Beerleaguer trade rumor roundtable

Beerleaguer author Jason Weitzel discusses trade possibilities with his stepfather, Martin Smith.

Jason: I’m sitting here looking at the cover of Baseball America. The headline is “Brave New World: Atlanta goes with a wholesale youth movement, led by prospects like Kyle Davies, as it tries for its 14th straight trip to the playoffs.”

I look at this and say “I want this.” I want the Phillies to get younger and compete the way Atlanta does.

Martin: With Clearwater, Reading and Scranton, they’re so far behind the curve, they can’t become the Braves overnight. It’s a whole philosophical overhaul. I’ve played enough sports to know that if you’re 22-65, like Clearwater, it sucks. It totally sucks. Even Cole Hamels … when he got to Reading. he was quoted as saying he was glad to be out of that losing environment. There must be such a negative feeling when you leave the stadium and know that you and your team stink, and it happens on so many levels with the Phils. That much losing – there’s something to be said about that. I don’t know when it went wrong, but it’s all wrong.

Jason: The Phils need to break it down and start doing things the way the Braves do it. I'm a big believer in their method.

Martin: With the Braves, it’s “draft pitching, draft pitching, draft pitching, and always get a young pitcher in a trade.” The second key is patience. You’ve got to have patience. Bobby Cox was patient with Kelly Johnson. He went something like 1-30 to start, Cox was patient, and soon he was player of the week. The other Braves philosophy is “Don’t panic.” Go to the minors. Don’t sign big contracts. Don’t panic. Atlanta won’t go on a spending spree. They can’t. They rarely do a rent-a-player. Their philosophy is bring up the young guys. Baseball American reported that nine of the 15 top prospects in the organization played with Atlanta this season by mid July, and 14 rookies overall. I think the Braves are the elite organization, and it’s not the Oakland A’s. Thirteen in a row. Pheew.

Jason: The Braves are prophets. Sometimes Ed Wade listens to fans too much, even though most people believe the opposite. Maybe it's because they don't have any fans, but the Braves march to a different drummer. They’ve played through injury successfully so many times by plugging in rookies. Can the Phillies do the same with rookies they have in the high farm system?

Martin: Midseason report in Baseball America – the best prospect is Michael Bourn in Reading. Biggest disappointment: Reading third baseman Juan Richardson.

Jason: I disagree. The biggest disappointment has to be Gavin Floyd.

Martin: Yup. It has to be. But he’s still the key. Get him straightened out. Then they have their pitcher. A good Gavin Floyd would be better than Kip Wells. That’s my opinion. Another good story is Eude Brito in Scranton, 12.33 ERA as reliever, 3.02 as a starter. But the key is Floyd. You even said it in your blog … bring him up and let him work under Dubee.

Jason: Let’s cut to the chase and talk trades. Billy Wagner, Vicente Padilla, Ryan Howard, Jim Thome, and recently, Mike Lieberthal and David Bell have been mentioned in trade rumors. Let’s throw out Thome, Lieberthal and Bell because nobody wants them. How about Wagner? If they don’t have a chance to compete, why keep him?

Martin: I think you have to look at the division. It’s so tight. Who scares you the most? Who will win it? It’s still Atlanta. I’m positive Schuerholz will trade for relief pitching. Wildcard? Cubs? Astros? I still think the Phillies have the best lineup in the division. That’s based on Thome healthy, Abreu when he’s hitting, Utley is the best second baseman in the division, J-Roll and Bell field their positions, etc., etc., and Pat the Bat gets hot every so often. But pitching … they don’t have it.

Jason: That’s on paper. It never plays out consistently on the field with this offense. I think Wagner can fetch two prospects from the Red Sox, possibly for thin positions like catcher and third base. I don’t think they can get pitching right now through trades. Kip Wells or Ted Lilly won't help a team that scores two runs or less every third game.

Martin: I don’t think they can either. A.J. Burnett would be good, but they’re still not going to get it done with him. Jason Schmidt – they say his velocity is way, way down. When he does win, it’s all on guile. You can’t buy pitching this year. Mark Redman? Kip Wells? Those guys are getting bombed! Maybe you get lucky with a flash in the pan, but more likely you don’t. Cory Lidle was an exception last year. He was so-so in Cincinnati, got hot with the Phils, and that has worked out until recently.

Jason: Is Thome cooked?

Martin: If we look at the records of all the Hall of Famers, I bet a lot of them have had one bad year, from the 32-35-year-old track. There have been great players that have had awful years. It’s happened, and they’ve recovered. He could be cooked with injuries – or maybe it’s one bad year. Something good could come out of Thome yet – or he could become Dave Kingman.

Jason: Nobody's talking much about Padilla. Do you think they should trade Padilla? I’d do it straight up for a prospect.

Martin: Someone in the Phillies organization has to know where Padilla’s head is at. A guy like Padilla or Daniel Cabrera in Baltimore – when they’re on, they’re good. Heading into the 2004 season, I would have said Padilla was the best pitcher in the organization. But he’s a problem that’s tough to solve. I’d trade him if the deal was right. You pointed it out in your blog … they gave him patience, and he hasn’t given up a run in two outings when he absolutely, positively had to turn it around. Padilla’s got stuff at times.

Jason: One unpopular trade rumor involves Ryan Howard for pitcher Kip Wells and catcher Humberto Cota of the Pirates. If the Phils can muscle out the good young catcher in the Pirates organization instead of Cota -- Ryan Doumit -- I’d consider it. For me, the only deal for Howard would involve  a stud young catcher and a pitcher.

Martin: Pittsburgh apparently has three good catchers. They say Doumit has a wonderful swing, but so did Von Hayes.

If I was in charge, I’d go forward with this team for now, keep Howard, but trade Wagner at the last possible minute. And if they didn’t do it (make the playoffs), I’d overhaul like you couldn’t believe. Replacing David Bell and Mike Lieberthal isn’t a glaring need immediately, but in the offseason, it needs to be addressed. Eventually, you need to get a third baseman and a catcher. In terms of pitching, Tejeda has been a fluke. I wish it was Gavin Floyd up here, not him. I’m of the opinion they shouldn’t make any moves … unless it’s Billy Wagner.

Jason: My thoughts on Wagner … he must go at the 11th hour of the deadline to fetch the best price, whether they’re in contention or out of it. Boston has a young catcher named …

Martin: Schloppic or something.

Jason: Sputnik? Shmomo? Do you think they can compete for the playoffs without Wagner? I do.

Martin: Yes, but he’s one of the best relievers in the National League. UU has been pretty damn encouraging. If they trade Billy Wagner, fans will say they’re packing it in. I wouldn’t say that.

Jason: I wouldn’t either. Even the best teams make trades to get younger.

Martin: Gavin Floyd is a big key in all this. He was on the cover of the “Baseball America Super Baseball Register 2003” for God’s sake. On paper, the Phillies still look good. There should be no weaknesses in that lineup. But Atlanta doesn’t lose 1-0 games the way the Phils do. Go figure.

Jason: Well, we covered just about everything. A recap …The Phillies must get younger; philosophical change in order; trade Wagner for prospects; pull somebody aside that speaks Padilla’s language and find out what’s the deal; Gavin Floyd is a big key; hold on to Howard. As for next season, overhaul like you couldn’t believe if the playoffs aren’t attained. Wholesale change either way.

Comments

[Tom Goodman]

Terrifc post, Jason. Absolutely terrific.

[Tom Goodman]

Is your step-father available for the GM position?

[J. Weitzel]

Thanks. I hope it was entertaining and informative.

Of course, I posted it before I learned of the blockbuster Worrell - Kata deal. Keeping Tomas and Ramon on their toes I guess. Who knows? Probably a deal for a bench option for next season, or 3B in case Bell goes. What else can it be? I dunno.

Like you said on Swing, another move accompanied by the always popular "Our scouts like this guy" while the rest of us look at the stat sheets and say "What's there to like?"

[sandy]

Love the drawings. Looks right like Martin after a couple of wines!

[David]

Some great advice in there.

I find it interesting that Larry Bowa was let go because he affected the team negatively. I wonder what the explanation is this year, now that we have THREE players (one now traded) with mental problems: Tim Worrell and Cory Lidle getting time off for personal issues, and a little item in the Daily News 7/22/05 that Charlie Manuel thinks that Abreu is "worn down mentally."

I love Billy Wagner but agree that he's expendable, since Uggie looks like he still has the stuff to take over the job.

[Tom G]

Nice post Jason, I've often thought of doing something in a similar format with my brother. David - as for Bowa, I am certain that if he was still the manager the team would actually be worse than it is now. They were going nowhere with him, they had to do something (true, the players are more to blame, but you cant replace all 25 at once).

[Tom Goodman]

The whole Cory Lidle time off business sneaked up on me. I hadn't heard about it until the comments on a few blogs. Does anyone have any insights?

[pawnking]

There's a review of the book Scout's Honor on The Hardball Times website. It gives good insight as to Atlanta's philosophy of building a team, minor leaguers, etc.

However,I disagree with a whole lot of it. Frankly, the most productive players for Atlanta in the last 15 years have been:
Smoltz - who was acquired in a trade and was considered to be the jewel of the Tigers' system,
Maddox - signed as a F.A.
Glavin - drafted
Chipper Jones - Drafted #1 overall in his year
Andrew Jones - Signed as an international FA
Gary Sheffield - signed as a FA

Also, remember that Atlanta started spending a lot of $$$ in the early 90s, having one of the top 3 or 4 payrolls in baseball in the early to mid 90s. Now they can't spend that much, but they spend plenty on international scouting, where they have acquired a lot of their promising young talent.

Let's not forget, as well, the Mazzone Effect, which might count for as much as 1/2 a run per game, or 82 runs a season, or 8 wins a year. That's nothing to sneeze at. Look at it this way: If Leo was the Phils pitching coach for the past 3 years and NOT the Braves' coach, the 16 game swing between the two teams would have mean the Phils winning the division in 2004, 2003, and within shouting distance in 2002.

Overall, I agree with the Braves' theories about finding a winning formula and sticking with it. Continuity also plays a large part of their success. But they spend so much more on on-field payroll, and also on scouting, and minor league expenses, it's not fair to compare their success with the A's.

As far as who to emulate, I do think that the Phils should spend more on international scouting, as that is the largest loophole in baseball right now. Otherwise, I don't have a big problem with what they're doing and their success. Given their payroll abilities, I actually think they've done fairly well for themselves.

[That Dude from Philly]

It's probably unfair to compare Oakland and Atlanta, becuase even ATl has much bigger budget than Oak, however the similarities are striking when you compare. Both organizations #1 have a PLAN. This can't be overestimated, whether it's drafting college players with a history in Oak's case or always ensuring they draft or get pitching in trades is another example.

The Phillies have been somewhat "lucky" with their minor league system churning out Myers, Utley, Howard, Rolins, however most of those guys were upper echelon picks. The Phils have failed miserably in rd's 3+.

I live in Chas, SC and get a chance to watch the Braves Single A team come in alot, it's amazing the sheer "organization" for lack of a better word the team has.

The Phillies problem has SO much more to do than switching GM's.