Beerleaguer - Phillies Blog, Baseball News, Trade Rumors & Spirits

Oswalt will follow Pedro's path as mid-season pickup

Roy Oswalt's agent, Bob Garber, confirmed to CBSSports and reporters that his client will forgo reported offers and interest by the Rangers, Red Sox, Reds and Cardinals and try to sign midseason. [Link]

The 34-year-old former Phillies right-hander is considered the best free agent who remains unsigned. Oswalt was a midseason pick-up of the Phillies in 2010 and dominated the second half, pitching to a 1.74 ERA and 7-1 mark for the Phils after his trade from Houston.

Beerleaguer: Bobby Brown's "My Prerogative" comes to mind in all it's New Jack glory. Rolling Stone dubbed it "a grumpy and undeniably adult dance it." Oswalt is kind of a grump, too, from what I can gather, hinting at retirement two seasons ago, turning down offers this winter, even ones close to home. It's actually a little annoying his name will continue to cycle through the rumor mill through the summer as teams make bids for pitching. I wonder if the Phillies planted the seed for Oswalt to wait until the dealine when the landscape will be completely different around baseball.

Mark this down: Oswalt's decision to target a mid-season return increases the odds that he pitches for the Phillies this season. Book it. The Phillies always make a huge move, and nobody knows that more than Oswalt.

Wolever promoted to assistant GM, amateur scouting

The Phillies have announced that Marti Wolever, who oversaw the drafts of Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels and others, has moved up the front office chain to become Assistant General Manager, Amateur Scouting. Wolever served as the Phillies' director of scouting last season and has been involved in the Phillies' scouting operations for nine seasons. His career began as a scout with the Tigers in 1984. Wolever essentially slides into the void left by Chuck Lamar, who resigned from his post as assistant GM, player development and scouting, in September. Most recently, Wolever has been involved in the scouting of Cuban defectors Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler.

Healthy Contreras will be eighth-inning x-factor

Todd Zolecki reported on perhaps the first "significant" positive development of spring: a crisp bullpen session by Jose Contreras.

Contreras, 40, took the mound Tuesday for the first time since September elbow surgery and "did fine" and threw "very, very well," according to pitching coach Rich Dubee. Zolecki reports the Phillies are now hopeful Contreras will be ready by opening day. If so, Contreras, who appeared in only 17 games and last pitched on June 17, would likely win back the set-up job out of spring training.

Watch live: Ryan Howard press conference at 1 p.m.

Knock on wood: Reports suggest this guy is progressing ahead of schedule.

Beerleaguer for breakfast: Lukewarm questions of ST

Some baseball sites use this time to compile their "burning" questions. But on Beerleaguer, we cut through the fluff and report on only moderately important news, and by “report,” I mean not actually do any reporting.

First up: Domonic Brown, the focus of several centerpiece features yesterday that adopted one of two themes: the possibility that Brown could break camp with a spot on the team, or surveying his career based on 280 major league plate appearances to make the case that the 24-year-old top prospect from a year ago - in all the land, mind you - is something of a bust.

Welcome to Clearwater, where flights of fancy grow wings. One glimpse at the left-field landscape is all one needs to determine there’s no room for Brown, even if he lights up the Grapefruit League. John Mayberry is out of options. Laynce Nix signed a guaranteed deal. Ty Wigginton can play the corners. Juan Pierre was obviously brought in to round out the edges and add speed. Ruben Amaro has said as much, saying that Brown would ideally spend the entire season in Triple-A.

As for living up to the hype, the Phillies bear the brunt of responsibility for bringing him up too soon. If he spends the entire season in Triple-A, honing his baseball skills, in preparation for joining the mix next season, he’s on the Ryan Howard / Chase Utley timeline for arriving in his age 25 season.

Brown was a top story last spring. Today, he should be regarded as a non-issue.

Ibanez hoping to find fountain of youth in NY

The Yankees have finalized a one-year, $1.1 million deal, with incentives, with good Phillie Raul Ibanez. The Yankees plan to use him in a left-handed platoon at DH. [Link]

Beerleaguer: Let’s look at the pros and cons from the Yankees’ side, starting with the reasons why it won’t work, beginning with his age. He’s 39 and was one of the least productive players at a “slugging” position in all of baseball last season, hitting .245/.289/.419 overall, which is woeful for a left fielder. His numbers against righties, including a pedestrian .440 SLG, were no great shakes, either. Compare that to Jim Thome, for example, a .261/.379/.523 hitter over the last three seasons in the DH role (statistically, Thome was arguably the best DH in baseball over the last three seasons).

Be that as it may, Yankees GM Brian Cashman picked Ibanez over a handful of other options and his instincts are typically sharp. Moving to the American League will help. By the end of last season, he was toast. We know Ibanez cheats for a fastball more than anyone in the game, according to scouts who talked to Sports Illustrated during the season, but when he got ahold of one, he tagged it as hard as anyone on the Phillies. That’s going to play well at Yankees Stadium. Plus, if the Yankees can surround him with some protection – Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson – he’s going to see more pitches than he did in Philadelphia.

Whether he succeeds or not, the Yankees are a good fit.

Inflexible Manuel must dissolve veteran loyalties

It wasn’t just the coin flip of a short series or a banged-up offense that ended the Phillies’ season. Charlie Manuel’s long leash to struggling vets and unbending conviction to left-right match-ups loomed large.

The Phillies’ approach at the plate isn’t the only area in need of an overhaul. It’s time for Manuel to change, too. The bottom of the eighth in a do-or-die Game 5 of the NLDS illustrated his weakness. Placido Polanco, a feeble hitter since May, stayed in the game over a pinch hitter and was quickly dusted aside. Two batters later, Ross Gload, who hadn’t homered in over a year, hit for Roy Halladay instead of John Mayberry Jr., owner of one of baseball’s best second-half slugging percentages and the best bet to put the Phillies back in the game with one swing, even against the righty Chris Carpenter.

Manuel had the opportunity to use Mayberry against left-hander Arthur Rhodes in Game 4, opting instead for Raul Ibanez. He also took a beating over his in-game tactical decision to give Ryan Howard the green light on a 3-0 count with only nine outs remaining in Game 5.

All winter long, we've read about the preciousness of outs and the need for the aging offense to adjust. Aside from a few moves to add versatility to the bench, the front office decided to leave the bats alone despite two seasons in which it appeared they had run out of bullets in October.

Like it or not, it’s the hand Manuel has been dealt. Now he must put his players in the right position to win. Ibanez, one of his greatest devotions, is gone, but Polanco and a host of veterans remain. He can no longer lead blindly based on past success.

Phillies extend Kendrick with $7.5M deal through 2013

The Phillies on Sunday agreed to a two-year, $7.5 million extension with right-hander Kyle Kendrick, adding payroll certainty through 2013.

Kendrick, 27, avoided arbitration with the club in January and signed a $3.585 million deal through 2012. According to the club, his new deal, set to run through next season, includes performance bonuses. Kendrick, who is beginning his sixth season with the Phillies, went 8-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 34 games, including 15 starts, and is expected to earn starter innings this spring as the club decides on a fifth starter. Kendrick will have another year of arbitration eligibility in 2014 before becoming a free agent in 2015.

Beerleaguer: Readers are already wondering whether this is a prelude to another deal, since cost certainty would be a greater incentive for a smaller club, perhaps one positioned to ride Kendrick for an entire season in a starting rotation. It's a good bet that Kendrick's value will never be higher. We know they're trying to unload payroll. We know they've shopped Joe Blanton. We've already read how the Phillies were the "mystery team" for A.J. Burnett and have kept the lines of communication open with Roy Oswalt, suggesting the flame for a fourth, front-line starter still burns. And why not? The embarassment of pitching riches led to a franchise-record 102 wins last season.

Phillies pitchers and catchers get back to business

The road to October, and redemption, begins today as pitchers and catchers check in to camp at Bright House Field in Clearwater. The first official workout starts Sunday.

Burnett deal could open door for Ibanez in NY

The Yankees have agreed to send right-hander A.J. Burnett and $20 million to the Pirates in exchange for a pair of prospects, according to FoxSports' Ken Rosenthal. With Burnett's contract off the books, the Yankees could finally have the flexibility to add free agent former Phillie Raul Ibanez, who has been identified as their primary target for a part-time DH role. The Pirates meanwhile are reportedly on the hook for $13 million of Burnett's remaining salary. The deal is reportedly pending league approval.

Phillies' history working against Worley, Stutes

History is rife with "flash-in-the-pan" rookie pitchers who dazzled in their debut only to be dealt a dose of reality their next season.

There's no greater tug-of-war than the subjective vs. objective battle being waged over the sophomore-season expectations for Vance Worley. On one hand, you have long-time Phillies fans, like our own bay_area_phan, who've seen guys like Worley time and time again. "I have nothing terribly specific to base my low expectations of Worley on," he posted Thursday in our comment thread. "I just base it on thirty-plus years of seeing Phillies flash-in-the-pan rookie pitchers who come crashing back to earth in year two."

Data houses see it differently. Of the Phillies' four breakout players - Worley, Michael Stutes, John Mayberry and Antonio Bastardo - projections for Worley are the most favorable. Bill James' Baseball Information Solutions sees a 3.86 ERA from Worley with fewer walks. Baseball Prospectus PECOTA system came to a 4.23 conclusion. Even if he settles somewhere in the middle, it's enough staying power to be a good fourth starter in this league.

Using the same metrics, Stutes, who was luckier than not, according to the advanced metrics, is expected to fall back to the fringes: a 4.24 ERA by James and a 4.52 ERA like PECOTA projects will make it difficult to stave off challenges from the likes of the Phillies' next wave of rookies, like Justin De Fratus and Phillippe Aumont. From our own resident pessimist bay_area_phan: "Like his stuff; don't like his wildness or extreme fly ball tendencies. And his peripherals say he was pretty lucky to have the success that he did."

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Beerleaguer for breakfast: Soler a 'long shot'

Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com "sullies" the recent buzz surrounding Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler, reminding readers the Phillies have never awarded large bonuses to international prospects. The Phillies have had a long-standing interest in Soler; that much hasn't changed, reports Salisbury. The Phillies definiltely like him. But industry sources for Salisbury estimate Soler's price tag could reach $25 million. Read the rest of piece here, where Salisbury name drops former Phillie Josue Perez (career .639 minor league OPS).

Inquirer: Amaro confirms interest in Jorge Soler

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. confirmed to Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer Thursday that his team has interest in Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler. [Link]

Beerleaguer: The legend of this faceless, young savior (pictured right) grows and grows, doesn't it? And when I say faceless, I mean faceless. It's tough to even track down an image of the dude using Google Images. If you believe the hype, Soler would be the fastest way to put the Phillies' farm system back on the map. By way of a quick scouting report: Ken Rosenthal's source says he could wind up at first base while the Baseball America guys are split on his speed, saying he's either above average or average at best. He's reportedly 6-foot-3, 205-pounds of blossoming power and a good arm suited for right field, although BA's sources are mixed on his outfield instincts.

The Yankees and Phillies are going the hardest, according to Yahoo! Sports. Wherever he winds up, the 19-year-old is likely to start his career in Class A, Baseball America says.

Data houses conservative about Phillies 'sophomores'

Number crunchers predict "second-year" slumps by breakout players John Mayberry Jr., Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes and Vance Worley. We start by measuring the expectations for Mayberry and Bastardo in Part 1, and attempt to put these projections in the proper context.

Most of the credible advanced projections have now been published, including Baseball Prospectus' terrific annual and Bill James' Baseball Information Solutions kit, numbers freely accessible through FanGraphs' player profile pages. It's no surprise these data houses haven't gone "all-in" on the Phillies' sophomores. When you think about it, they basically all had career years, posting better numbers over a full season in the Majors than they did at any point in the minors. It doesn't compute.

Individually, Mayberry, whose .513 slugging percentage was significantly better than his career average, calculates as the "tweener" he's mostly been throughout his career. James, who is attacking this purely on past data, sees only 159 plate appearances in Mayberry's 2012 future, which everyone knows is too low given the situation in left field and first base, in addition to a .257/.313/.439 diminished slash line. Prospectus' PECOTA system is even less optimistic (.249/.310/.451), but challenge the numbers in their synopsis by saying "it would be a mistake to write off the very real improvements … he tweaked his batting stance, and the results should stick."

Bastardo might be the toughest read of the four. He appeared in far more games than at any point in career and fell off a cliff in September (11.05 ERA, 2.18 WHIP, .310 BAA). Charlie Manuel blamed a shaken psyche, others might simply point toward fatigue and the rising workload of a young player. PECOTA sees a regression and numbers along the lines of a B-list bullpen lefty. James has him pegged for a still-solid 9.96 K/9 and a reduced walk rate of 3.86 K/BB, numbers good enough to stay in the back-end of the Phillies' bullpen.

Honestly, nobody knows what to expect, which is precisely why the Phillies signed veteran safety net Chad Qualls, and it's why Laynce Nix, Juan Pierre and host of others will jockey with Mayberry in camp.

Stutes and Worley are on deck for part 2.

Phillies scripting plot twists as camp draws close

Pitchers and catchers officially report in four days, but there are already signs of life as players, personnel and equipment trucks have started trickling into Clearwater. Here's your pre-Spring Training download.

NOT CLEATWATER -- Today, and over the next few days, you'll read several "executive summaries" like this one, identifying top-level issues for fans who disengaged in October, as the Phillies get back into the swing of things in Clearwater. Earlier this week, CSNPhilly.com colleague Jim Salisbury teed up readers with the seven top storylines worth following this spring, starting with Chase Utley's shaky status as a No. 3 hitter, followed on Tuesday by Ryan Howard and the first base situation. Salisbury will look at the bullpen today, followed by the rotation, Cole Hamels' contract situation, the offense and lastly the outfield. All great summaries, so check them out.

On Beerleaguer, the Spring Training debate always funnels down to the granular fringes, highlighted by the battle over the final bench and bullpen spots. In a lot of ways, it's going to be the same story as last spring, with a few twists. This year, Ryan Howard plays the part of Chase Utley as the injured superstar eyeing an early-to-mid-season comeback. Last season, the Phils briefly considered Luis Castillo as Utley's replacement before settling on ho-hum Wilson Valdez, with Michael Martinez and Pete Orr breaking camp as ho-hum reserves. It's a little meatier this spring, with Jim Thome, Ty Wigginton and John Mayberry cast in a mix-and-match role.

In addition, left field is the new right field, where most people have a rooting interest in "someone," this year's "someone" being Mayberry, to build on last season's strong finish and to win the lion's share of starts. It's safe to assume most readers wanted Domonic Brown to melt faces last spring and seize the open opportunity in right, but when a thumb injury knocked him out of the running, readers were just as willing to let Ben Francisco give it a shot. Now they have Hunter Pence, Francisco is a Blue Jay and the Phillies "plan to keep him (Brown) in Triple-A for the majority of next season." Cursed thumb, right?

In the rotation, they're down to three aces, which is bad news for retailers with overstocked Four Aces t-shirts. It's also bad news for fifth Beatle Joe Blanton, who was included, by Phillies mandate, into all the photo ops. Talk about an elephant in the room.

Jonathan Papelbon is in, Ryan Madson is out, and if I were to name the top Phillies storyline from this long off-season, it would be the weird saga in which Madson reportedly had a four-year, $44 million deal on the table to return to Philadelphia and wound up with a one-year, $8.5 million deal with the Reds.

But enough about this. Time to focus on what's really important: identifying which players grew off-season beards.

Could Phillies sling a deal for DFA'd INF DeWitt?

Blake DeWitt, 26, failed to live up to the Cubs' expectations and was designated for assignment last week. The Cubs are running out of time to work a trade or else be on the hook for a portion of his salary.

Beerleaguer: The Phils may say they're booked solid, but Major League-capable infield depth is still a glaring need. DeWitt posted a .265/.305/.413 line with five home runs in 243 plate appearances in 2011, splitting time evenly at left field, second base and third base. In parts of four seasons with Chicago and Los Angeles, he can be categorized as a below-average utility player specializing in second and third base. However, the Phils would be picking up a little more bat than they're accustomed to getting, specifically over Wilson Valdez, another first-time arbitration-eligible player who was tendered a new deal and then cut loose. DeWitt and the Cubs agreed to a $1.1 million salary earlier this winter. The Phillies could wait for spring training to address the infield, but might want to jump on the opportunity to get a 26-year-old infielder who can hit a little. Ironically, DeWitt was moved to clear room for Adrian Cardenas, who was picked up on waivers.

Cardenas was traded to the A's in the Joe Blanton deal, who actually makes some sense here, in combination with other pieces and incentives, in a starter-for-infielder salary-dump swap, especially if the Phils are serious about Roy Oswalt.

Pundits show no love for Phillies' top thumpers

Power is at a premium, yet the Phillies' top home run hitters at the four highest levels of the minors fail to earn any respect among industry insiders and enthusiasts.

Here's an odd dichotomy. Big league power has fallen off a cliff, yet the Phillies' prospects who can actually take a pitch yard, right now, won't even get a look at a big league camp and haven't cracked a prospect magazine or Web site top 30. And the weirdest part is we're living in the post-"Moneyball" era where an Oscar-worthy film informed captive audiences that production, any way you can get it, is all that matters.

It's discrimination! The older, bruising first baseman is part of the great unwashed.

Granted, a high slugging percentage is part of the job description at first. But there's this question: How many home runs does a plodding first baseman need to rake in order to meet the job requirements as a prospect in the current iteration of the Major Leagues? Twenty-four? That's how many Matt Rizzotti hit in Reading, good for third in the Eastern League. It's also the number Cody Overbeck totaled between Reading and Lehigh Valley.

Rizzotti can't field. Overbeck can, a little, and at 25, is still young enough to develop. Of all the prospects, he seems to be the most overlooked. They both mash, clearly. Yet neither has received so much as an invite to Clearwater where Jim Thome, of all people, will strap on his first baseman's glove for the first time in years. The Phillies seem to be quite serious about this, by the way.

Class-A had its own set of productive Phillies first base farmhands you've never read about: Darin Ruf hit 17 homers for Clearwater. The Sally League had Jim Murphy, who hit 22. The next Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder? No. But good enough for an honorable mention in the footnotes of these lists? Why not? Why never?

OK, OK, save me a seat on the D-Train bandwagon

After two months, I'm starting to get more on board with the idea of Dontrelle Willis as a lefty specialist out of the Phillies' bullpen.

I just took a glance at his situational stats, because those are the kind of things that I do when nobody is in the office to talk baseball with. I'm going to focus on 2010 and 2011, because I feel like that sample is most indicative of the Dontrelle Willis we're getting.

Here are Willis' stats the last 2 years against southpaw hitters:

2010: Faced 86 left-handed batters ... allowed 16 hits, including only 3 for extra bases ... had a K/BB ratio of 30/8. ... in all, allowed a line of .216/.294/.244 to lefties.

2011: Faced 60 left-handed batters ... allowed 7 hits, including only 2 for extra bases ... had a K/BB ratio of 20/2 ... in all, allowed a line of .127/.169/.183 to lefties.

In fairness, if you take a look at what Willis did on pitches 1-through-15 over the last two seasons, that should quell your excitement a little bit. But still, I am finally coming around to the low-risk, high-reward signing, even if I'm two months too late.

Minor move: Sardinha catches on with Orioles

Minor league backstop Dane Sardinha, the Phillies'' third catcher behind Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider for the last two seasons, has signed a minor league deal with Baltimore. [Source]

Sardinha, 32, will be most remembered for banging out three home runs in 39 at bats while filling in for Chooch midway through 2010 while Chooch was recovering from a head injury. He filled in, less successfully, again last season, starting 12 games while Ruiz and Schneider suffered successive injuries, posting a .219/.419/.250 over 43 plate appearances. He saw only sporadic action after his June 24 assignment to the minors and finished the Triple-A season hitting only .140/.238/.172. When September call-ups were announced, the Phillies opted for Erik Kratz instead. The Orioles are his fourth team.

Beerleaguer: Kratz, Tuffy Gosewisch, Steven Lerud and Sebastian Valle (in that order in the chain) will be among the first arrivals as camp opens in just under two weeks. Sardinha is a pretty late signing. Pickings are getting slim. If you're a guy like Sardinha, and you haven't been invited to camp yet, it might be time to start faxing the independent leagues.

Past, present Phillies factor into Caribbean clincher

The Dominican Republic, represented by winter league champion Escogido, cliched the 54th annual round-robin Caribbean Series on Monday.

The Dominican actually lost to former Phillies non-roster spring invitee Yorman Bazardo and the Venezuelan team 7-0 Monday, but because of Puerto Rico's 4-3 defeat of Mexico, the D.R. clinched the tournament with games still remaining. The Phillies were represented on the championship squad by only one current Phil: left-hander Raul Valdes, a non-roster spring invitee who earned the win with six shutout innings in Saturday's win over Puerto Rico. In addition, left-hander Juan Perez, who was a member of last season's bullpen and signed a minor league deal with Milwaukee in December, was also on the championship squad.

Other Caribbean Series participants with past ties to the Phillies include outfielder Freddy Guzman (DR), infielder Pablo Ozuna (DR), infielder Oscar Robles (MEX), outfielder Karim Garcia (MEX), outfielder Chris Roberson (MEX), right-hander Nelson Figueroa (PR), left-hander Bobby Livingston (PR - a Phillies for about 24 hours before his signing was voided by baseball), first baseman Randy Ruiz (PR), outfielder Jorge Padilla (PR), infielder Luis Maza (VZ) and right-hander Francisco Butto (VZ).

Phillies right-handed prospect Tyson Brummett, who split last season between Reading and Lehigh Valley, pitched 4 2-3 innings Friday for the Venezuelan squad and earned a no decision.