joan Allen film “The Upside of Anger.” I recommend it.

From the Comcast highlights, the Phils had some upsides of offense against Roy Oswalt, but squandered a number of run-scoring opportunities with men on base. Jon Lieber was up to task for the second time in a row, matching Oswalt until he was removed for a pinch hitter in the seventh.

One look at the box score this morning told an odd story of late-inning pitching decisions by fill-in manager Gary Varsho. Ugueth Urbina came on in the eighth and shut them down, even though Lieber's pitch could was at 80. But then Varsh called on Ryan Madson to pitch the 1-1 ninth. It wasn’t a save opportunity, but it was certainly a much more difficult than most of those. The result – a walk-off homer on his second pitch.

Good closers can balance themselves on a cliff knowing there’s nothing behind them to break their fall. They grab the ball and shut the door. Madson has never been used as a closer, so why use him in this spot knowing he’s struggled recently? Was Billy Wagner unavailable?

What can we learn? The Phillies are an easy team not to watch away from the Bank.

Trade rumor update: I read somewhere that the Phillies are interested in Tampa Bay closer Danys Baez. If that's the case, it's likely they're positioning themselves to move either Wagner or Urbina.

Conlin reading Beerleaguer? Probably not, but columnist Bill Conlin brought up many of the same points I wrote in my Wagner piece below last evening on Daily News Live. He said if the Red Sox want Wagner, they should be prepared to move third baseman Kevin Youkilis and catcher Kelly Shoppach. He also said Youkilis could help the Phils right now.

Stop kidding, Ed, and trade Wagner

When talking about the available pitchers the Phillies may covet in a trade, A.J. Burnett should be the absolute cutoff before things hit Kip Wells territory. After that, there isn’t a single option that would get the Phils even an inch closer to the postseason.

The bottom line is – the options stink.

Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus has been keeping a running log of things he’s heard or read. As of 10:28 a.m., Burnett is off the market – for now. That means his top suitor, the Red Sox, are talking to the Twins about a deal for J.C. Romero, Kevin Youkilis and Joe Mays.

The teams that are absolutely serious about the playoffs – the BoSox and White Sox – are also the teams in best shape to make impact deals. There are a number of prospects I’d try to wiggle away from Boston GM Theo Epstein if I was manning the ship, including third baseman Youkilis. I’d want Youkilis for one reason only: he’s young and ready to play at this level. He’s batting about .315 in Triple-A Pawtucket.

However, you can’t make deals with two hands tied behind your back, and reports say the biggest chip, Billy Wagner, is off the market. I’m sure dozens of GMs are on the floor laughing at that one.

I’d make teams beg for Wagner. Top of the line catching, third base or pitching prospects. Pick two, then you can have Wagner. The old rumor had Wags to Boston for Bronson Arroyo, Youkilis and minor league catcher Kelly Shoppach.

Three words. In a heartbeat.

The more you read the sobering headlines about Gavin Floyd’s mechanics or Cole Hamels' health, the more you wish the Phils had more than two stinkin’ pitching prospects in their farm system. The way things are going, they could have zero by the end of the season.

Wouldn’t it be nice to have at least one more golden arm in the minors beside the two they have now? Who’s the Phillies catcher next season if Mike Lieberthal is really playing on one leg? And shouldn’t there be some plan for third beyond David Bell?

When talking trades, the Phils have many holes beyond starting pitching, with a chance to address several of them by moving the one guy that doesn't help them much.

Essential reading on minorities in baseball

Among the many subjects discussed at Friday night’s blog meet-up at Citizen’s Bank Park was the subject of race and the international integration of baseball.

One of the most appealing aspects of baseball, over all major U.S. sports, is how international the game has become. Without going into too much detail, I wanted to pass along two, must-read resources on the subject – a 2003 article written by Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci, and the book "Away Games" about the early career of Miguel Tejada playing in the Dominican Republic.

The Verducci article, titled "Blackout," focuses on the vanishing African-American baseball player. The piece was published using the emergence of young star Dontrelle Willis as a springboard, but players like Cliff Floyd and the Phillies' own Jimmy Rollins contribute heavily to the story, focusing on a diminishing black presence in profession baseball.

Be sure to read Rollins’ quote on how his friends in Oakland react to his choice of profession.

The second is a great book titled "Away Games" on the early life and career of Miguel Tejada, growing up dirt poor in the Dominican Republic. At age 17, he signed a contract with the A's for $2,000 and eventually worked his way through the farm system, eclipsing higher-touted prospects on his way to the majors. Today, he’s the best shortstop in baseball.

The book’s authors - Marcos Brenton and Jose Luis Villegas - show incredible foresight in spotlighting the budding star out of a list of hundreds. But the most fascinating part of "Away Games" details the practice of drafting Dominican players by the hundreds and filtering out the bad ones like a sieve. Most of the players never make it, not because of a lack of talent, but for lack of disciple playing the organized sport. 

Still, teams like the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Dodgers have developed players this way for years, knowing the young men will jump at any opportunity to escape the island. The book also shows the downside of failure, taking the reader inside a Dominican ghetto right outside Yankee Stadium in the Bronx where former players still play sandlot ball.

This is a fascinating story, and like Tejada, a real sleeper.

Keeping the Howard, Thome situation in perspective

Should Ryan Howard keep his job when Jim Thome comes off the DL? Not if Thome is 100 percent healthy.

On the surface, if any fan would be ready to anoint Ryan Howard the full-time job at first, it would be me. Just ask my wife.

Beerleaguer base camp - a smallish computer desk that once belonged to my in-laws – has but one decoration: a Ryan Howard bobble head perched next to my Bill James Handbook, Baseball Prospectus annual and back issues of Baseball America. And somewhere buried under the clutter are three Ryan Howard autographs in various forms, in addition to a fading Reading Eagle poster we ran last season.

Watching Howard tear through town was a blast, and seeing him deliver big hits for the Phillies during the recent homestand is a credit to the emerging star. But a 100 percent healthy Thome would be even better, especially in situations like the upcoming series against Houston.

It’s one thing for Howard to produce in the comfort of Citizen’s Bank Park against the Tim Stauffers of the world, but it’s an entirely different game to keep that momentum going on the road against good teams. In 34 at bats this season away from the Bank, Howard is hitting just .118, .162 OBP, .118 SLG, with no homers. For a list of pitchers he’s faced to achieve his .263 BA, 6 homers overall, click here.

I can confidently write that the young slugger is about to face the toughest pitching of his life, starting with left-hander Andy Pettitte tonight, followed by Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens.

In a perfect world, the Phillies would rather have Thome this series. He’s 9-16 (.316 BA, .830 OPS) lifetime against Pettitte, and against Clemens, try 21-57 with 8 homers. (He's 1-6 against Oswalt).

Thome’s return in contingent on being 100 percent healthy. The biggest key here is honesty. If Thome isn’t 100 percent, he needs to sit, and Charlie Manuel must make him sit. It’s not like Tomas Perez is the only option.

Stranger things have happened, and I wouldn't be completely bowled over if Howard stays productive this series, but in a perfect world, I'd rather have Thome in this situation.

Pratt, Perez + / -
In games when Todd Pratt and Tomas Perez had three or more plate appearances: Todd Pratt: 17 wins, 9 losses. Tomas Perez: 13 wins, 9 losses

Padres series wrap, Astros series preview

The Phils complete a sweep of the struggling Padres and hit the road to face Andy Pettitte and the surging Astros. They finish the homestand 9-4, but need to show what they’re made of on the road.

It’s hard to view the Phillies 9-4 homestand as a joyous accomplishment. Sure, they’ve pulled back into the playoff hunt, and sure, they beat two division leaders - the Nationals and Padres - in the process, but it’s been a while since the Phillies faced a team that really had their act together.

And it's been even longer since they’ve proven themselves on the road.

Enter Houston, a team that’s surging at the right time and in position to battle the Phils for a wild card birth until the bitter end.

The same can’t be said for the Padres, who were walking cadavers this series, especially with the bats. The Padres may end up winning their joke division, but they’ll be an easy wild card draw. They were hitting a collective .200 or so over the last few weeks and showed few signs of life after Friday’s 8-6 loss.

So it’s hard to say whether the three Phils starters – Vicente Padilla, Robinson Tejeda and Brett Myers – looked impressive, or whether the Pads helped them more with pathetic offense. Aside from some snapshot moments, like Chase Utley’s two homers or Ryan Howard’s doubles yesterday, the offense was good but not great this series.

The Padres lost every game on their six-game road swing and get to regroup Tuesday when they’re back home to face St. Louis.

Now it’s the Phillies' turn to show what they’re made of on the road.

The Phils play 37 of their last 63 games away from Citizen's Bank Park, where the team is 19-25 (.431). The last time they had a road trip of any length was the June 14-19 trip out west against the Mariners and A’s, resulting in a deflating 2-4 record after the 12-1 homestand.

Right off the bat, they smack head-on into the big three of Houston – Andy Pettitte (7-7, 2.82 ERA), Roy Oswalt (13-8, 2.41) and Roger Clemens (8-4, 1.40). All three are in the hunt for Cy Young.

Tonight’s game has loss written all over it. The last time they faced a left-handed starter was Odalis Perez in the Dodgers series and they were shut out. The Phils will have a tough adjustment against a red-hot Pettitte, in addition to playing their first road game in three weeks.

If there’s an argument as to why it’s important to carry at least one left-hander in a starting rotation – simply to throw something different at a team - tonight could be the night. Pettitte hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in six consecutive starts, going 4-0 with a 0.88 ERA in that span.

The Astros are returning home after winning seven of eight to close an 11-game trip.

Sunday morning digest: Beating the beatable

A look at Games 1 and 2 of the Padres series and other issues in Phillies land.

Saturday: Phillies 2, Padres 0 – All the Phils needed was a Chase Utley homer in the fourth to beat the struggling Padres yesterday at Citizen’s Bank Park, 2-0.

Utley’s 14th homer of the season was his second game-winner in as many games. Since the All-Star break, Utley has carried the offense on his back and continues to deliver big hits.

Aside from Utley, the story yesterday was a Padres offense that rolled over and died. Entering the series, their bats were ice cold, having been swept by the Mets at Shea the previous series. Yesterday, they couldn’t capitalize on five Robinson Tejeda walks (2-2). Otherwise, the surprising rookie pitched six strong innings, and also tripled for his first major league hit. Ryan Madson, Rheal Cormier and Billy Wagner chipped in to preserve the shutout in relief.

It must have been a surreal game for the Pads, who had a busy day off the field. They acquired third baseman Joe Randa from Cincinnati for two minor league pitchers. They also optioned third baseman Sean Burroughs to Triple-A Portland.

The team has also reached an agreement with the Orioles on a deal that would send long-time first baseman Phil Nevin to Baltimore for pitcher Sidney Ponson, but Nevin would need to lift his no-trade clause for the deal to go through.

For whatever reason, the Pads didn’t show up yesterday.

Broadcast notes
I listened to much of the game on WEEU in Reading. Scott Graham of the Phillies Radio Network was pared with Tom McCarthy, Harry Kalas and Chris Wheeler were together for at least part of it, and Larry Andersen was on the Fox television broadcast with Kenny Albert.

I’m not sure whether Graham flew solo on radio. I find him to be quite seamless when he works alone. Between pitches, he reminds listeners of the score frequently, paints a picture of where defenders are positioned, and describes the weather and crowd often. A listener that just tunes in can be caught up quickly on the action.

I watched the second half on television. It doesn't matter what company he keeps, the former pitcher can’t escape jabs at his poor hitting.

Friday: Phillies 8, Padres 6 – Utley was wearing a tough 0-5 collar before one big swing turned the night into one of the best games of his career.

The team’s most valuable player hit a two-out, two-run homer in the bottom of the 11th inning to lift the Phils over the Padres 8-6.

The ball was flying all over the place in this one, a soupy, uncomfortable night down at the Bank. Ryan Howard added his sixth of the season, and Brian Giles, Mark Loretta and Geoff Blum each homered for the Pads.

Vicente Padilla was brilliant through the first four, but became unglued in the fifth. It was still his third solid start in a row, going six innings, with six strikeouts and three earned runs.

Rheal Cormier and Ryan Madson were roughed up in relief, combining for three earned runs in the seventh.

Aaron Fultz pitched two scoreless innings for the win. Ex-Phillie Paul Quantrill took the loss.

Bell and the bases loaded
The Phils had a chance to end the game with the bases loaded, no outs in the 10th, but David Bell went after the first pitch and grounded into a double play to squelch that fire. It was completely unacceptable. After that, Mike Lieberthal predictably ended the threat on a grounder.

My man
L’il Endy Chavez delievered a big two-run single in the sixth inning. Chavez is a small player playing a small part on this team and I’ve never had an issue with the trade that brought him here. Interestingly, Chavez was almost pegged by two pitches that would have probably hit Marlon Byrd in his ever-expanding rear end.

Bloggers in the house
The game was attended by the Beerleaguer, Tom Goodman of Swing and a Miss, Tom Goyne of Balls, Sticks & Stuff and Tom Durso of Shallow Center in the unofficial first meeting of the Phlogger roundtable. Brian Peoples of Philling Station was said to be in attendance. We were also joined briefly by columnist Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Be sure to check out those and other great Phillies blogs in the sidebar on the right. Check out Salisbury’s trade rumor article here.

George S on Matt Kata
Much of our blog discussion centered on my favorite reader, George S., who posts thoughtful Phillies comments from his home in southeast Asia. In an e-mail to Goodman of Swing and a Miss, George S. had this to say about the Matt Kata deal:

"One thing about the Kata pickup: it frees the Phillies to move Chavez to NY if they can get anything for him (a used fungo and a bucket of balls would do). Kata can apparently play CF."

That's certainly a possibility. Another viable replacement for Chavez would be Rule 5 pick Shane Victorino, a defensive specialist who's having a nice season in Scranton, especially with the bat. Victorino lost a battle to Byrd for the final outfield spot this spring. Victorino blasted the go-ahead two-run homer for the Barons last night. For the season, he has 15 homers and is batting .278.

Triple-A notes
I got a number of e-mails thanking me for my useful post on Scranton catcher Carlos Ruiz and decided to follow-up with an e-mail to Chad Jennings of the Scranton Times-Tribune on pitcher Eude Brito. Brito has been mentioned as a possible call-up. Here's what Jennings said:

My first thought on Brito is that I can't overstate how good he's been since he joined the rotation. He was horrible at the beginning of the year out of the bullpen, but he's been lights out ever since the switch. One or two shaky starts, but otherwise very consistent and very good. Probably the best in the rotation lately.

From what I hear, the Phillies think he will eventually go back to the bullpen because he's a lefty with a 92 to 93 mph fastball. He just profiles better as a reliever. But his time in the rotation has certainly brought his confidence up. He's been using a two-seam fastball a lot, mixing it with a live changeup and a slider. Like I said, he's been terrific.

In my opinion, Brito, Condrey and Liriano are all guys to watch as possible call ups. Condrey is up right now, but probably won't be for long. My guess is that whenever the Phillies need another arm, they'll go with whichever of those three is ready to pitch.

I question why the Phillies would pin Brito down as a reliever when he’s done so well as a starter. It reminds me of Carlos Silva, how they said he’d pitch better as a reliever, when in fact his low walk totals and control were perfect to keep him as a starter. Just ask the Twins.

Is Madson getting restless?
Ryan Madson hasn’t been as crisp this season and I wonder if it’s partially due to restlessness as a reliever. He’s been teased with joining the rotation if Padilla faltered, but Vinny Pads turned it around lately and his job appears secure. Madson was an excellent starter in the minors, and given the choice, I’m sure he’d love to be starting games again.

Beerleaguer trade rumor roundtable

Beerleaguer author Jason Weitzel discusses trade possibilities with his stepfather, Martin Smith.

Jason: I’m sitting here looking at the cover of Baseball America. The headline is “Brave New World: Atlanta goes with a wholesale youth movement, led by prospects like Kyle Davies, as it tries for its 14th straight trip to the playoffs.”

I look at this and say “I want this.” I want the Phillies to get younger and compete the way Atlanta does.

Martin: With Clearwater, Reading and Scranton, they’re so far behind the curve, they can’t become the Braves overnight. It’s a whole philosophical overhaul. I’ve played enough sports to know that if you’re 22-65, like Clearwater, it sucks. It totally sucks. Even Cole Hamels … when he got to Reading. he was quoted as saying he was glad to be out of that losing environment. There must be such a negative feeling when you leave the stadium and know that you and your team stink, and it happens on so many levels with the Phils. That much losing – there’s something to be said about that. I don’t know when it went wrong, but it’s all wrong.

Jason: The Phils need to break it down and start doing things the way the Braves do it. I'm a big believer in their method.

Martin: With the Braves, it’s “draft pitching, draft pitching, draft pitching, and always get a young pitcher in a trade.” The second key is patience. You’ve got to have patience. Bobby Cox was patient with Kelly Johnson. He went something like 1-30 to start, Cox was patient, and soon he was player of the week. The other Braves philosophy is “Don’t panic.” Go to the minors. Don’t sign big contracts. Don’t panic. Atlanta won’t go on a spending spree. They can’t. They rarely do a rent-a-player. Their philosophy is bring up the young guys. Baseball American reported that nine of the 15 top prospects in the organization played with Atlanta this season by mid July, and 14 rookies overall. I think the Braves are the elite organization, and it’s not the Oakland A’s. Thirteen in a row. Pheew.

Jason: The Braves are prophets. Sometimes Ed Wade listens to fans too much, even though most people believe the opposite. Maybe it's because they don't have any fans, but the Braves march to a different drummer. They’ve played through injury successfully so many times by plugging in rookies. Can the Phillies do the same with rookies they have in the high farm system?

Martin: Midseason report in Baseball America – the best prospect is Michael Bourn in Reading. Biggest disappointment: Reading third baseman Juan Richardson.

Jason: I disagree. The biggest disappointment has to be Gavin Floyd.

Martin: Yup. It has to be. But he’s still the key. Get him straightened out. Then they have their pitcher. A good Gavin Floyd would be better than Kip Wells. That’s my opinion. Another good story is Eude Brito in Scranton, 12.33 ERA as reliever, 3.02 as a starter. But the key is Floyd. You even said it in your blog … bring him up and let him work under Dubee.

Jason: Let’s cut to the chase and talk trades. Billy Wagner, Vicente Padilla, Ryan Howard, Jim Thome, and recently, Mike Lieberthal and David Bell have been mentioned in trade rumors. Let’s throw out Thome, Lieberthal and Bell because nobody wants them. How about Wagner? If they don’t have a chance to compete, why keep him?

Martin: I think you have to look at the division. It’s so tight. Who scares you the most? Who will win it? It’s still Atlanta. I’m positive Schuerholz will trade for relief pitching. Wildcard? Cubs? Astros? I still think the Phillies have the best lineup in the division. That’s based on Thome healthy, Abreu when he’s hitting, Utley is the best second baseman in the division, J-Roll and Bell field their positions, etc., etc., and Pat the Bat gets hot every so often. But pitching … they don’t have it.

Jason: That’s on paper. It never plays out consistently on the field with this offense. I think Wagner can fetch two prospects from the Red Sox, possibly for thin positions like catcher and third base. I don’t think they can get pitching right now through trades. Kip Wells or Ted Lilly won't help a team that scores two runs or less every third game.

Martin: I don’t think they can either. A.J. Burnett would be good, but they’re still not going to get it done with him. Jason Schmidt – they say his velocity is way, way down. When he does win, it’s all on guile. You can’t buy pitching this year. Mark Redman? Kip Wells? Those guys are getting bombed! Maybe you get lucky with a flash in the pan, but more likely you don’t. Cory Lidle was an exception last year. He was so-so in Cincinnati, got hot with the Phils, and that has worked out until recently.

Jason: Is Thome cooked?

Martin: If we look at the records of all the Hall of Famers, I bet a lot of them have had one bad year, from the 32-35-year-old track. There have been great players that have had awful years. It’s happened, and they’ve recovered. He could be cooked with injuries – or maybe it’s one bad year. Something good could come out of Thome yet – or he could become Dave Kingman.

Jason: Nobody's talking much about Padilla. Do you think they should trade Padilla? I’d do it straight up for a prospect.

Martin: Someone in the Phillies organization has to know where Padilla’s head is at. A guy like Padilla or Daniel Cabrera in Baltimore – when they’re on, they’re good. Heading into the 2004 season, I would have said Padilla was the best pitcher in the organization. But he’s a problem that’s tough to solve. I’d trade him if the deal was right. You pointed it out in your blog … they gave him patience, and he hasn’t given up a run in two outings when he absolutely, positively had to turn it around. Padilla’s got stuff at times.

Jason: One unpopular trade rumor involves Ryan Howard for pitcher Kip Wells and catcher Humberto Cota of the Pirates. If the Phils can muscle out the good young catcher in the Pirates organization instead of Cota -- Ryan Doumit -- I’d consider it. For me, the only deal for Howard would involve  a stud young catcher and a pitcher.

Martin: Pittsburgh apparently has three good catchers. They say Doumit has a wonderful swing, but so did Von Hayes.

If I was in charge, I’d go forward with this team for now, keep Howard, but trade Wagner at the last possible minute. And if they didn’t do it (make the playoffs), I’d overhaul like you couldn’t believe. Replacing David Bell and Mike Lieberthal isn’t a glaring need immediately, but in the offseason, it needs to be addressed. Eventually, you need to get a third baseman and a catcher. In terms of pitching, Tejeda has been a fluke. I wish it was Gavin Floyd up here, not him. I’m of the opinion they shouldn’t make any moves … unless it’s Billy Wagner.

Jason: My thoughts on Wagner … he must go at the 11th hour of the deadline to fetch the best price, whether they’re in contention or out of it. Boston has a young catcher named …

Martin: Schloppic or something.

Jason: Sputnik? Shmomo? Do you think they can compete for the playoffs without Wagner? I do.

Martin: Yes, but he’s one of the best relievers in the National League. UU has been pretty damn encouraging. If they trade Billy Wagner, fans will say they’re packing it in. I wouldn’t say that.

Jason: I wouldn’t either. Even the best teams make trades to get younger.

Martin: Gavin Floyd is a big key in all this. He was on the cover of the “Baseball America Super Baseball Register 2003” for God’s sake. On paper, the Phillies still look good. There should be no weaknesses in that lineup. But Atlanta doesn’t lose 1-0 games the way the Phils do. Go figure.

Jason: Well, we covered just about everything. A recap …The Phillies must get younger; philosophical change in order; trade Wagner for prospects; pull somebody aside that speaks Padilla’s language and find out what’s the deal; Gavin Floyd is a big key; hold on to Howard. As for next season, overhaul like you couldn’t believe if the playoffs aren’t attained. Wholesale change either way.

Paying the devil his due

It was one of those games last night at the Bank, as the Phils botched a funky one 10-2 to the Dodgers.

It hasn’t happened to the Phils all season. The token blowout. Over half the team looked terrible.

What do you do? Treat it like any other loss, buck up and win the series this afternoon to keep this homestand momentum going. Sweeps are difficult achievements anyway.

It started with Cory Lidle having another brutal outing. He lasted just four innings, allowing seven runs and an un-Lilde-like two homers. He’s been brilliant in that department until this game, and this is his second rough outing in as many tries.

It’s tough going down 7-0 that early, but the rest of the game turned sloppy. Bobby Abreu is officially in a funk both at the plate and in the field. Kenny Lofton is, too, even though he went 1-2.

On the other side, I’m partial to foreign league players who hang on forever just to get their shot. Oscar Robles, the 29-year-old rookie, is that type of player. From what I’ve seen this series, the third baseman can flat-out hit. He has a beautiful swing and shortens up when he’s down in the count. Robles went 2-4 with a walk and a double after hitting his first career homer the night before. For the season, he’s batting .355 with a .425 OBP out of that leadoff spot.

What a find. The Dodgers had a massive hole at third and considered trading for Placido Polanco. Instead, they fill it on the cheap with a productive Mexican leaguer. What a concept.

A letter to Charlie

Dear Charlie:

I wanted to take this opportunity to set the record straight on a couple issues we’ve been having.

I made some unsavory comments at the beginning of the season. I know I was cruel, and I’d like apologize for calling you Charlie from Mayberry, a bumbling fool, the Incredible Melting Man, or anything else I said.

When you botched the double switch, I’ll admit, I would have botched it, too. When my readers second-guessed decisions that actually worked – like the platoon -- for that, you have my deepest regrets.

I still don’t like they way you wear your hat military-style, or that your personal hero is Ronald Reagan, but those are issues for another day.

Today is your day, Charlie. Today is your day.

The purpose of this letter isn’t to lavish credit for this small turnaround. You’re not the one with the bat in your hand smacking two-out RBIs like Chase Utley, or game-winning homers like Ryan Howard.

The real purpose is to thank you for a couple of subtle choices that have made this club better:

Sticking with Vicente Padilla: He’s a former all-star recovering from health issues. Why didn’t I think of that?

Making Robinson Tejeda a starter: More out of necessity than anything else. You had the guts to insert a rookie into the starting five just like the Braves would, and the move paid off big during a rough patch.

Assigning strict bullpen roles: I’ve always been a fan of this. Since the Phils acquired Ugueth Urbina, the bullpen assignments have been Ryan Madson or Rheal Cormier for the seventh, Urbina for the eighth and Billy Wagner to close – and the regiment is working. I blame Tim Worrell for throwing the whole thing out of whack.

The new lineup: I dig it. Is it because they’re scoring more runs? Yes. Yes it is. I also like Utley higher in the order. Why not throw a weapon like Chase at a pitcher early? Put the fear of god in him.

I hope I’ve set the record straight, Pops. I know you're not as sophisticated in your thinking as we are, but you're doing OK for yourself lately. Good luck with the rest of the season, and in your words last night in the post-game, here’s to “keeping staying after it.”

Your friend,
Jason

The Great Eraser and the Chaser

Tonight’s marvelous game was courtesy of Ryan Howard. He erased a horrible night at the plate, including three strikeouts, by belting a walk-off, two-run blast to center in the 10th inning, leading the Phils over the Dodgers 5-4 to open the series.

Howard also erased a tough outing by Billy Wagner, who threw 43 pitches over two innings, well over his limit. He hurt his chances of taking advantage of that cheap airfare to Boston by tying a career high with three walks and surrendering a go-ahead run in the tenth.

Howard’s blast also erased, or at least lessened the chance of, Wags charging back into the locker room and giving Bobby Abreu the business. Abreu missed a ball that should have been caught, extending the marathon inning for Wags.

And way back when, it erased another shaky start by Brett Myers, who started things out by allowing a home run to Oscar (grab your Mexican league stat book) Robles to lead off the game.

What else does it erase? Oh yes. National League Player of the Week and Beerleaguer first-half MVP Chase Utley is totally on fire, and delivered another two-out RBI.

I'm also high on Ugueth Urbina and Pat Burrell, but that will have to wait.

And I’m down on Kenny Lofton and Abreu at the moment. That, too, will have to wait.

Because tonight, it’s time to celebrate, as the predictable unpredictability called Phillies baseball is taking this writer back into my archived win-streak templates.

Tomorrow’s post shall be called ... ah yes ... “A glimmer of hope.”

Prospect watch: Carlos Ruiz, C

Red Barons beat writer Chad Jennings of the Times-Tribune in Scranton checks in with his thoughts on Beerleaguer favorite son, Carlos Ruiz.

Beerleaguer: Readers of this space know I’m a fan of catcher Carlos Ruiz. He had some great slugging numbers in Reading and it continues this season up in Moosic. On paper, it certainly looks like he has a chance to produce in the majors, at least as a backup.

What are your thoughts on Chooch? Is he healthy, and does he figure into the long-term plans of the Phils?

Chad Jennings: I would call Carlos a guy who intrigues the Phillies. I don't think they are banking on him as their catcher of the future, but he's certainly done enough to keep the team's attention.

He's aggressive to the point of occasionally being reckless behind the plate. He's always trying to pick guys off at first, third and even second base. I'm not saying that's a bad thing -- when's the last time you could call a guy "exciting" to watch catch? -- but I bet the Phillies would like to see him calm down a little back there. That said, he has a strong arm. He's thrown out 10 and allowed 19 steals. Not great, but not bad.

As a hitter he's got just enough pop and just enough speed for extra bases. Just look at his seven triples this year. I don't think he'll ever be a true home run threat, but he's not a slap singles guy either. Thing is, it's impossible to say whether he can hit like that in the big leagues. There have been times he's looked overmatched at this level. But you're right, his slugging numbers are impressive for a catcher. He hasn't really done anything to suggest he can't hit in the majors, just hasn't done enough to make it a sure thing that he can.

You asked about the time at DH. I don't think that's an indication of his health, rather an indication of Gene Lamont wanting to get A.J. Hinch in the game but keep Ruiz in the lineup. He moves around on that knee just fine.

A couple of things to remember about Ruiz:

1. He's a converted infielder. He was a second baseman in Panama but the Phillies tried him behind the plate and signed him as a catcher, despite the fact he'd never really played there.

2. This is his seventh year in the organization and he's 26 years old. He's not particularly young for this level and most of the kinks should be worked out. He needs to get to the big leagues pretty soon.

I think he'll get a legitimate shot in spring training next year. Maybe not to start, but to be the No. 2 guy. His numbers the past two years have been pretty impressive, but before that his numbers were so-so at best. I think that's why there are still questions about his ability to play at the next level. Is he played beyond his ability right now or was he playing below his ability back then?

Personally, I think he can play in the big leagues in some capacity. I hope he gets a shot fairly soon. There is definitely not another catcher in the system who is remotely close to playing in Philadelphia, and the Phillies are going to need a catcher pretty soon.

Contact Chad Jennings at cjennings@timesshamrock.com.

On Jim Thome and the ultimate crossroads

The signing of Jim Thome back in December of 2002 represents a fact most Phillies fans don’t want to hear: general manager Ed Wade listens to fans too much.

The baseball landscape in 2002 was different than it is today. The Yankees were winning championships by spending the most, a simple solution adopted by most fans. "If you wanted to win, you needed to spend." The team had long been stingy with their bucks, and many fans equated failure with an unwillingness to open their wallets.

Meanwhile, small-market teams like the Twins and Athletics were figuring out ways to win on a tight budget, taking their farm system seriously, holding on to top prospects and seeking value among free agents and through trades. They refused to sign players long-term, knowing when it was time to say goodbye to a veteran and build for the future. Today, the Twins and A’s remain the most consistently competitive teams in baseball and are perennial playoff contenders.

In Philadelphia, a new ballpark was on the horizon, adding to the false illusion that if you simply build another Camden Yards, the team would excel out from the oppression of Veterans Stadium.

The Phils also believed they needed to field a competitor in order to sell tickets. They also needed a marquee star, and believed Thome could be the new face of franchise.

Before that, the team was already resigning existing players, the most black-and-white way to piece together a team. The trend started before the 2002 with the resigning of Bobby Abreu, a deal that would take him through 2007 with a club option for 2008, partially designed to show Scott Rolen a commitment to winning. Next was Mike Lieberthal, signing a lucrative three-year contract extension in August of 2002, taking him through 2005 with a club option for 2006. Later on, Randy Wolf signed a four-year extension in December, and Pat Burrell, coming off a career year, re-upped before the start of 2003. In every case, each player was already under contract and no deal was being forced.

Right in the middle of all this spending was the Thome signing, another easy answer for Ed Wade. With the Yankees out of the picture by signing Jason Giambi the year before, only two teams were bidding for his services: Cleveland and Philadelphia. Even before the end of the 2002 season, the Phils and their fans knew the team was going to throw a ton of cash someone’s way, and the biggest target was big Jim.

Statistically, he was the ultimate prize – the closest available answer to Barry Bonds a team could hope for. He was on his way to a career-high 52 home runs, 15 more than the Phils’ leader, Pat Burrell, with 37.

The talk in town centered on outbidding Cleveland for his services and whether Philadelphia would fit his family’s lifestyle. It didn’t matter that he was 32, or that there were cheaper alternatives offering shorter deals. All that mattered was the Phils spent the most to get him out of respect for their fans.

All told, the team spent $26 million more than Cleveland and rewarded him with an extra year that would keep him in town through 2008, a deal worth close to $85 million. The Indians said no because they doubted he could still bop homers past the age of 35. Thome is under contract through age 38.

Three days ago, he sat in the locker room and fielded questions about trade rumors. With three years left on his contract, turning 35 in August, he’s suffering from numerous ailments, including a bad back and bum elbow. There appear to be few bites from potential buyers, and the team would be forced to eat much of his contract if any deal is made.

In true Thome fashion, he tried to spin the probing question in a positive direction, even though his long-term future for him and his family might be in doubt.

Only now are the Phillies and fans beginning to see what smarter teams figured out years ago: you can win without spending. You can win with disgruntled players and their contracts, you can play through injuries, and not every move must be for the immediate.

The current buy or sell state is a real ideological crossroad for the team, but the quagmire is all because of those money-burning months between February 2002-2003. Wade traded flexibility for insurance, and the result is a team permanently stuck on the cusp of the playoffs. If no move is made, 2006’s core squad, to a man, will remain the same. The same, but older.

Allen Davis, Carlos Ruiz updates

I caught up on a season's worth of minor leagues this weekend. It's too much of a pain to keep up with it all year. It’s also far too difficult to write about it with any kind of accuracy.

Pitcher Allen Davis is back with Reading after earning a win in a call-up with Scranton. This must have been a temporary thing I missed. He pitched yesterday for the R-Phils, going six innings, allowing four earned runs in a no decision against Binghamton.

Catcher Carlos Ruiz is heating up in Scranton, .367 OBP, .489 SLG, .324 BA. He’s seeing time behind the plate and DH, splitting duties with A.J. Hinch.

Daily wisdom from a 30-year-old GM

From Theo Epstein, quoted recently by Peter Gammons:

"Why have the Braves been one of the greatest dynasties in sports?" asked Epstein. "They develop players, they keep the best and when they run into rough spots, they work through them, not panic and mortgage their future for the immediate."

Jayson Stark trade rumors

Buyers and sellers at the same time, indeed.

Jayson Stark reported today on ESPN’s Insider the Phils are listening to trade proposals for just about everybody, with the exception of Bobby Abreu and Chase Utley, but only if they get back players that give them a better chance to win right now.

Tops on Stark's list is Jim Thome, but he says chances of moving him are less than slim with only mild outside interest at the moment. Billy Wagner remains the team’s most tradable commodity and was scouted by the Red Sox, he reported.

Also, the Yankees (UPDATE: and Rangers) are monitoring the Vicente Padilla situation, in addition to Endy Chavez for center field.

Beerleaguer thoughts
It's interesting Brett Myers isn't on the list, indicating they're scared of offseason arbitration. I'd trade Abreu, too, but there would need to be serious booty involved. Now's the time to trade Padilla after a good start, but not to the Yanks because they don't have much to offer.

If they sold everyone mentioned above for prospects (Thome, Wagner, Padilla, Chavez), they would still be competitive.

Phils-Marlins series recap

Update: The highly-anticipated second part to my series recap has arrived!

• Pat Burrell tied his highest output of the season bashing two homers and driving in five runs in Thursday’s 13-7 win. He added another long ball and two RBIs Friday night and two RBIs Saturday, but went hitless yesterday.In all, it was great series for the inconsistent Burrell, whose 72 RBIs is now tied for second in the National League. For now, I’m putting away my book on the Bat, but with that swing, it’s only a matter of time before I reach for it again.
• Maligned catcher Mike Lieberthal had his best series of the year, matching Burrell with three home runs and going 6-11.
• The Phils certainly took advantage of their chances this series, delivering plenty of two-out RBIs and making the Marlins pay for every mistake - from the errors in Saturday’s game to Willis’ balk yesterday.
• The only regular that didn’t get into the act was Bobby Abreu, fresh off his 41-homer performance at the Derby. Don’t let the All-Star hype fool you. Abreu has been cold since June 11, hitting just two homers during that time and seeing his OPS drop from 1.031 to .940. Chase Utley (.925) and Pat Burrell (.905) are no longer far behind in that category.
• I picked Chase Utley over Abreu for my mid-season MVP and he certainly lived up to my reasoning this series. He went 8-for-17 with 10 RBIs in the four-game series, including a pair of run-scoring singles Sunday. But even more than clutch hits, the story has been his development against left-handed pitching, earning a very respectable line of .255 BA, .369 OBP, .509 SLG against southpaws this season, which has climbed ever since the Polanco trade.
• Ugueth Urbina has not allowed a hit in seven straight appearances. If the Phillies elect to keep both Billy Wagner and Urbina and somehow make the playoffs, they will have a mighty fine back end of the pen.
• Todd Zolecki reported Sunday that the Yankees are interested in acquiring Endy Chavez. A legitimate prospect is all I would ask in return. That’s more than the Phillies could have swung for Marlon Byrd this offseason.
• Danny Sandoval was called up from Triple-A Scranton to replace Geoff Geary and got into the game yesterday. Sandoval joins the team as a doubles hitter (37 in 2004) with a good batting average (.319 in 2004), but suspect defense (29 errors in 2004). Don't look for Sandoval as a late-inning replacement for Jimmy Rollins. For the Barons, he was hitting .350 with a .393 OBP and .473 SLG, including 17 doubles and six homers. Sandoval signed as a minor league free agent in November and played winter ball in Venezuela, joining Abreu, Tomas Perez, Chavez and Urbina as Phillies from that country. Yesterday marked his major league debut after spending eight seasons in the minors, including time in the White Sox and Rockies organizations.
• Brian Peoples has the most comprehensive take on Sunday’s win over at the Philling Station. Check it out.

Phils 8, Marlins 4 recap

Vicente Padilla leads the Phillies to an improbable win over Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins Sunday. It was the team’s second-straight series win against a division rival.

I agreed with the Philadelphia Inquirer when they called the Phils’ first half record against the East (17-25) the worst number of the year. It’s incredible how fast the Phils sank after the 12-1 homestand, including three series defeats at the hands of the Mets and Braves. The Mets series at CBP remains the biggest travesty of the season, in my opinion.

Don’t look now, but I’m about to write “don’t look now” again.

Don’t look now, but the Phils are back to third, 5.5 games out of first after picking up a series against the Nationals before the break, and now a 3-1 series against the hated Marlins.

Don’t look now, but the first-place Nats are struggling. They’re 3-7 over the last 10.

Vicente Padilla
“OK Vicente. You have one more shot to make this work, and this time we really, REALLY mean it.”

Like a cat with nine lives, Padilla has exhausted all of them, pitching ugly shutout ball his last outing to save his place in the rotation.

Yesterday, he followed up with his most complete start of the season, beating Dontrelle Willis of all people. Padilla helped his cause with a two-run triple off D-Train in the second inning. For that, Harry the K used his crazy voice.

It was vintage Padilla on the hill - five strikeouts, two walks and two hits over seven innings. His fastball had pop, and his breaking ball came in tight.

While Padilla seems to be turning the corner, D-Train is derailing. This is his second-straight bad outing. He has a history of running out of steam in the second half.

I’ll have a complete series recap later.

Farm report: The threshold of failure

The Class-A Clearwater Threshers open the second part of their season with a 4-17 record as the farm system continues to struggle.

It’s never too early to establish a winning culture, but in Clearwater, where prospects get down to business in the competitive Florida State League, players have experienced nothing but extreme failure the last two seasons.

The Threshers were trying to rebound from a 55-82 2004 campaign under the misguided Mike Schmidt managerial experiment, another in a long line of joke personnel decisions. They’re off to another bad start this second half with former Reading Phillies manager and player Greg Legg at the helm. For the season, Clearwater is now 22-68.

With so many levels of the organization comprised of high school talent or foreign amateurs, very few players come to the Phillies with a history of competing at a high level. Between Triple-A Scranton and Low-A Lakewood, the Phils farm system had a .464 winning percentage in 2004, in addition to short-season Batavia, with a record of 28-46 (.378).

It’s the same story this season. Double-A Reading (44-50) has been mired in the Eastern League cellar all year. Aside from homegrown talent like Michael Bourn and Chris Roberson, essentially the same type of slashing outfielder, the brightest moments have come from older players like Randy Ruiz and pitchers Allen Davis and Chris Rojas, all transplants from other organizations.

As for homegrown talent, Juan Richardson, thought to be the slugging future at third base, had a brutal start to the season and seldom plays his position anymore. Shortstop Danny Gonzalez, once praised for his hard work, was released before mid-season. Both Richardson and Gonzalez were ranked at one time by Baseball America.

The bulk of hyped talent resides in Clearwater this season, but the early results are less than impressive. Opponents are hitting .297 off Zach Segovia (2-9, 5.85). Segovia was a second-round choice in 2002 out of high school and missed all of last season with shoulder surgery. And Scott Mathieson, another high school draft pick and ranked by BA, is a mediocre 1-4 with a 4.16 ERA.

In short, the minor leagues are in turmoil once again, with a disturbing talent void in Double-A and troubling results from former top prospects, including Gavin Floyd, who has all the "tools" except the one that counts.
 

Aside from Ryan Howard and a couple of surprises among minor league free agents, there’s been little to celebrate down on the farm.

Talent isn't the issue, just as talent isn't the only issue with the big club. The minors suffer from too many high school picks, poor development and coaching decisions and a losing mentality that's plagued the organization for years.

Allen Davis: A southpaw in the rough?

While Gavin Floyd figures out how to pitch like a No. 2 prospect again, and Cole Hamels gets his feet wet in Double-A, keep your eye on left-hander Allen Davis, recently promoted from Reading to Scranton.

I’ve had my eye on the 29-year-old ever since the Phils plucked him from the independent leagues. Readers of this space know I'm a big, big fan of scouring the indie leagues for talent, and Davis looks like another success story. He was out of baseball in 2003, but pitched great for Ft. Worth of the indie leagues in 2004 (10-7, 3.38 ERA, 126 SO, 29 BB).

Davis earned his first win for Scranton last Friday, going seven innings, allowing one earned run and only one walk.

For Reading, he was 8-4 with a 3.43 ERA to go with 56 strikeouts and only 14 walks.

Smacks of diamond in the rough to me, the kind of pitcher that would give the Braves 10 patch-up wins. What a novel concept for the Phils. The question is, are the Phils savvy enough to ignore his age and mediocre history? Could replacing Randy Wolf be that simple?

Put on a happy, sad face for Hamels

If you’re in the Reading area Tuesday, July 21, be sure to pick up a copy of the Reading Eagle newspaper for our collectable Cole Hamels poster.

Hamels struck out eight in seven innings Thursday night, earning his first Double-A win since joining the team last week. If you haven’t made the trek to FirstEnergy Stadium, there’s no better time than now to check out the young left-hander because he may be on the move soon.

Here are my marketing-minded thoughts on Hamels you’ll see in Tuesday's paper:

2004: Sidelined for the first month of the season with left elbow tendinitis. Activated on May 17 and assigned to Clearwater (A). Made just four starts before shutting down for the remainder of the season with elbow soreness.

2003: Recipient of the Paul Owens Award for the best pitcher in the Phillies minor league system.

Buzz: Health is an issue, but there’s plenty of buzz surrounding this left-hander, including speculation he might see action with the big club later this season. Baseball America named Hamels the Phils’ top prospect in 2004. A big-time changeup and overall control should make his time in Reading minimal.

... and here are my Beerleaguer-minded thoughts, paraphrased from a report on his health in the 2005 Baseball Prospectus Annual:

• While playing pickup football sophomore year of high school, Hamels slammed into a parked pickup. Arm reported sore, but extent of injury unclear. Three weeks later, elbow snaps throwing a fastball, revealing broken humerus bone.
• Skipped junior season of high school
• Pitched well senior season, good enough for Phils to make him a first round pick.
• Phils cancel plans for Hamels to appear on US Olympic team, this time because of back spasms.
• April 7, 2004: Hamels undergoes MRI on his elbow and misses first month of season. Injury later found to be tendonitis.
• May 20 through June 4: Makes four starts for Clearwater.
• June 4 through rest of season: Misses next turn in rotation with inflamed elbow, later ruled separate and distinct from his tendonitis. He misses rest of season.
• 2005: Misses first part of season after breaking pitching hand in a bar-room brawl.

Getting down and dirty again

Last night, color man Larry Andersen said picking up a baseball and pitching after a long break felt like throwing a shot put. I know what he means.

I took a two-day break from Beerleaguer and now it feels like I’m writing a dissertation. I had grand plans of recapping the top 20 stories of the season over the break, ranging from Charlie Manuel starting Placido Polanco opening day to the emergence of John Marzano as an alternative voice of the Phils. It never happened.

After I penned my poorly-received team MVP piece, I scrapped those plans. I had been on a roll, but like a wide-eyed Gavin Floyd, my confidence is shot after Studes of Hardball Times called me out in my NL East pick, and an anonymous comment buried me for chosing Chase Utley over Bobby Abreu.

So back to something simple: game coverage.

The Phils were matched against my least favorite team in baseball, the Marlins, with retched filth like shortstop Alex Gonzalez, height-challenged catcher Paul Lo Duca and baby-faced wonder Miguel Cabrera, a 22-year-old stud who makes every team in baseball jealous. This one saw five homers after three innings and seven total in a soupy, soupy night.

When the long ball gets out of hand, I tend to lose interest, especially Paul LoDuca starts tagging them over the flower bed. After that, the most intriguing part of the game was L.A.’s discussion about the pitcher’s mound, how ruts, mud and height differences can make life hell for pitchers, especially coming in cold from the pen.

I love that stuff. I’ve been thinking about the differences between hockey and baseball since the NHL owners and players reached an agreement Wednesday.

The reason why you see more baseball writing, both professionally and among hobbyists, is the game lends itself better to observation. Both sports have excellent qualities. Hockey is fast paced. Baseball is calculating and ponderous. There’s enough time between pitches and innings to observe the dirt, just like last night.

L.A. is like a living metaphor for baseball. It's not the pacing I adore. It's the subtlety.

Game points
Before the season, I adopted the issue of the Marlins pitching staff not having the dexterity to last the season. That point was validated yesterday when the Marlins released veteran Al Leiter.

As for last night’s starter A.J. Burnett, the trend of low-inning starts continues, as his name keeps bubbling over the hot stove. In addition to Burnett, Josh Beckett is seeing time once again on the DL. I still believe the Phils will finish ahead of Florida in the standings.

The George S. Factor
The best reader comment of the year still belongs to George S. and his stats about David Bell and Mike Lieberthal hitting back-to-back in the lineup. Generally, George S. proved when Bell and Lieby are back-to-back, the offense is horrid (three or less runs a game, I believe), and with any other combination, they’re excellent.

Last night, Bell was out with back problems, Tomas Perez was in. 13-7 ballgame.

Another lineup decision saw Chase Utley batting third and Bobby Abreu hitting fourth. All I can say to that is 13-7 ballgame.

Lieberthal
I didn’t do first-half LVPs, but my pick would have been Lieberthal over Jim Thome since Thome has an injury excuse.

Lieberthal shocked everyone last night with a two-homer game, and the effort could be the result of adopting Bobby Abreu’s swing.

"I was trying to act like Bobby at the plate," Lieberthal told Mike Olshin of the Times. "Just a visualization of how he approaches things from pitch to pitch. He's special to watch. My problem is that I've really been jumping to the ball and pulling off. So if that's my problem, then Bobby is a great player to learn from. He's the opposite, really. He rarely pulls off or jumps at the ball."

Phillies first-half hardware: Team MVP

Chase Utley, 2B: How is it possible for a fierce defender of the Chase Utley / Placido Polanco platoon to name Utley Phillies MVP? And how could I pick him over Bobby Abreu, listed as a candidate for NL MVP?

It’s a compelling argument, but I’ll start with June 1, the second game of the homestand. Utley’s pinch grand slam against the Giants set off a chain reaction that couldn’t be stopped until the Seattle series. The Phils went 12-1 over the next two weeks, saved their season, and have milked the moment ever since.

“Star” is a subjective label. What is a star? My definition of a star differs from your definition and Howard Eskin's. In Abreu, I see star. In Utley, I see potential star. I’m not ready to crown him king of the clutch just yet, but the future heroics are looking bright.

By my measure, stars shine in big moments. When the Phils needed a hit this season, Utley delivered. Incredibly, he’s done all this in a situation that must feel like a rookie season. He’s finally full time at second after waiting his turn behind Polanco.

Making a smooth transition hasn’t been easy for the 25-year-old. A front office gaff brought Polanco back to Philadelphia in December, blocking the celebrated promotion of the former first-round pick.

Frustrated with an opening day decision to start the right-handed Polanco over Utley, fans vented their frustration at manager Charlie Manuel and Polanco, a tone that remains to this day.

Meanwhile, Utley was on the brighter side of controversy. When it was over, Polanco and Utley suffered through just two months of platooning before Polly was traded to Detroit for Ugueth Urbina, a move that wouldn’t have happened had Polanco been sitting on the bench all season. All told, the platoon was a success.

Through it all, Utley played brilliant baseball and currently ranks high among second basemen in all major categories. Hitting out of the slugging five at a position that’s one of the hardest to field, with Utley, there’s reason to hope beyond this season.

Line: .303 BA, .390 OBP, .504 SLG, 11 HR, 8 SB
Best game: July 1 vs. San Francisco. Pinch-hit grand slam.

Bobby Abreu, OF: Chase Utley may be MVP, but Bobby Abreu is still the best player. (Does that even make sense? Well, it does to me.)

It sounds like I’m turning this into a Joe Morgan vs. Bill James debate, but I’m not, nor do I have a strong conviction toward Utley. In fact, some fans go overboard with the hard-nosed play business.

This is a tough choice between two worthy candidates. However, if I had to guess … if you asked joe Phillies fan to close his eyes, forget fourth place, forget Howard Eskin, forget Hardball Times and think of one positive this half, most would say Utley, not Abreu. That’s what I’ve tried to do. I think of Utley, the positive vibe and the grand slam. Then I think of Abreu, his textbook swing and his patience and I'm glad we have him, too.

I compare it with the Orioles this season. Miguel Tejada may be MVP of the American League, but the O’s will tell you Brian Roberts deserves team MVP (I’ll take Joe Buck’s word for it from last night’s All-Star broadcast).

Phans know the numbers. Fantasy owners do, too. But those who watch game after game know the rub. The dramatic moments elude Abreu, no matter how much out-of-town broadcasters gush. It simply can’t be ignored. The season’s biggest on-field moment belongs to Utley, and after a scorching May-June, his numbers have leveled off into a typical Bobby year.

Line: .307 BA, 428 .OBP, .526 SLG, 18 HR, 67 BB, 21 SB, etc.
Best game: July 4 12-1 win at Pittsburgh. His three-run homer came at a critical moment, and he finished with a season-best 5 RBIs on the day.

Brett Myers, SP: The man that renewed our faith in Ed Wade’s golden pitching prospects, Myers lived up to his 12th pick overall status by adding pitches and improving his existing repertoire.

Early on, it was a cutter that locked up hitters, fashioned after the one Jon Lieber throws. Lately, it’s a devastating breaking pitch, in full force in his 8 1-3 innings against Atlanta on July 2. Please give this man some runs or he’ll skip town.

Line: 6-5, 3.20 ERA, 113 SO, 35 BB, 14 HR, .228 BAA
Best game: July 2 vs. Atlanta. Stopped them cold with 8 innings of shutout ball to go with nine strikeouts. Breaking ball devastating in this one.

Cory Lidle, SP: A feather in the cap of bloggers that said the best pitcher for Citizen’s Bank Park was one that kept the damn ball on the ground, Lidle has accomplished everything Jon Lieber was supposed to this season. Allowing just seven homers, he’s a model of consistency without flash, rewarded with the No. 2 spot in the rotation after the break. Often compared with Greg Maddux in his ability to think two pitches ahead, he and Myers could be frontline-caliber in half number two.

Line: 8-6, 3.65 ERA, 74 SO, 24 BB, 7 HR, .259 BAA
Best game: Plenty of candidates, including a May 22 complete game in Baltimore and an 11 strikeout game at Milwaukee May 11. But I’m going with his latest, eight innings and seven strikeouts of shutout ball against the Nationals on a hot July 9.

Pat Burrell, OF: The Bat was back, but in spurts. He and Derrek Lee shared the title of hottest hitters in baseball for a few weeks as Burrell earned player of the week honors twice, the first Phillie to do it since Von Hayes.

Since the 12-1 homestand, he’s reverted back to 2003 mode: visibly thinking too much, pulling off too much. His approach in April was to step in and hack, his stated plan back in Spring Training. Time to hack, Pat.

Line: .283 BA, .373 OBP, .498 SLG, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 87 SO, 42 BB
Best game: Bopped a big, go-ahead three-run homer against Milwaukee on June 11. Also had a big, five RBI game way back on April 9 against St. Louis. That was Gavin Floyd’s only win.

Stuck in the middle (in order): Kenny Lofton, Billy Wagner, Jimmy Rollins, Jon Lieber, Robinson Tejeda, Jason Michaels, Ryan Madson (last year’s first-half MVP), David Bell, Aaron Fultz, Randy Wolf.

Beerleaguer first-half hardware Part I

NL East MVP

Andruw Jones, ATL: Nobody did more to keep the Braves in contention in the face of critical injuries than this slugging center fielder, who was Beerleaguer's pick for NL MVP.

Jones widened his stance this offseason to increase power and the adjustment worked. He’s tied with Derek Lee for the NL lead in homers with 27. I was never a fan of Jones because his bat often went silent when the Braves needed it most, and he didn’t get on base consistently. This year his power and timely hitting makes up for those faults. The rest of his numbers, like OBP (.352) aren’t great, and he’s been cold lately, but this is a case where the advanced stats, like Win Shares, don’t tell the whole story. With the injury to Chipper Jones, Andruw has meant more to the Braves than Bobby Abreu has to the Phillies in Jim Thome’s absence, even though Abreu is on top of nearly all advanced categories for outfielders.

Runners up:
Chad Cordero, WAS: The best closer in baseball is the biggest reason why Washington sits atop the division. The Nats have been tough in close contests, and Cordero (1.13 ERA, 31 SV) has been nearly perfect in shutting down the opposition. He’s far ahead in relief Win Shares (10).

Dontrelle Willis, FLA: I couldn’t have been more wrong about D-Train (13-4, 2.39 ERA), calling him a circus act in my preseason predictions. Willis has a reputation of strong starts and weak finishes, and with the exception of his last outing (4 innings, 8 ER), he’s been pretty unstoppable and especially tough on the Phils (3-0, 0.82 ERA). He’s anchoring a rotation that’s banged up and predictably struggling with dexterity, with Josh Beckett seeing time once again on the DL and A.J. Burnett not going more than six innings most nights. The Marlins cannot afford for Willis to go south.

Bobby Abreu, PHI: The winner of last night’s Home Run Derby is a stat machine, leading nearly all fantasy-friendly categories including hitting (.307), HRs (18), and SB (21). Abreu would be higher on the list were it not for a recent funk and failure to deliver in big moments, a stigma that puts him at odds with some fans. Still, his run production is hard to replicate and it’s difficult to imagine where the Phils runs would come from without Bobby.

Nick Johnson, WAS: A real moneyball-type player this season (.322 BA, .444 OBP), Johnson is having a breakout year and is expected to come off the DL after the break. If Washington’s hitters get hot around Johnson, they could score many more runs than their league-worst 4.0 a game.

Cliff Floyd, NYM: A candidate for comeback player of the year, Floyd was basically the entire Mets offense the first half and didn’t even earn a replacement nod as All-Star.

NL East all-unheralded:

Brian Schneider, WAS: The Northampton, Pa. native has emerged as the best catcher in the division, a real throwback to when backstops were measured by defense and the ability to handle pitching. He’s third in all of baseball in Win Shares, and first in defensive Win Shares. More importantly, look at the fine seasons pitchers John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Esteban Loaiza and Chad Cordero are having. On paper, this was a below-average staff before the season.

Todd Jones, FLA: Former Phillie, Sporting News columnist and relief pitcher Todd Jones (1.42 ERA, 13 SV) patched up a potential bullpen disaster in Florida when the Guillermo Mota experiment failed. First lesson learned: You can’t make a closer out of just anybody. Second lesson: You can make a closer out of just about anybody.

Wilson Betemit, ATL: How about this Chipper replacement, who’s not even the best third base prospect in Atlanta’s system. Year after year, Atlanta plucks bodies from the minors to fill holes. Last year it was Charles Thomas. This year it’s Betemit, tenth in the NL in 3B VORP (12.4). His regular line: .300 BA, .363 OBP, .507 SLG. One more reason why Atlanta is baseball’s model organization.

Robinson Tejeda, PHI: Just as Jones stopped a sinking ship in Florida’s bullpen, Tejeda (1-2, 2.93 ERA) kept the Phils afloat after Randy Wolf went on the DL with season-ending Tommy John surgery. Never spectacular in the minors, Tejeda is proof to Ed Wade that it’s possible to win with young talent instead of paying a high price for replacements. Tejeda will need to work on his control and lasso in his rising walk totals.

Roberto Hernandez, NYM: Conventional wisdom states that players get better when they leave the Phillies. And it’s true. If Jose Mesa wasn’t proof enough, than Hernandez is the icing on the cake. He’s been the Mets best reliever (1.69 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), joining Todd Jones, Cliff Politte and Mesa as former Phillies relievers finding massive success outside Philadelphia.

Thanks
Special thanks to Philadelphia Inquirer blogger Daniel Rubin for sending some new traffic my way this morning. For new readers, stop by often for my daily rant on the Phils. For returning readers, check out Daniel's wonderful blog, Blinq, which can be accessed from my sidebar links under "Local."

Coach Ramon Henderson: Worst pitcher ever

Phillies outfielder Bobby Abreu slammed a record-breaking 41 home runs, including a 517-foot shot, the second-longest in derby history, winning the CENTURY 21 Home Run Derby Monday night at Comerica Park in Detroit. 

Representing Venezuela in the new international format, Abreu's astonishing display wasted virtually all the previous marks, including a record-shattering 24 homers in the first round alone. Receiving inside meatballs from Phils’ bullpen coach Ramon Henderson, who earns the title as worst pitcher ever, Abreu’s first round lasted about 30 minutes.

Bobby’s fifth homer set a Comerica Park record for distance.

"Bobby is a very proud man, and he loves to represent Venezuela," Rollins told mlb.com. "He only wants to be the best, and wants to see Venezuela first in everything.”

MLB.com has the story this morning, as does ESPN’s Jayson Stark, including a breakdown of Abreu’s record-breaking night.

Bullpen outstanding in 12-inning victory

Some guy made the game winning hit in the 12th inning, as the Phils win the game 5-4, and their first series in eight tries. Credit the bullpen for one of the finer efforts this season. (AP photo)

Ramon Martinez is his name. Second-string utility is his game. He knocked in David Bell from third with the bases loaded, two outs, just before he ran out of time to catch a flight to Puerto Rico, the AP reported.

The story of the game: the Phils bullpen outlasting Washington’s very good pen in a close contest. Washington had been winning virtually all of their close games, while the Phils have been inept in that category.

Sitting back and watching the extra sets unfold, it put the state of the Phils in perspective a little more before the All-Star break. What it said to me was that our bullpen is the strength of the team, just as most Phans thought it would be at this stage of the season. There’s absolutely no need to deal for relief pitching.

Ugueth Urbina’s 9th inning and Billy Wagner’s 10th was some of the best pitching I’ve seen all season, especially Urbina. Coming to the Phils with a reputation as a flyball hitter who allowed a high amount of home runs, he also carried a reputation as a smart pitcher that can outfox hitters with his location and speed.

The Nats had no clue against Urbina yesterday, who struck out the last batter he faced with a dramatic pump of his fist. His stuff was unhittable in its location.

I’ve always enjoyed a little pomp in my relief pitching, and Urbina is one confident fellow. He’s not ideal for the Bank, but there’s no question he’ll help tremendously if they stay in the hunt.

Even Rheal Cormier, who I’m not high on, pitched two decent sets to earn the win.

As for Washington, as soon as the Phils got past closer Chad Cordero, I knew they couldn’t outlast the Phils bullpen. There isn’t anyone in the Nats’ lineup that scares me. I can’t see this team staying atop the NL East, as my gut keeps telling me Atlanta will win it.

Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell and Chase Utley
Have all been slumping to varying degrees, but none more so than Pat Burrell, who's done absolutely nothing since the Homestand. Burrell looks downright 2003-ish and basically struck out the entire series. It's time to reopen my case files.

The People vs. Pat Burrell.

All rise.

In hindsight (between the time it took to write this post at 6:30 a.m. to 9 a.m.), I'll wait until after the break to open up the books. A break will do the Bat good.

I also forgot to note two great games by Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, who was especially swift on the bases yesterday. As for Howard, kiss the minor leagues goodbye, big fella.

Take me out to the kiosks

There are 184 million kiosks at Citizens Bank Park.

One of them is occupied by a childhood idol, Bruce Blitz, a cartoonist whose “How to Draw Cartoons” video is something I watched a hundred times as a kid. Blitz was manning one of several Blitz caricature kiosks at CBP yesterday, and I had to stop and meet him.

“This is going to sound weird,” I said, “But I basically learned how to draw cartoons by watching your tape.”

Showing disbelief, I said “Here, I’ll show you,” grabbed his pen and tablet, and sketched a spot-on replica of a typical Blitz cartoon.

Stunned, he asked how old I was and what I do for a living. I told him I was a writer and a designer at the Reading Eagle newspaper and used to be an editorial cartoonist for Penn State’s Daily Collegian newspaper. I think he was pretty touched, and somewhat creeped out.

The only reason I spotted him was because I spent the first two innings exploring the park. I bought a cheap seat, which turned out to be in the first row behind the flower box in left, because I wasn’t sure a better seat behind the Nats dugout would surface from a family connection. Later on, it did, and I was in row seven, sitting right next to Kenny Lofton’s brother and his family. In true Beerleaguer form, Miller Light in hand, I said “You’re Kenny Lofton’s brother, right?” He said yeah. I said “Tell your brother to tell Jimmy Rollins to follow his example and get his butt on base a little more.” He laughed.

I saw about 90 percent of the concourse during my journey, passing an unbelievable amount of kiosks. No matter what is said about the dwindling attendance, they’re raking it in with all those concessions and souvenirs.

The kiosks inadvertently create two traffic lanes, the main flow in front, but also a small artery in back of them. If you’re not paying attention, you could find yourself in a jam-up in the smaller lane for no reason.

I give the stadium mostly positive marks because of excellent seating and the number of bathrooms.

The shortcomings include how foot traffic moves inside the park and how certain attractions are hidden. At times, there’s no rhyme or reason to anything, and I wonder why things like the nice glass-enclosed elevator that links levels one and two isn’t in an accessible spot. I rode solo twice, and I wonder if people think it’s an elevator to the executive offices or something. They're nice inside, and have a small TV to watch the action.

The regular flow of traffic causes one to miss Bull’s BBQ in right, which was a graveyard when I stopped for my beef sandwich with horsy. It wasn’t great by any means, and I've heard mostly bad reviews of the stuff. I was also surprised there weren’t more people waiting for Peace of Pizza, which was my favorite sustenance at Penn State. Ashburn Alley is a good place to hang out for about an inning or before the game because you feel a little detached from the action.

After a half inning in my paid spot in back of the flowers, I sat down in my upgraded seat behind the Nats dugout. I saw pitcher John Patterson’s confused look into the dugout when they had him bat in the eighth, and the great at bats by Bobby Abreu, Chase Utley and David Bell in the ninth.

For the season, I’m 2-0 at CBP, with two wins credited to the dependable Cory Lidle, brilliant again yesterday.

Today
Call it a hunch. I have a feeling Jon Lieber is going to pitch a great game

Saturday morning bullets

Bulleted points on Friday night’s 8-7 loss, Mike Lieberthal collecting his paycheck, eating Jim Thome’s salary and exploring the possibility the Phils are cursed.

The setup: It’s always good Beerleaguer fodder when I get together with my stepfather, Martin, and consume mass quantities of alcohol. No Phillies or fantasy baseball stone went unturned. Just ask my wife and mother, both of whom spent hours listening to us debate important issues, such as Ryan Freel vs. Rickie Weeks.

The night brought back memories. I remember my grandfather would invite his buddies to the house for Friday night cards, and the women would quietly escape into the formal living room and talk about their kids. Back in the dining room, Pappy and his Pennsylvania Dutch posse yucked it up for hours, chomping pretzels, slinging penny anties across the table, talking Phillies and drinking Genesee straight from the bottle. Eventually, my grandmother would reemerge and feed them pie and ice cream.

Pappy, if you’re spot in heaven has Internet access, I’m happy to report the tradition lives on. At some point in the evening, my wife and mom disappeared into the living room to escape the sounds of “Dancy! You p*ckerhead!”

Enough with the ruminations. On to bulleted points.

• I didn’t see the article, but Reading Eagle beat writer Phil Gianficaro apparently made a brilliant point about Mike Lieberthal in his midseason report card. Earning a “D,” Gianficaro said Lieberthal was bored. From my limited access, I see a guy that’s lost the edge as well. Every so often, you hear a scathing report of how brutal Lieberthal is at handling pitchers. John Marzano, doing the postgame Thursday night on Comcast, basically blamed the entire loss on Lieberthal for not urging Brett Myers to come over the plate. Myers was shrugging off pitches all night, resulting in one of his worst outings of the season.

• If it takes eating Jim Thome’s salary, Albert Belle style, just to make Ryan Howard the starting first baseman next season, pass the gravy, Phillies owners, and enjoy some delicious salary. Two big doubles last night, a near game-tying home run, going opposite field against a left-hander Thursday night, and a .371 BA in AAA before the call-up. Howard can become one hell of a hitter.

• L’il Endy Chavez out tripled Marlon Byrd last night in pinch hit opportunities. Chavez reached easily, while Byrd, looking a little meaty in the hindquarters, was tagged out trying to stretch a three-bagger.

• The fact that former Phillie John Mabry is having a good season for St. Louis further strengthens the theory the organization may actually have a curse. Remember: It’s not just the A-list deals like Eric Milton or Kevin Millwood that were originally considered sure bets. Remember Jeremy Giambi for Mabry and what a steal that was going to be? Today, Mabry is playing a key role for St. Louis, while Giambi is playing for a slow-pitch softball league somewhere.

• I wonder if it’s possible to throw a baseball over left field from home plate. Maybe a hard thrower like Jose Guillen can try it since he’s in town.

All-Star talk and Nationals primer

Two thoughts crossed my mind when I heard Jimmy Rollins was named as an All-Star replacement.

First, disappointment, because it will send a message to J-Roll and the Phils that his approach to hitting is just fine. If that makes me a bad Phan for jeering this choice, so be it. Chase Utley, Brett Myers, Pat Burrell, Cory Lidle and even Kenny Lofton, in that order, would get my nod over Jimmy as far as the Phils go. Crunching the advanced stats, Utley has a legit gripe. Second base is a tough call, however, with Marcus Giles and Craig Counsell each worthy of bids. I question Luis Castillo and his shallow .330 BA, but his defense smokes Utley.

As for my second thought on the J-Roll bid, what does Cliff Floyd have to do to earn some respect?

This was a spot where Tony LaRussa should have rewarded the best player instead of adding another lukewarm body at NL shortstop. Floyd should be starting the All-Star game anyway. He’s been hot almost the entire first half. Back in April, he and Derek Lee shared the title of hottest players on the planet, and for the season, his production numbers are comparable to Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez and others.

All-Star disappointment is nothing new to the 34-year-old. A few seasons ago, Bobby Valentine, managing the National League team, omitted the Florida Marlin from the roster despite a red-hot first half. At the break, he was batting .342 with 21 homers and 70 RBIs.

As of Friday, he’s batting .289 with 21 homers and 53 RBIs.

Instead, teammates Mike Piazza and Carlos Beltran are starting for the NL on reputation only. Piazza’s decline is well-known, and Beltran has been a high-priced bust so far.

As for Billy Wagner, he deserves it ... to a point. He’s pitched a ton of low-pressure situations this season, with the last tough outing resulting in a blown save against Atlanta. Like I stated earlier, he’s been good not great in my opinion, but this All-Star nod should increase his market value.

I’d like to see more pitchers like Jesse Crain, Chris Hammond or former Phil Cliff Politte make it. As for the position players, I was also pulling for Northampton, Pa. native Brian Schneider of Washington, who’s probably the best pound-for-pound catcher in the National League. I can’t stand Paul LoDuca.

Washington series
The Phils get to take a shot at the Nats just as they’re on the ropes. I hoped to write something detailed on the Nationals earlier in the week, deciding whether or not they’re for real. They’re 30-12 in situations described as close (Hardball Times), with their best player, by far, closer Chad Cordero. He could earn votes for Cy Young and is without question the best reliever in baseball.

Here's where the teams stand in the NL East:

Washington: 51-34
Atlanta: 47-37
Florida: 43-39
New York Mets: 43-42
Philadelphia: 43-43


Pythagorean win-loss (as of yesterday):

Atlanta: 51-33
Florida: 44-38
New York Mets: 43-42
Philadelphia: 42-43
Washington: 42-43

Browsing the numbers, I have a hunch they’ll crumble in the second half. Their offense doesn’t score many runs, and pitchers like Ryan Drese and Esteban Loazia will get exposed, just as they did in the American League. Washington simply doesn't have the horses.

Atlanta does.

Phils-Pirates series recap: Vintage Phillies

The microcosm of the Phillies universe can be whittled down to a single series in Pittsburgh.

Win one. Lose one. Win one. Lose one. A .500 effort from a .500 ballclub. The series saw the token game with more runs than they needed, battering the Bucs 12-1 in the opener. They built on that momentum next game by beating out a whole four hits against Kippy Wells, losing 3-0 on Tuesday. Wednesday night is what I would call a “normal effort” offensively, waiting until the seventh inning to really get anything going, winning 5-0 thanks to solid pitching from Vicente Padilla and company (the token abnormality. Note Robinson Tejeda did not pitch this series).

That brings us to last night, when the only thing missing to complete the sphere of wonder was the heartless game when they stranded a ton of men on base. The final: 2-1, letting this truly winnable series slip away, weenie style.

That’s 18 runs by my count, an average of 4.5 per game, on par with their season average of 4.66. By that measure, they have a pretty good offense based on league standards.

Next time you read or hear that stat to justify the quality of this offense, tell that person to take his stat and shove it.

A marginally entertaining combo shutout

Vicente Padilla threw six innings of shutout ball, as the Phils beat the Pirates 5-0. Ryan Madson, Ugueth Urbina and Billy Wagner all chipped in with shutout sets.

Two hours and 34 minutes of Phillies-Pirates magic
Even lunatic hobbyists can only take so much sobering baseball. The Phlogosphere has been quiet lately, reflecting the blah mood of Phillies nation. Even my blog host, Typepad, is crapping out. If you've noticed a few differences in Beerleaguer's design and paragraph spacing, that's why.

Sitting on my sofa tonight, accepting my dose of America’s favorite pastime, I kept thinking of the past 11 seasons. Three years shy of half my lifetime. That’s how long I’ve watched Mike Lieberthal and his little red helmet go from being a pretty good hitter to an insufferable one.

He delivered the first hit of the night, but I'm going to speak my peace anyway. I’ll be glad when the Lieberthal era ends, for the same reason I’m ready to trade in my ’96 Cavalier. I’m not as harsh on the veteran backstop as most fans, just as I’m mostly OK with my emasculating car. The role of catcher in the offense has been overrated since Mike Piazza's breakout season. In the clutch, he’s as fragile as glass, just as my car rattles like hell when it exceeds 80 mph. Lieby is kind of like a Cavalier, but with a $399 monthly payment.

This game was hyped as Vicente Padilla’s must-win … again. His ERA was close to 7.00 entering the game, and his return to the rotation caught me by surprise. Why? Good question. I should come to expect such decisions.

He faced Mark Redman, who in past seasons represented the type of left-hander the Phils struggled against. That hasn’t been the case this season. The Phils are batting .287 against lefties to go with a pretty good .804 OPS. Entering the game, however, the lineup was a lifetime .156 against Redman, and didn’t get a hit until the third inning.

The formerly dominant Vicente Padilla
Padilla will get more credit than he deserves for this win, but he still earns credit for a good performance. He looked solid through the first three, in large because the Pirates were swinging at everything. Aside from a Jack Wilson double, there were no dreaded base runners, and Padilla worked fast and efficiently, zipping fastballs to the plate at 95 mph. For the first time this season, he appeared to have a plan.

Then Tike Redman doubled to lead off the fourth and Jason Bay walked, and one got a sense Padilla was becoming unglued. This is a spot where a good catcher would settle down the pitcher, but Lieberthal stayed behind the plate. A weird little inning saw a run-on-contact out, a past ball charged to Lieberthal, but no damage, and Padilla got out of it.

The fifth inning sums up the Padilla legacy. He gave up a leadoff walk to David Ross, but got Rob Mackowiak to hit into a double play. Two outs. Then he walked the pitcher Redman. Then Matt Lawton doubled down the third base line. Trouble. Tike Redman flies out to end the threat.

Leaving after six innings, Padilla escaped three of them by the skin of his ass. Overall, it was still his best game of the season, but he still hasn’t lasted over six sets.

The Phillies offense
Both teams made it easy on the opposing pitchers, swinging early and often. This was a fast game through six until the Phils busted it open in the seventh.

The four-run inning can be credited to patient at bats by Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. They both drew a couple very good walks against the left-hander Redman.

Walks are not always byproducts. In certain situations, like when a double play is in effect, or when a hitter might be overmatched, or when the pitcher is struggling, players should work the count. Two of those walks turned into runs in the seventh inning when Utley and Howard walked and scored.

That’s about all the game coverage I can stand tonight. The Phils win 5-0. On to random musings.

L’il Endy
I’m probably the only fan still OK with the L’il Endy Chavez/ Marlon Byrd trade. The Phils got what they paid for because Byrd stinks, too. Byrd’s average is down around .250, his OPS is something like .607, and he has as many homers as Chavez: none. Between them, they have one stolen base. It’s worse for Byrd because he plays over twice as much.

Problem for problem. At least the Phils got speed and versatile defense off the bench. Then again, it’s hard to say.

Ryan Madson
Based on how he’s used lately, Ryan Madson must feel lost. He pitched again tonight after a rough appearance Tuesday.

Here’s a recap of his season. He started as long relief, replaced Tim Worrell as the setup man, then moved back a spot to make room for Ugueth Urbina, and lately he’s been hearing rumors he’d replace Padilla in the rotation.

This has to be a frustrating time for Mad Dog, who’s basically floating around the pen willy-nilly under the guise of a 7th-inning man.

Old City Blues

I told Stu, the Reading Eagle security guard and life-long Pirates fan, not to sweat it after the Phils clobbered Pittsburgh 12-1 to open this series. "They’ll probably get shut out next game," I said. "That’s how things go with the Phillies."

And sure enough.

I was down in Old City last night about a block from where Jason Michaels decked a cop. It was the closest I got to Phils action, so I can only comment on the box.

The first four hitters went 0-14. Jon Lieber left after one inning after taking a liner off his elbow. And there you have it.

So you be my eyes this morning. What did you see? Jimmy Rollins remains the leadoff hitter for some reason. How did he do? Hackity-hack-hack-hack from the looks of it. Out of the pen, Ryan Madson had a rough outing. That’s not good, especially since he’s the leading candidate to replace Vicente Padilla in the rotation.

Phillies organizational report

Bobby’s big hit
Big hits don’t just happen in the late innings. Bobby Abreu proved that yesterday afternoon.

The Phils clobbered the Pirates 12-1, but at the time of Abreu’s clutch two-out, third-inning grand slam, they really needed it. Down 1-0, it was shaping up to be one of those games when nobody steps up. Abreu’s salami sent the Buccos into a tailspin, and it was easy sailing from there.

Abreu has been trying to shed criticism that he’s a good numbers player that doesn’t come through in clutch situations.

Credit Bobby for yesterday’s win, along with starting pitcher Cory Lidle. It was his second seven-inning game in as many tries, and the 11th start in which he didn’t allow a home run.

Bill Conlin’s July 5 column
I’m probably the world’s biggest Carlos Ruiz fan, but I scratch my head at this latest tidbit from Daily News columnist Bill Conlin:

Some people are starting to push for the Phillies to call up Scranton/Wilkes-Barre catcher Carlos Ruiz (Mike Lieberthal is in the middle of a horrid slump and now hitting .232). To replace whom? Mike Lieberthal is healthy and makes lots of guaranteed money. Todd Pratt is one of the league's best backups. Besides, they have the wrong Ruiz. Mammoth Randy Ruiz, a slow-footed career journeyman and designated hitter type, is tearing up the Eastern League for Reading. Carlos Ruiz, a 5-10, 180-pound catcher for the Red Barons, is hitting about .280 with two homers. Good thinking, though...

For those that haven’t followed the Randy Ruiz story here in Reading, the 27-year-old slugger is putting up numbers that mirror Ryan Howard last season. In 69 games, he’s batting .361, with 20 HR, 69 RBI along with a .677 SLG and .409 OBP. There are two significant issues blocking his progress, however.

Rub No. 1: He doesn’t have a position.

Rub No. 2: He’s been suspended twice for violating the league’s banned substance policy.

Ruiz served a fifteen game suspension at the beginning of this season and is facing a 30 game suspension for a second infraction. He is currently appealing the latest test result.

In addition to Ruiz, Josh Carter, an outfielder in Clearwater, and Kyle Allen, a pitcher in Lakewood, have allegedly tested positive for banned substances in the Phillies organization.

As for Carlos Ruiz, known as Chooch by teammates, Conlin’s right. He’s exactly where he should be, learning how to play in Triple-A Scranton. The low home run total Conlin mentioned can be partially blamed on missing significant time with a broken leg, suffered in a home-plate collision with Mike Kinkade. Ruiz is 26, but is still new to the game of baseball, making his professional debut at age 20.

Cole Hamels promoted to Double-A
Left-handed pitcher Cole Hamels is expected to start for the Reading Phillies tomorrow against the Akron Aeros. The 21-year-old is the third best organizational prospect according to Baseball America. It marks his AA debut.

Hamels was 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts for Clearwater (A) in the Florida State League. In 16 innings the 21-year old allowed seven hits, five runs, four earned, walked seven and struck out 18. He entered this season with a 7-3 record and a 1.31 ERA in 22 professional starts (117.0 IP/171 SO).

David Bell vs. LHP
Bell is batting .442 against left-handers this season, which leads all of baseball. That includes nine doubles and two home runs, good enough for a .636 SLG. I was oblivious to this stat until Larry Andersen mentioned it yesterday during the broadcast.

Answering reader e-mail, J-Mike and the law

Kaliph asks: Is it too late this year? I'm dreading Wade dealing away Howard for some starting pitcher who won't be able to single handily will the Phillies into the playoffs, let alone the World Series.

I think the firesale should begin in an effort to replenish our minor league system after being decimated by Wade in recent years with little to show for it. It's terribly sad that they don't even have an arm to replace Padilla.

J. Weitzel: Thanks for the question. Buyers or sellers has become the big question lately.

Here’s a concept the Phillies front office cannot grasp. Just because you deal away a veteran doesn’t mean you’re in "sell" mode.

Every team must fortify their future and cut cost somewhere, and it rarely hurts. One look around the rest of the league finds plenty of teams winning with young talent (Twins) or veterans on the cheap (Nationals), while older teams like the Phillies, Mets, Yankees and Giants, holding albatross contracts, are paying big money for very little production.

The Phils should seize any opportunity to get younger, and the easiest way is to keep existing prospects. The latest rumor says the Phils owners do not want Ed Wade to trade Ryan Howard, and I applaud that. Players like Howard and Chase Utley are future of this franchise, plus, they’re attractions on a team that’s grown too stale.

It seems fans are clamoring for more young guys: Howard, Madson, Utley. Personally, I’m more likely to buy a ticket now to see Utley and Howard than Polanco and Thome two months ago, and in my experience reading other sites and comments from fans, I’m not alone.

There’s no question, however, the Phils need pitching and won’t make the playoffs or get very far in the post season with the existing options. In light of their long-term contract situations, it’s time to bite the bullet and patch those holes with young players. I get the sense most fans do not wish to mortgage the future. That means Gavin Floyd, Madson, Robinson Tejeda or even Cole Hamels are all better options than Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, etc.

It might be the long-term deal to Jimmy Rollins that finally tipped the scale. The team can no longer afford to add costly veterans.

Jason Michaels and the law
From an e-mail I received this morning from Beerleaguer reader Tom W., outfielder Jason Michaels should go to jail for assaulting a cop Saturday night. Along with Tom, I’m sick of athletes getting free passes. Sunday night’s incident outside a Philadelphia night club sounds like a bad case of beer muscles, but that’s no excuse.

The rest of us plain clothes would see real jail time for punching a police officer, and so should J-Mike. A cop's job is hard enough. They don't need hassle from privileged athletes.

No fireworks

I’m supposed to be off until tomorrow, but I can’t resist writing about last night’s backbreaking prime time loss to Atlanta.

A series win against the Braves is just what the team needed to get it going. Instead, the nation got to see the Phils helpless offense and hapless bullpen, losing 4-3 in a game broadcast on ESPN.

The Braves won the series 2-1 as the Phils dropped to .500 on the season, 9.5 games in back of the never-lose Nationals, and four games back of the wild card-leading Braves.

The offense was inept once again, banging out a whole three hits against Jorge Sosa and company. All three of their runs came on one hit, a three-run homer by Ryan Howard in the fourth inning.

The Braves answered back with two runs in the seventh charged to Rheal Cormier, one in the eighth given up by Ugueth Urbina—who was booed mercilessly—and the game winner in the ninth off Billy Wagner. Ryan Langerhans tripled off Wagner to lead off the frame, scoring the eventual game winner on a sac fly by Wilson Betemit.

The bullpen blew the game for Robinson Tejeda, who shut down the Braves over six innings. He benefited from a lot of luck in the first two sets, getting inning-ending double plays to end scoring threats. After the rocky start en route to a five-walk night, he settled in, earning five strikeouts.

On the other side, I was impressed with right-hander Sosa, who’s inside breaking pitch was tough on Chase Utley and Kenny Lofton.

The offensive black hole of David Bell and Mike Lieberthal, hitting seventh and eighth, went 1-8, including another rally-killing out by Bell with runners in scoring position. Bell, Lieberthal, the pitcher’s spot and Jimmy Rollins is like cruise control for opposing pitchers.

From my vantage point, watching the game on crystal-clear high definition, only two players looked comfortable, Tejeda and Howard, both rookies.

Playing manager
Two changes that must happen right away: Jimmy Rollins and his .310 OBP must be vanquished from the leadoff spot. Kenny Lofton, Jason Michaels and Chase Utley represent better choices. I’d bat Rollins seventh to split up the right-right impotence of Bell and Lieberthal when facing right-handers.

This afternoon in Pittsburgh they face junkball left-hander Dave Williams, a native of Anchorage, Alaska. So in this situation, I’d leadoff with J-Mike and his much better .408 OBP.

For those that haven’t read, J-Mike was arrested Saturday night for punching a cop outside a nightclub. He was released yesterday morning.

In terms of pitching, Cormier must be dropped from tight situations, with left-hander Aaron Fultz seeing more action late in games. In his last two appearances, Cormier has allowed six earned runs, while Fultz has allowed only 11 all season.

Beerleager will return July 5

While Typepad, my hosting service, makes some tech. changes, I'll use the opportunity to take a break until Tuesday, July 5.

Until then, go Phils.

Smolz topples Phils; Thome to DL

The Phillies drop to last place in the NL East after losing a game they had almost no shot to win, falling to the Braves 9-1 last night.

John Smoltz (9-5, 2.68 ERA) said afterward he didn’t have his greatest stuff, going six innings, allowing five hits and one earned run. But the effort was plenty to beat Vicente Padilla (3-8, 6.96 ERA), who probably pitched himself out of the starting rotation, lasting just four innings, giving up nine hits, two walks and a home run for a total of four earned runs.

I said earlier in the week that if Padilla struggled in this start, and Gavin Floyd pitched well his next start in Scranton, the Phils should recall the 22-year-old right-hander and send Padilla to the pen. Last night, Floyd went six innings, allowing six hits, three earned runs while striking out six for the Red Barons. In his previous start, Floyd went eight innings, allowing two earned runs and six strikeouts.

Ed Wade indicated he’d like to see Floyd make another start before considering it. Indeed, Floyd has struggled since his brief call-up in April, but has straightened it out lately. Scouts have pointed to a loss of command in his fastball and decreased potency of his breaking pitch.

Many believed Floyd would be a staple in the rotation at this point in the season, and boy could they use his services. Instead of dealing for a high-priced arm, the ideal solution is to turn to your farm system, just as the Braves, Twins and A’s have done for years and years with great success.

As for Padilla, he hasn’t been the same all season, and I doubt we’ll ever see the same pitcher that was good enough to be an all-star in 2002.

"He's probably very frustrated," catcher Mike Lieberthal said to mlb.com. "I don't know how healthy he is, but his location and his velocity didn't seem like it was there tonight. He's been such a dominant pitcher before, so everybody is waiting for him to get his stuff back."

If Padilla is replaced, it’s likely Ryan Madson will get the call, with Tim Worrell, recently cleared from the DL, taking his spot in the bullpen.

In any event, plenty of pitcher shuffling is bound to occur these next few days as the Phils scramble to stop this sinking ship. A trade is far from out of the question, but holding on to young players such as Floyd and Ryan Howard is highly advisable.

They’re 8.5 out of first, not insurmountable by any means, but history clearly isn’t on their side.

Abreu and Burrell
You can’t win without scoring runs, and the team’s leading RBI men, Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell, are struggling to get it done, a trend that’s continued since the 12-1 home stand. In particular, Burrell has looked downright 2003-ish since the Mariners series, and struck out four times last night in going 0-4.

After an all-star worthy first half, the Bat’s OPS is down to about .890. He’ll hope to get it going today at Citizen’s Bank Park, where his OPS is .300 points higher than it is on the road. (1.035 to .736).

Jim Thome to the DL
And this team wonders why fans get pissed.

The team placed Jim Thome on the 15-day DL yesterday for elbow tendonitis, a problem that existed for at least a month.

The struggling first baseman received a cortisone shot a few weeks ago that provided temporary relief, but he took a turn for the worse 10 days ago, he said.

In those 10 games, the team has played itself out of contention, thanks in large to a). starting pitching, b). Jim Thome. According to Thome, the pain has been severe.

"I had a hard time picking my arm up today," said Thome Friday. "It hurt that bad. I've had good and bad days. It's affected my throwing, but gradually started to get into my hitting."

While Thome and the team expected elbow tendonitis to just—poof—clear up, a 100 percent healthy replacement was brutalizing pitchers in Scranton. Howard was called up yesterday afternoon by didn’t arrive in Philadelphia until midway through the game.

Here’s my take: It’s hard enough watching Thome strikeout or hit into the shift every at bat, but when he refuses to say enough’s enough, knowing Howard is ready and waiting, I take major issue as a fan, and you should, too. Thome’s been advertised as this great team professional, but it’s hard to see it with this selfish choice.

Once again, Thome must be held accountable, and I’m tired of writing it again and again. Some of the onus also falls on Charlie Manuel for letting this go on far too long.

To put it bluntly, signing Thome is turning into one of the worst decisions the Phils ever made. He’s one dimensional, expensive, old, and now nursing multiple injuries that could cripple the rest of his career.

Philebrity

Big love to Philebrity, Philadelphia's leading media and gossip blog for sending a ton of new traffic my way this afternoon. For Phillies fans, be sure to stop by often for my daily rant about our team. As always, reader opinion is strongly encouraged.

Phillies retrospective: Carlos Silva

The trade of Phillies catcher Johnny Estrada for Atlanta pitcher Kevin Millwood is largely considered the most unexpected trade backfire in years, but a strong case can also be made for pitcher Carlos Silva and infielder Nick Punto going to Minnesota for high-priced left-hander Eric Milton.

2004: To the naked eye, Milton had a pretty good season for the Phils, including a 14-6 record and a near no-hitter against the Giants on July 25. But in Silva, the Twins received just as much quality at a fraction of the cost.

The budget-crunched Twins discovered a solid No. 3 starter in Silva, who started just one game the previous two seasons in Philadelphia. In his first season in Minnesota, he went 14-8 with a 4.21 ERA, even lower than Milton’s 4.75. The most impressive comparison is Silva allowed 20 fewer HRs than Milton (23 to 43), and surrendered only 35 walks to Milton’s 75.

Silva represents the bargain gem Twins scouts discover year after year. As for the other throw-in, Punto, another former R-Phil, the Twins received a serviceable, starting second baseman.

2005: The Twins are baseball’s miracle franchise, perennial playoff contenders operating on a shoestring budget and fielding few superstars. In terms of pitching, they’re especially stingy with their walks, but Silva is downright ridiculous about it. As of Friday, he had more wins than walks, which is almost unbelievable (6-3 after 14 starts, five walks, 3.55 ERA).

2001 in Reading: Never dominant, but always steady, Silva was a horse in Reading, finishing second in the Eastern League in innings pitched with 180. For the season, he went 15-8 with a 3.90 ERA, establishing his reputation as a pitcher that surrendered few walks, allowing just 27 on the season, an incredible feat for the young minor leaguer.

Ed Wade's decision to trade him: For some reason, the Phils, in their infinite wisdom, were concerned he didn’t have the tools to be a starter because of he lacked a breaking pitch. With foresight 20/20, his heavy sinker, changeup and economy of walks would have been just what the doctor ordered for Citizen’s Bank Park. The Twins scouts knew it, grabbed him cheap, and converted him a starter outright.

As for Milton, the Reds--perhaps the only franchise with worse scouting than the Phils--are paying the price big time for all those home runs, already surrendering 27. For the season, he’s 3-9 with a 7.70 ERA. There are rumors the team will eat contract just to get him the hell out of Great American Ball Park.

Friday morning thoughts

Quick, quick post this morning, and later on I’ll have another prospect retrospective on Carlos Silva.

On the Phils yesterday: There’s almost no shot to win if you spot Pedro Martinez five runs, but that’s what Jon Lieber surrendered in his fourth-straight loss, which also tied his shortest outing of the season. The offense actually had their chances but couldn’t capitalize, and Bobby Abreu once again failed to come through in a clutch situation.

If blame for the Phils’ fallout can be spread to the players, their approach, passion, the manager, the general manager, etc., then Lieber represents an intangible—that the organization might actually be cursed.

Phans carped that Jon Lieber wasn’t a No. 1, and that’s certainly true now, but based on his performance last season, there’s no reason he couldn’t be this team’s ace and was perfect for Citizen’s Bank Park. Ed Wade will get blamed for Lieber, but shouldn’t. The right-hander’s sharp decline is downright baffling.

He’s also the biggest reason why the Phils are slumping in my opinion. Every five games, you need a rock in the rotation to match the other team’s ace or overmatch a weaker pitcher. Starting pitching is the reason why the team is dropping like stones, and it starts with the heaviest rock, and that’s Lieber. Along with Vicente Padilla, and Robinson Tejeda who’s still far from proven, Lieber represents another uncertain situation every time he steps on the mound. It’s cliche, but I’m a firm believer in the importance of having an ace.

The Phils have no shot at the playoffs if this trend continues.

It’s one of many concerns, but obviously Abreu, Pat Burrell and especially Jim Thome are not producing much in the heart of the order. And I think the team’s impotence against the NL East reinforces the team's lack of guts.

Biggest series of the year
It begins tonight, when red-hot John Smoltz, who was my pick to win the Cy Young, faces ice-cold Vicente Padilla as the Braves come to town. Smoltz is 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA and three complete games in his past four starts. So it’s back-to-back tough pitchers for the Phils, along with a home crowd that could turn hostile if Padilla stumbles early.

Like I said last Friday, watch out for those Bravos. They lost two in a row against the Marlins in Florida, but a sweep or series win in Philadelphia could be the start of their annual sprint to September.

On John Marzano
The thing that separates Comcast SportsNet's John Marzano from the rest of the flock is his ability to see grays. Lately, he’s been on the same crusade as Beerleaguer, urging player accountability, instead of blaming the manager or GM. His opinion of Bobby Abreu is the same as mine, and while some dorky pundit yesterday on Daily News Live insisted that Cholly share blame for Jim Thome’s bases-loaded AB Wednesday night, Marzano, a former player, reminded the nerd that Thome is a veteran and shouldn’t make those mistakes.

In my opinion, the emergence of Marzano’s informed, alternative voice is one of the better Phillies-related stories of the season. There’s nothing sensational about it. I compare his approach to that of Tom Jackson covering football on ESPN, along with Ray Didinger of WIP and NFL Films.